What would happen in Kazakhstan now?

Defined as the "Shield of Eurasia" by Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski in his book The Great Chessboard, Kazakhstan welcomed the year 2022 in a very different way from the rest of the world.

The peaceful demonstrations started by the people protesting the hike in fuel prices turned into events that got out of hand after a point. President Tokayev, in his television speech after the events, preferred to describe the protesters as "bought provocateurs". On the same day, he declared a state of emergency in his country and ordered the Kazakh security forces to "shoot" the demonstrators in the street. As a result of the events that were claimed to have calmed down with the arrival of foreign powers, 164 people lost their lives.

Winner Tokayev: "One-Man" regime in Kazakhstan

During these events, despite the presence of a Kazakh army of 110,000 under his command, Tokayev; Presumably because he could not trust his own soldiers, he invited a symbolic peace force (a unit of 2,030 soldiers) made up of foreign soldiers to the territory of Kazakhstan in order to restore security and stability in the country. Thus, the events were taken under control by using “foreign power”.

Tokayev stood by his decision to invite foreign military forces to his country after the events calmed down: “We were about to lose control in Almaty when we took this decision. If we had lost control in Almaty, we would have lost control of the whole country!” He tried to explain the reason for his decision. After the protests, in which 164 people, including children, were killed and about 10 thousand injured, the country seems to be calm. In the meantime, it is reported that 12,000 people allegedly involved in the events are kept under surveillance.

The cost of preserving Tokayev's stability and power has been heavy on the country. On the other hand, contrary to what was feared, the Russians "decided to get out for the time being". Foreign soldiers started to leave Kazakhstan as of January 10. The withdrawal is expected to be completed by January 19.

Despite the peaceful demonstrators consisting of opposition and human rights activists, a segment that is thought to interfere with them and aims to create chaos has left the “Kazakh awakening” in the dark. "Provocateurs", who caused turmoil, set fire to state buildings and caused chaos, eventually gave Tokayev the opportunity to "slam his iron fist on the table" and prepared the streets and squares for the legitimacy of using force without aiming against the demonstrators. According to some, behind these provocateurs are the United States and especially the famous Soros, who supported the dissident Cossacks to make the “Orange Revolution”. According to some, Putin-backed Kazakh collaborators stepped in to ensure the establishment of Russian influence.

After all, no matter who is in the background, since Tokayev is the winner, there is a strong possibility that he and his supporters are indirect instigators of these events. Tokayev, who dismissed the Askar Mamin government appointed by Nazarbayev, using the events as an excuse, became "the head of everything" in Kazakhstan under the shadow of Russian weapons.

In our article on STRASAM on January 5, "Tokayev, who clearly does not want to be overshadowed by Nazarbayev, has had the opportunity to establish a 'one-man' administration in his country and to get rid of Nazarbayev with this crisis." we found out. Indeed, Tokayev became the only man in his country with the help of the Russians and got rid of Nazarbayev.

Who is Nazarbayev?

Nazarbayev, who has been the head of Kazakhstan for almost 40 years, has been a generally distant political leader in his relations with Turkey. Turgut Özal, who thinks that Turkey should extend to the common market with the Turkic republics that had just gained their independence from the Soviets in Turkestan in the early 1990s; At the first meeting of the heads of the Turkic states in Istanbul, he wanted to establish a cooperation mechanism between the new Turkic states and Turkey, based on the historical root unity of the Turks, the commonality of their language and culture, and the sameness of their traditions. However, Nazarbayev, the head of Kazakhstan, and Karimov, the President of Uzbekistan, did not agree to this, and indirectly stated that they did not want a second "brother" after the Russians.

Nazarbayev told Özal that he wanted a union between Turkey and Kazakhstan based only on economic, humanitarian and political relations. Nazarbayev, who never changed this point of view, kept a distance from the discourses of "Turkish Union" during his rule.

The events of 16-17 Jeltoksan (December) 1986 in Kazakhstan started as a student movement and then turned into a popular movement. On December 16, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) cracked. Along with other factors, thanks to the struggle for democracy initiated by Kazakh youth, the other 14 republics gained their independence from the Soviets over time. they have mentioned. The Kazakh people, who did not want to crush their honor even more, started to live in a partially independent country when Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been serving as the prime minister since March 22, 1984 under the head of state, Kolbin of Russian origin, became president on September 24, 1990. Finally, on December 16, 1991, under the leadership of Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan became a fully independent country.

Kazakhstan, which is defined as a country similar to Canada and Australia in the world with its rich natural resources, large lands and arable lands, lagged far behind these two countries in terms of industrialization, productivity and export during the 30-year Nazarbayev administration. Moreover, despite the establishment of an independent state, an administrative culture far from contemporary democracies was preserved in Kazakhstan and Nazarbayev's personal power was blessed. The unity and solidarity of the country and its future goals were equated with President Nazarbayev's staying in power. In Kazakhstan, whose "transitional period" never ended, a management approach that did not represent the changing social structure continued to exist.

