What is the US Doing in Greece?

The current joint defense and cooperation agreement between the USA and Greece, mutually signed on 5 October 2021, has been extended for five years. Likewise, a five-year strategic defense agreement was signed between France and Greece.
In fact, it is in the nature of international relations that countries make such agreements with each other, which is considered normal in the context of mutual interest relations. However, in the last period, the Greek Government, the said agreements; He brought the idea that it would serve to "increase the deterrence of Greece" against Turkey, which is one of the important building blocks of the NATO Alliance, of which Greece is a member, as a perception operation, on the world agenda.
What is meant by deterrence here is undoubtedly Turkey's 'casus belli' decision. Currently, it is Turkey's determined stance that binds Greece's hands and arms. By including third states in the Aegean Sea arena by Greece, it seems to have sought to develop a solution in its own favor.
In this context, efforts are made to bring the perception that Turkey is the "greatest threat to Greece" to the agenda. In this sense, let's talk about the developments that led Turkey to the decision of "casus belli" in the context of territorial waters.
As it is known, the territorial seas of Turkey and Greece were accepted as 3 miles each for the Aegean Sea in the Treaty of Lausanne. This situation was also demonstrated in detail with the protocol dated 3 November 1926 of the Boundary Drawing Commission, in which the two countries were involved.
Greece increased its territorial waters from 3 miles to 6 miles in 1936, on the grounds of eliminating Italy's expansionist ambitions at that time. Turkey, with a belated move, declared that it had extended its territorial waters to 6 miles for the Aegean Sea only in 1964. The 6-mile decision, which both countries finally declared unilaterally, is actually this situation that upset the balance of Lausanne. It is against the Treaty of Lausanne. It can be said that the decision to extend the territorial seas of the two countries to 6 miles; ultimately damaged Turkey's interests in the Aegean Sea to a certain extent.
While the problems between the two countries, especially Cyprus and the continental shelf, continued, Greece made an exit that would increase the tension in 1984 and announced the 'New Defense Concept'. According to this concept, Greece; He declared that the primary danger for his country is not the Warsaw Pact countries, but Turkey, with which he is a member of NATO, as the primary threat!
At that time, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou was disturbed by Turkey's military superiority over Greece, and in order to rationalize his own defense expenditures, he took an approach to "threat" Turkey in domestic and foreign policy. He escaped easily. It was the first time in the history of the Alliance that one country under the same Alliance described another as a threat. In the simplest sense, it has damaged the spirit of the Alliance. Thus, the issue was brought to the agenda of NATO.
The fifth article, which defines collective defense in NATO's founding treaty, was written according to the existence of an external threat. No one had foreseen that the two allies would see each other as 'enemies'. It was contrary to the essence of the Alliance for two allied countries in the same alliance to see each other as enemies. This meaningless threat definition put forward by Greece against Turkey, in a sense, was not even considered worthy of being brought to the agenda in terms of NATO, and the issue was closed by itself.
In the 1990s, when Papandreou was reinstated as prime minister, the Greek parliament ratified the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on 1 June 1995. The Greek Assembly also authorized the government to issue a decree to expand territorial waters in the Aegean at a time it deems appropriate. This agreement, which Turkey did not sign and therefore is not a party to, is not a valid document for Turkey in this respect. The fact that Greece signed it certainly does not allow it to take unilateral decisions.
While even the extension of the territorial waters to 6 miles had created a situation against Turkey to a certain extent, now Greece's desire to extend it to 12 miles and its pursuits pointed to a disturbing situation. The decision of 12 miles meant that Turkey could hardly reach the Aegean Sea. Turkey's acceptance of being subject to the permission granted by Greece, even for navigation in international waters, was out of the question.
As a matter of fact, in order to demonstrate Turkey's clear stance, the Turkish Government brought the issue to the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM). On 8 June 1995, the GNAT decided to authorize the government to take all kinds of measures, including military measures, in order to protect and defend Turkey's vital interests, in case Greece decided to unilaterally expand its territorial waters beyond 6 miles in the Aegean. In other words, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey gave the Turkish Government a permanent directive that the expansion of Greece's territorial waters beyond 6 miles was considered "a reason for war (casus belli)", and this was an international issue.presented to the knowledge of the Amian.
As we understand from the recent developments, it has become a priority issue for Greece to resolve the territorial sea issue by extending it to 12 miles, as desired by Greece, before other problems in the Aegean.
In this context, the Greek Government has served the world with the agreements it signed separately with the USA and France in the last October, almost as alliance agreements made against Turkey. According to Greece, these bilateral agreements were signed to increase deterrence against Turkey. Apart from the statements of Greece, the signing ceremonies of the USA and France and the 'ambiguous' discourses after them are also meaningful.
France's policy of protecting Greece against Turkey in the historical perspective continued after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, especially in the Turkish War of Independence, the Greek forces were reinforced with French planes against the Turkish armies. Rafale warplanes, Belharra frigate sales and the pursuit of military bases should be seen as extensions of traditional French policy. Today, we would like to touch on the American opening to Greece rather than France.
