Who Expects What from Xi's May 5-10 Visits to France, Serbia and Hungary?

Why Paris is Xi's First Stop in Europe?

China has been using Paris as a touchstone in its relations with the Western world. In May this year, from May 5 to 10, Xi is coming to Europe for an official visit that will take him to Paris and then to Belgrade and Budapest. Forty-nine years ago, in May 1975, Chinese Vice President Deng Xiaoping was also in Paris. Deng's visit, the first official visit of a Chinese Communist Party leader to a Western country, was considered as a breakthrough at the time. Deng, who later served as the President of China, drew a political profile that continued to open China to the world. Now, another Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, has taken the step to visit Paris, Belgrade and Budapest at a time when Beijing's relations with the West are beginning to suffer. It should be noted that Xi's May 5-10 trip comes a year after the European Union (EU) made a decision to limit China in its trade relations and even accused the Chinese of 'espionage'. 

French President Macron's visit to China in April last year marked a significant breakthrough in the search for strategic autonomy for Europe. Emmanuel Macron's remarks that Europe should reduce its dependence on the US and should not take sides in a conflict between China and the US over Taiwan after his state ceremonial visit to China naturally drew the reaction of Washington. Macron's statement was read as a sign that the Biden administration, which had barely managed to keep the transatlantic alliance together on Ukraine, would find it much more difficult to achieve the same unity during a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

It is no coincidence that France was the first stop for Xi, who is preparing to develop relations with the old continent in a new format. I consider it important that Macron invited the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen to the first day's talks. It seems that Paris avoids drawing a profile of acting 'alone' on behalf of Europe and considers it necessary for the EU to be represented at the table. On the other hand, just last week Macron warned that the European project could disintegrate if it fails to strengthen its political and defense dimensions. 

EU candidate Serbia and EU member Hungary's relations with Russia and China, and their rhetoric regarding these two countries, stand out as two countries that 'disrupt' European unity, and Xi's visit includes these two countries after France. The fact that these two countries are pursuing a special cooperation format with China that does not take the EU into account is probably bothering even Macron. So Macron must now be reluctant to allow a crack from Paris. While this format of presenting European unity vis-à-vis China may be seen as a conventional one for Macron, following his visit to Beijing with von der Leyen in April 2023 and his invitation to then German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker during Xi's visit to Paris in March 2019, Macron's stance is nonetheless seen as a valuable one in every respect, as he seems to feel the need to reinforce European unity.

Can the Problems between the EU and China be Shelved?

EU-China relations are actually going through a bad period. China is challenging the EU in two main areas: security and economy. Despite repeated attempts by European leaders, no real progress has been made between the two sides. Despite EU warnings, Beijing has not hesitated to double its support for Russia in Ukraine. Moreover, China's growing production capacity is looking for new markets and the threat of Chinese products flooding the European market continues to worry European countries.

My reading is that with China currently facing an economic downturn, something is expected to be done during this visit to address the problems in these sectors, especially in electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries, which are the defining framework for the China-EU relationship, creating competitive distortions for Europe and France. As Macron explained in an interview with the Economist magazine on April 29, he sees it as necessary to continue to partner with China on global issues and to act on a mission to ensure that China abides by international rules. Since 2019, France has expressed its disapproval of Chinese subsidies for electric vehicles across Europe. 

Xi's visit to Europe seems well-timed for China, which wants to influence the European elections in June with its 'soft power' and sees this as essential for its geopolitical calculations. In particular, Xi is expected to respond to European accusations that China is causing unfair competition in sectors ranging from electric vehicles to medical devices and solar panels. At the very least, the European backlash against Beijing's trade policy is seen as a case of the spear not fitting in the sack, and it is imperative for Xi to say something. 

Macron, who has always wanted to be proactive in determining the EU's defense and security policies, may show more political leadership for Ukraine and European security during this visit. However, in order to do so, Macron can be said to have demonstrated strong leadership for the Western world if he can actually say something to Xi and take a strong stance, similar to the way US Secretary of State Blinken expressed his discontent with China's support for Russia after his visit to Beijing. 