Nazarbayev, who announced to his people that he would attach importance to three areas (development of social organizations, establishment of a decentralized administration approach and the transition to a stable political party system) since March 19, 2004, did not want to take a step beyond the establishment of a mechanism that would guarantee his own future. The oligarchic structure, which is fed with the blessings of power; With the "interest ring" they formed around the Nazarbayev government, they made it an economic policy to be stingy in reflecting the wealth of the country to the welfare of the people.

Based on this oligarchic structure, the experienced and charismatic Kazakh leader, who maintains his political and personal power, ruled his country as a single man until 2019. Nazarbayev in his book “At the Crossroads of the Centuries”; “… society is not static. Laws will also change with new developments. All kinds of decisions and practices of the state will be subject to criticism sooner or later… Social, economic and political developments must be together with and even ahead of the change in society.” made statements. Talking about the 2030 strategies for his country, he said, “… Societies consisting of a small rich group and poor communities can never develop.” he said. However, for the sake of the interests of this small wealthy group, Nazarbayev watched the Kazakh people remain poor. Throughout his administration, he was not disturbed by the existence of this unstable structure, which was the source of the January 3 demonstrations, for the sake of the continuation of his political power.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan under Nazarbayev; Especially since the beginning of the 2000s, it has faced three main geopolitical challenges. The first of these is Russia's desire to gain power again, to establish its influence over the Russian population predominantly in the north of Kazakhstan, and indirectly to have a say over Kazakh policies. The second is that the USA and its allies, which surrounded the heartland of Kazakhstan through Turkestan and especially Afghanistan, increased their presence in Central Asia. The third is that China, with its growing economic power, sees Kazakhstan as its gateway to the west, and for this reason, Kazakhstan strives to take it into its sphere of influence.

Nazarbayev, who acted with the desire to increase his economic and political relations with all three big countries, tried to follow a policy of balance between the great powers. Thus, in a multidimensional interaction, it aimed to establish security relations with Russia, active economic relations with China, and relations with the USA that did not cause any negative effects. However, relations with Russia and China, which are geographically close and enable Kazakhstan to maximize its interests in the economic sense, have always been kept ahead of relations with the USA and the European Union.

Nazarbayev, a former communist leader, could not break away from the Russians, despite his rhetoric that prioritized Kazakh culture and emphasized full independence. Maybe he didn't want to break up. Nazarbayev, who has always kept his distance from the Turkish world, prioritized getting closer with Russia and preserving this continuous integration with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which was established with the initiative of Russia. Presumably, he wanted to keep the CSTO close as an insurance as a guarantee for the oligarchic system he had built.

In the meantime, during the Nazarbayev period, it was desired to establish a geoeconomic relationship model with China, so that the Chinese economy was in a relationship to provide economic benefits to Kazakhstan, especially with the belt road. The Kazakh balance strategy, which was developed between the two powers with an understanding that gave more weight to Russia, kept a distance from American politics and policies of influence in Central Asia.

Realizing that his long years of power have come to an end, Nazarbayev said that the boredom that developed against him in the country and the "go old man" protest action. realized that it could cause Therefore, he left the Presidency in 2019, using his advanced age as an excuse. He left the administration to Tokayev, one of his close men, but he did not want to give up the powers of power. He continued to remain as the shadow president in the country's administration and to serve as the "Security Council President".

Conclusion

At this point, according to unofficial information, the assets of Nazarbayev and his prominent supporters were confiscated after the latest events. What is certain is that from now on, the Russian-backed Tokayev era began in Kazakhstan.

As a result of the protests that started on January 3, the demonstrators did not succeed. However, Tokayev, who turned these demonstrations into an opportunity, established his own authoritarian regime. In this environment, Kazakhstan's reconstruction, new economic policies, restructuring in many issues related to law and social life, bringing more democratic institutions to society, etc. Progress on these matters is unlikely in the near future.

It would not be wrong to evaluate that the tides in Ukraine will also be experienced in Kazakhstan from now on. If Tokayev is somehow overthrown and a pro-Western politician comes to the presidency, it is clear from today that Putin will try every possible way to seize Northern Kazakhstan.

According to Tokayev, political stability and tranquility have been achieved in Kazakhstan. An atmosphere of calm with 2,030 foreign soldiers has already made the legs of the new 68-year-old Tokayev's power "lack". No honorable people would like to accept a political figure who wants to rule their country under the shadow of a foreigner as a real leader. The end of Tokayev is near. Let's hope that one day real democracy will come to Kazakhstan instead of Russian boot, American imperialism, Chinese exploitation. Let the wealth and future of the country belong to the real Cossacks.

References

Marat E. ve Tutumlu A. (2021). “Kazakhstan’s Protests Aren’t a Color Revolution”, Foreign Policy, 11 Ocak, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/11/kazakhstans-protests-arent-a-color-revolution/

Budak F. (2016). Türk Dünyası Notları (1990-2010), İleri Yayınları, Birinci Baskı, İstanbul.

Hasan B. (2021). Kazakistan Örneğinde Avrasyacılığın Tarihi, (içinde Türkiye ve Türk Dünyası, Derleyen: Özdemir V.), Pankuş Yayınları, İstanbul.