In this context, let's take a look at the bases opened by Greece for the use of the USA.
Greece started to receive military aid from the United States within the framework of the Truman Doctrine, which was declared by the US President Truman in 1947, within the scope of aiding Turkey and Greece. Similar to Turkey's allocation of the Incirlik base to the United States under the terms of the Cold War through bilateral agreements, Greece also allocated some of its bases to the United States for use.
The most important of these bases is Soudabay Naval and Air Base. This military base on the island of Crete has been serving the American Navy elements anchored in the port of Soudabay since the 1950s. Today, this port, which also hosts the American 6th Fleet, is the only port in the Mediterranean region that has the means and facilities to provide logistic support to nuclear aircraft carriers. There are no other Mediterranean ports with similar capabilities. With the new agreement, this base will be rebuilt by the USA. EP-3E aerial surveillance, C-17 and C-130 transport aircraft, F-16 warplanes, and over 1,000 US Marines will be deployed in and around Soudabay. In fact, nothing has changed compared to the past.
Aktion Air Base in western Greece, similar to Turkey's Konya Air Base, serves as a forward deployment base for NATO Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft (AWACS) within NATO flight mission planning. Although not within the scope of the agreement, it can be put into use to provide additional service to American forces when necessary.
RQ4 Global Hawk high altitude (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are deployed at Thessaloniki (Amigdhaleon) and Kavala (Sedes) Air Bases in northern Greece, as part of the US's reconnaissance surveillance needs.
Larissa, located in the middle of the main continent of Greece, is a fighter jet base where the USA can deploy MQ9 unmanned aerial vehicles and F-22 aircraft as part of exercises. Presumably the MQ9 will be used as a continuous talk base.
Volos (Stefanovikeio) land aviation aerodrome is located close to Larissa, where the USA plans to deploy around 500 military personnel and 35 helicopters when necessary.
It is planned to open the Araxos jet planes base in Greece for the use of the Americans, and to transport around 50 tactical nuclear warheads from Incirlik, depending on the need.
The construction of a naval base in Syros, an island in the Aegean Sea, is on the agenda. Likewise, the construction of helicopter/airplane airports on the islands of Karpatos and Kayminos is in question.
Greece acts with the thought of disrupting the "disarmed island" status of the island of Iskiri (Skyros), which can fulfill the role of a stationary aircraft carrier at a point that may block the Dardanelles, as per the treaties. In this context, it tries to make the United States a partner in its action against international law by ensuring the deployment of American forces on this island, which it has de facto armed in violation of the treaties. For now, the USA did not take kindly to Greece's offer in this direction.
Alexandroupolis Port, located in Western Thrace, very close to the Turkish border, naturally disturbed Turkey and came to the fore. We know that the US is reconstructing this port primarily as a liquefied gas storage centre. USA; It aims to bring the liquefied gas of its own production to this port by tankers, to transport it through pipelines to Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine and the Balkans when necessary, to partially eliminate the dependence of the region on Russian gas, and to support the sale of US gas. In addition, in order to protect this port and to project power to allied countries when necessary, there is a European similarity only found in Germany.  The helicopter is about to open its assembly/disassembly centre. Plans are being made for Alexandroupoli to become the main deployment center of American forces for Bulgaria, Ukraine and Romania.
The USA intends to make permanent the military weapons, ammunition, equipment and vehicles it brought to the aforementioned bases within the scope of planned exercises, especially the military build-up in Alexandroupoli.
The problem of not being able to get involved in the 2014 Russian-Ukrainian war and not being able to prevent the Russian occupation lies at the basis of the US's latest base acquisition policy. As a matter of fact, on March 18, 2014, the USA and its allies remained "silent" in the face of Russia, which annexed Crimea in front of the eyes of the world. NATO, which developed close relations with Ukraine and opened the way for membership in this country, lost its superiority in the Black Sea against the Russians with the Russians' attack on the Crimea.
At the September 2014 Wales Summit in counter-action, the Allies; NATO has declared that it will return to the understanding of collective defense and has implicitly decided to take the necessary measures against the Russian threat. Subsequently, with the decisions taken at the 2016 Warsaw Summit, NATO military build-up was made within the framework of the Preparedness Action Plan for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. Also, the USA; It reinforced its bases in Romania and Bulgaria.
On the other hand, it should be noted that these military agglomerations are too small to be taken into account when compared to the Cold War military base structures and the number of soldiers kept under arms. The number of NATO and US soldiers to be found in all these military bases and facilities, including Greece, is not over 20,000.
The number of soldiers participating in the Zapad 2021 exercise, which was held by the Russian Federation on the Belarus border between 10-16 September 2021 and where Western countries were not even invited as 'observers', is around 200,000. In the scenario of this exercise, which was carried out for the common defense of Russia and Belarus, naturally the "West" was included in the definition of the adversary. Such Russian exercises are closely followed by the Hybrid Wars Monitoring Group, formed by Ukraine, which thinks that it may face a Russian attack in the Donbas region at any time.