Moreover, as Russian President Vladimir Putin is due to visit China at the end of May, it would be a great success for Paris if Macron could 'persuade' the Chinese leader not to send arms to Russia. However, Macron, who tried this last year in Beijing, is well aware that no progress has been made since then. Indeed, over the last year, China's support for Russia has increased rather than decreased. Especially in the trade of dual-use goods, Moscow and Beijing have not hesitated to increase their cooperation. In this situation, would Xi listen to Macron in Paris? I don't think so. 

China's image is noisy in the cameras of Central and Eastern European countries

Part of Xi's itinerary is an effort to increase China's influence in Central and Eastern Europe. In the wake of Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine, this region has grown anxious and increasingly distanced from cooperation with Moscow. Moving away from Moscow means moving away from Beijing. During this visit, Xi is expected to send a strong message that Beijing is not Moscow, that it sees Europe differently, and that it will try to dispel doubts and concerns.

Xi's visit to Europe could provide a platform for the Chinese leadership to reverse Europe's hardening policy of distancing itself from China. In this region, Beijing has the opportunity to approach a number of countries that challenge the current geopolitical strategy of Washington and its close allies and seek closer ties with China and Russia. In this respect, Serbia and Hungary stand out as the two countries where Xi will land during his visit. 

Second Stop, Serbia 

In this context, a visit to Serbia could provide Xi with an important opening opportunity. Over the past fifteen years, Serbia has developed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China based on close economic and political relations. China ranks first in terms of direct investment in Serbia. Chinese entrepreneurs, who have managed to surpass German investments in this country, form the backbone of the Beijing-Belgrade bridge. China is performing remarkably well as Serbia's second largest trading partner after the EU. Xi's visit to Serbia on May 7-8 is expected to boost trade ties between the two sides.

However, the expectation that Xi, who will meet with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić during this visit, will refrain from raising the challenges arising from the increasing Chinese presence in this country, and that Vučić will not open these issues for discussion for now, is a political stance shared by both sides. Nevertheless, the negative impact of Chinese investments in Serbia on the environment, the lack of transparency in the negotiation of infrastructure projects, and the discomfort that China's growing influence in Serbia may cause to other members of the EU accession process are seen as prominent issues. I believe that Belgrade and Beijing will inevitably have to find a solution to these problems, if not today, then sooner rather than later.

Xi's visit is not only the second major visit in the last eight years, but also a visit of symbolic importance. It is known that the date of the visit, May 7-8, is a date that has symbolic meaning for both countries. During NATO's intervention in Serbia in Kosovo in 1999, a bomb 'hit' the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. Xi's visit comes a quarter of a century after the bombing. The bombing of the Chinese Embassy led the Chinese to subsequently adopt a policy of skepticism towards NATO and post-Cold War developments. Even today, the bombing continues to be the basis for Chinese politicians' rhetoric questioning and criticizing liberal democracies and their values. 

For Serbia, which is positioning itself as China's main partner in the Western Balkans, this visit is important. It is believed to offer an opportunity to strengthen its position. It is the highest-level visit to Serbia in recent years, and it is hoped that it will be a starting point for the realization of new joint projects that will facilitate the country's economic growth.

Third and Final Stop Hungary

During his visit, Xi will hold a one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who over the last decade has been moving Hungary's foreign policy closer and closer to China and Russia. Budapest joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2015 and has not shied away from acting as Beijing's mouthpiece within the European Union on China's human rights record and Taiwan.

Xi is expected to discuss some ongoing BRI infrastructure projects with Orban and the two countries are expected to sign a number of agreements on new projects. Xi is also likely to raise the issue of accelerating the Belgrade-Budapest high-speed rail project during his meetings in both Belgrade and Budapest. The project was launched in 2019, but construction on the Hungarian side had stalled until the Hungarian government decided to speed up work earlier this year. In February, Greece announced that it would join the project and extend it to Athens. Greece has thus strengthened China's geostrategic hand and opened up a new route for Chinese goods. China will now have an alternative route for its exports to reach the Mediterranean Sea and then south through Greece, across the Balkans and into the heart of Europe. Greece's opening opens up a new route as an alternative to Italian Prime Minister Meloni's recent withdrawal from the BRI, and will serve as a lever to compensate for the lack of the Italian route for the BRI.

