Why does the Vatican want Turkey to be a mediator between the parties?

Pope's Call for Ukraine to "Raise the White Flag"

The Vatican as it exists today was created in 1929 by an agreement signed by the then Pope with the Italian government. The reason for organising the Papacy as an independent state was to guarantee the political independence and neutrality of the Catholic Church. The real power of this micro-state derives from its position as the spiritual centre of the world's Catholics, who number more than 1 billion 200 million in total. 

I don't know if Putin says it, but Stalin was once quoted as saying, in order to belittle the Pope's influence on the international scene, "The Pope? How many battalions of soldiers does he have?" Indeed, the Vatican has neither its own army (apart from the Swiss guards in their colourful uniforms) nor the power to raise armies by edict, as in the Middle Ages. However, this does not mean that the papacy has no influence in world politics. 

Indeed, the Pope has become the flag-bearer of a discourse that favours the Kremlin, saying that Ukraine should 'raise the white flag' and end the war with Russia. In the Catholic world, the reactions of those who were uncomfortable with this statement of the Pope were observed from time to time. Some said that they found it "shameful" and "incomprehensible" that Francis did not condemn Moscow as an aggressor. Despite the criticism, the Pope continues to stand by his statement. He says Zelenkskiy should negotiate with Russia to end the war. 

Some politicians and commentators in Europe see Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory, which has killed tens of thousands of people, as an act of aggression. They resent the Pope's silence on the crimes committed by Putin's Russia. They argue that it is not right for the Pope to put the responsibility for peace-making on Ukraine, and they do not hide their anger at the Pope.

Social media is one of the places where this anger is expressed. For example, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs wrote on X: "My Sunday morning view: We must not surrender to evil, but fight it and defeat it, so that evil raises its white flag and surrenders."

Anton Gerashchenko, blogger and former adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry, wrote on X: "It seems strange that the Pope does not call for the defence of Ukraine, does not condemn Russia as an aggressor that has killed tens of thousands of people, does not call on Putin to stop, but instead calls on Ukraine to raise the white flag. Do all the Pope's Cardinals share his rhetoric?"

Matteo Bruni, the Vatican's director of communications, issued a statement seeking to clarify the Pope's remarks. Bruni said Francis used the term white flag "to denote a cessation of hostilities, a ceasefire reached with the courage to negotiate". He repeated his call for "steps to be taken for a diplomatic solution in the search for a just and lasting peace" in Ukraine.

On Saturday 9 March, in an interview broadcast by Swiss television, but which the Vatican said took place in February, the Pope urged the parties in the Ukrainian war to "have the courage to negotiate" and to do so "before things get worse". In other words, he invited not only Kiev but also Moscow to take steps for peace.

In his 10 March address, Pope Francis said that Ukrainians should not be afraid to negotiate a peace agreement before the situation worsens. "Today, for example, in the war in Ukraine, there are many people, countries, who want to act as mediators. Turkey for example. Do not be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse," he advised.

Has Turkey acted on the Pope's message?

The Pope's advice must have resonated with a message already conveyed in Kiev, as last Friday, 8 March, Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Istanbul and met with President Erdogan. "I am grateful to Turkey for its reliable support to Ukraine," Zelensky said, emphasising the unconditional security of navigation in the Black Sea for food security. I believe that increasing cooperation between the defence companies of the two countries and developing joint production opportunities were discussed during the visit. 

In the meantime, I believe that Zelenskiy may have invited President Erdoğan to engage in shuttle diplomacy on the Kiev-Moscow line in order to end this war, which has almost reached its climax, for peace terms acceptable to both sides. Even from the Vatican, an indirect message or suggestion to Turkey in this direction may have been conveyed through diplomatic channels. 

At the 2022 Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Ankara made an effort to force the parties to peace, and it is not difficult for Ankara to assume this role again. I foresee that Putin, who is expected to visit Turkey after 24 February 2022, when the war started, and who was last announced to visit Turkey on 12 February but later postponed his visit to a later date, will also welcome Turkey taking an active role in peace talks.

In the meantime, I believe that the Pope's discourse should not be read only in the context of Ukraine, because the Pope is talking about conflicts in general, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the context of Gaza. Francis said, "Negotiations are never a surrender. It is the courage not to drive a country to suicide", but despite this general statement, we do not need to be clairvoyant to realise that his main interlocutor is Zelensky and the driving force behind him, Washington.

Conclusion

The Vatican uses its diplomatic network to maintain ties with Catholics around the world and to keep in touch with the governments of countries where Catholics live. The Vatican maintains diplomatic relations with almost every country in the world and is a member or observer of dozens of international organisations, including the United Nations. As a result, it has as much say as any other state in the international conventions or decisions taken within the organisations of which it is a full member. Thus, the Pope, the head of the Vatican, is seen as perhaps the most influential person in the world, not only as a spiritual leader but also as a world leader. I consider Zelensky's visit to Turkey as a sign that Ankara thinks in a similar way to the Vatican and is ready for the Kiev-Moscow line to work through Ankara, even if it is not a 'white flag'.

I hope that this spring peace will come to the Ukrainian plains and flowers will bloom, Ukrainian children will return to their homes and be reunited with their fathers.

References

Kaan Bozdoğan, Muhammet Tarhan, “Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan, Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı Zelenskiy ile görüştü”, AA haber, 08 Mart 2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ukrayna-devlet-baskani-zelenskiy-ile-gorustu/3159450

Tolga Bilener, “Vatikan ve Diplomasi”, Dışardan, 28 Temmuz 2016, https://tolgabilener.com/2016/07/28/vatikan-ve-diplomasi/

Angelique Chrisafis, “Pope criticised for saying Ukraine should ‘raise white flag’ and end war with Russia”, Theguardian, 10 Mart 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/10/pope-francis-criticised-for-saying-ukraine-should-raise-white-flag-and-end-war-with-russia