At the first stage, it is seen that the NATO force issue will also be very insufficient against Russia. However, it is necessary to plan the sea, land, air and railway connections, where the forces will be transferred quickly, to complete the infrastructure needs in advance, and to be built in peacetime as priority capabilities in a possible war. It is nothing more than preliminary preparation that the USA and NATO are trying to do.
In the news in the Turkish press, it has been rightly stated that the US's deployment and concentration in its bases in Greece, when considered together with July 15, felt uncomfortable. Let's conclude by saying that every country that thinks it is surrounded will make its operational plans according to the worst possible scenario.
In recent years, from the perspective of the United States, three issues have come to the fore that have disrupted the course of Turkish-American relations. These:
1. President Erdogan's growing, friendly relationship with Putin (Russia),
2. With the operations carried out by Turkey, it put the American ally Kurds in a difficult position in Syria, damaging the Kurdish-American relationship,
3. The prevailing opinion in the Turkish public opinion that the USA was behind the coup attempt of 15 July 2016.
Prior to this, the March 1st Permit crisis, which was experienced in 2003 regarding the permission for the entry of American soldiers from the north of Iraq, had already been the biggest break in the Turkish-American relationship in the last two decades. After this crisis, when we look at it in general terms, it was seen that the USA was in search of gradually shifting its strategic orientation from Turkey to other countries.
In this respect, the incident of July 15 caused a second break between the two countries. The subsequent S-400 and F-35, even the F-16 crises and the American sanctions within this framework should be seen as the reflections of these two major ruptures on the outside world.
At this point, it is understood that America has turned its strategic orientation towards our region to Greece. Thus;
1. Increasing strategic interest of the USA in favor of Greece in the region after September 2016,
2. Increase in Greek military expenditures and security-oriented activities,
3. Greece to become a 'military bases center' for the strategic, geopolitical and national interests of the USA.
The guiding influence of the US administration on Greece has been effective even during the left-wing government of Alexis Tsipras (2015-2019). Despite the traditional opposition stance of the Greek left in this period, the US-Greece joint defense cooperation agreement was extended.
In 2019, with the Government of Kyriakis Mitsotakis, the representative of the Centre-Right, coming to work, the American influence in the Greek government became visible enough to place the Greek citizen Panayotis Kontoleon, who was working at the Athens Embassy, ​​as the head of Greek Intelligence.
The quiet but methodical USA with activities; With the aircraft and vehicles to be deployed to the new bases it acquired in Greece, it had the opportunity to carry out its intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance activities in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea without interruption.
Let's go back to Alexandroupoli from here. The USA does not have the chance to keep enough naval ships in the Black Sea as per the provisions of the 1936 Montreux Convention. In this sense, the American comments on the "softening of the Montreux agreement", which came to Turkey's agenda, caused discomfort in the Turkish public. A more liberal Montreux interpretation in line with the expectations of the USA does not seem possible on the Turkish side. It is obvious that flexing the right of passage for American warships to the Black Sea through the straits will, first of all, harm the Turkish-Russian relationship. In addition, a situation will arise that contradicts Turkey's traditional straits policy, which will eventually make Montreux debatable.
Seeing that Montreux would not be possible, the USA, in parallel, made the Alexandroupoli port its home base and used this place as an exit point to Europe, to ensure its military presence and concentration in the Black Sea and Eastern Europe by land (including railway) transportation instead of the straits, and finally, an alternative parallel to the straits. We can consider that he wanted to create a route. Thus, without using the Straits, it will be possible for the USA to rapidly transfer or shift forces to Eastern European countries such as Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria when necessary. In this context, the power projection capability of the USA will be associated with the deployment of NATO military forces to Eastern European countries within the framework of the 2016 NATO Readiness Action Plan.
From the perspective of Turkey, American activities can be perceived, in a way, as the encirclement of Turkey rather than Russia. It can be argued that the policy of containing Turkey is about to be implemented by the USA, France and Greece. In order for this not to be understood as such, first of all, the Greek Government must stay away from provocative rhetoric and actions. The efforts of the Greek Government to marginalize Turkey with a policy of isolation and alienation instead of cooperation, in addition to the current armament policy, is not acceptable.
In addition, the USA, which has turned its strategic orientation to Greece rather than Turkey; It should not forget that it is an ally with Turkey, and in order to produce new alternatives that bypass the straits, it should not ignore Turkey's strategic importance and that it is a front-line country in the general perspective of NATO. The Turkish-American relationship, which has been continuing increasingly since 1947, has made Turkey, in a way, "meat and nails" with the USA and its allies. There are numerous historical reasons for this. Sacrificing this 75-year-old strategic partnership to periodic interests and shallow evaluations may result in Turkey's shifting its strategic orientation elsewhere in the long run. This situation may open the door to new strategic partnerships that will be against all parties, especially Greece, whose war drums sound.
First of all, it is a requirement of international diplomacy that the USA acts with the awareness of an ally country that stands at an equal distance to Turkish and Greek interests as well as its own interests. That is our expectation, of course.
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