Meanwhile, Xi and Orbán are expected to announce some new BRI projects during this meeting. To support Hungary's growing industrial production, China is expected to undertake the construction of a railway line connecting Liszt International Airport to Budapest, as well as the V0 railway ring, designed to help move international freight traffic out of the capital. In addition, as part of the visit program, the two leaders are confirmed to jointly visit the southern city of Pécs to announce a major investment by Chinese carmaker Great Wall Motor to build a new factory in Bicsérd to produce mid- and high-end cars for the European market.

Xi and Orbán are also expected to discuss articles detailing the implementation of the recently signed bilateral security cooperation agreement, which allows Chinese police officers to work in areas of Hungary with a high concentration of Chinese immigrants or Chinese tourists.

Budapest, which is pragmatic and value-neutral in economic relations and harshly critical of the EU, is a useful 'sore spot' for Beijing. Whatever one may say, Hungary has managed to attract ten billion euros worth of Chinese investment last year alone as a sign of the good relations it has built with Beijing. With this visit, I believe that the relationship between the two countries can be taken a step further, going beyond commercial investment to include infrastructure and security. Orbán calculates that this partnership with Beijing, which he is developing day by day, will put Hungary at the forefront of Europe, and that in the next few years his country will play a crucial role in becoming Europe's electric vehicle and electric vehicle battery production center. If it succeeds, the EU's criticism of China in this sector will be overcome through Hungary, while Beijing and Budapest will move forward arm in arm.

Conclusion

Xi's diplomatic trip to Europe should be read as an important chapter in China's strategic playbook. Xi's visit, which will take place from May 5 to 10, is expected to help China resolve some of its trade problems with Europe, maintain diplomatic ties with Europe through Paris, and possibly increase its influence in some parts of the continent. 

I see Xi's visit as having three main objectives: first, to repair China's relations with Europe, which have been damaged by China's alleged support for Russia in Ukraine; second, to prevent the EU from taking certain trade steps that would limit China; and finally, to continue building stronger ties with Beijing's traditional partners Serbia and Hungary.

During his time with Macron, I expect Xi to emphasize that his country's support for Putin's war machine should not be overstated, that China does not directly sell arms and ammunition to Russia in any way. He will also emphasize that France and other European countries should continue to benefit from economic ties with China, that it is important for Beijing and Brussels that this two-way street remains open, and that European capitals should follow an independent path rather than follow Washington's lead. I believe that such a message from Xi to Macron would be acceptable as it would be in line with the French leader's core principles, as he has never hidden his support for a more independent and principled EU on many issues. In a way, Macron is a leader who is happy to be the voice of those across Europe who are wary of standing too close to the US. 

On this visit, Xi will try to make more use of France's past reluctance to expand NATO's role in Asia. Macron has previously signaled that France cannot "blindly follow the US lead" on Taiwan and must "avoid being dragged into crises" that are not its own. Now, if Xi manages to keep Macron on this line during this visit, it will be seen as a win for Beijing. On the other hand, some experts believe that Macron is acting in solidarity with Washington's position on Taiwan. In my opinion, Paris will not do anything to 'upset' Xi during this visit.

Meanwhile, Xi's visit to Hungary will be hosted by Orban, who is currently more friendly towards China than Brussels. Through such bilateral contacts, Xi is looking for ways to disrupt Europe's unity and implement his unique "divide and rule" strategy. In this respect, Hungary and Serbia are seen as target countries for Beijing. Xi is expected to announce new BRI investments in Budapest and Belgrade, demonstrating China's continued importance as an economic partner. China recognizes Serbia's strategic importance in the Western Balkans and signed a free trade agreement with the country late last year. Xi will meet Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Belgrade on May 7, exactly 25 years after the 1999 NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade that killed three Chinese journalists, giving the visit a symbolic meaning. It is important to read Xi's messages in Hungary and Serbia carefully.

References

The Economist, "Emmanuel Macron on how to rescue Europe", May 2, 2024, https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/how-to-rescue-europe

The Atlantisist, "What to look for as Xi Jinping visits France, Serbia, and Hungary", May 2, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-to-look-for-as-xi-jinping-visits-france-serbia-and-hungary/