Why is Iran's Needle Pointing to Russia?

Iran's Needle is Now Pointing Towards Russia 

The world is turning but at what cost, dear readers.  I think everyone is aware that we are at an extremely critical juncture. I am saying this not only for Turkey on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the Republic, but also for our entire globe. I think everyone can feel that we have accelerated a lot lately, that we are heading full speed ahead towards a downward spiral. But above all, we have seen and experienced how much confrontational energy the Black Sea basin harbors, like the energy released in an earthquake. The systemic structure of the Black Sea Basin, which is power and interest-oriented and affects the entire system, is fueling conflict. Not a day goes by that it does not produce something negative.  It is a geographical area where polarization based on interest differentiation and competition is at its peak on the axis of actors in the basin on one side and global and regional actors related to the basin on the other. 

For some reason, the fate of this geography is a dilemma, a duality. It has always been dominant in this geography. With the evolution of Russia from a Moscow knighthood to a state, Turkey has always taken part in this duality against Russia, first alone and then with allies. This duality is such that, like fault lines moving in two different directions during an earthquake, they rub against each other as they move. Recall the formation of an earthquake. The plates of these fault lines are so large that not only does this friction as they move generate enormous energies, but also heat energy, just like in a war...

The sides are becoming clearer as the ranks are tightening. If you want signs, here are the signs. The first of these is that Iran is on the RF side, although it has not openly declared it, the second is that the RF has suspended its participation in the grain corridor agreement, and the third is the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz to Turkey after a 10-year hiatus. Let us examine these developments together. 

Iran has become a nuclear 'threshold state' as a result of its activities since 1975. What does 'nuclear threshold state' mean? It is when a country has the technology to rapidly build nuclear weapons, but has not yet done so. Israel is the country that follows this situation the best. It is the eyes and ears of the United States in the Middle East.  Exactly one year ago, on November 9, 2021, Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi made a statement in front of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee of the Israeli parliament: "The army is increasing its preparations for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The Israeli army must accelerate its operational planning and preparations to deal with the Iranian and military nuclear threat." (1) 

Binyamin "Benny" Gantz, Israel's former Chief of Staff, since his appointment as Israel's Defense Minister, has stressed that Israel is not opposed to a new nuclear deal between the major powers and Iran, but he has expressed on almost every occasion his concerns, worries and fears that Iran is building or is very close to building nuclear weapons. He has said that if there is to be a deal with Iran, it should be a better deal than the previous one, and it should include limiting the development of ballistic missiles, halting the regional sovereignty project, and putting an end to the deployment of armed militias in the countries of the region, equipping them with advanced weapons such as suicide drones (Kamikaze Drones), and putting an end to terrorist activities in the countries of the region and the world. On the other hand, Iran, which has taken a hard-line stance that has not helped to move towards a new agreement, has made its long-standing pivot to the RF permanent and made its side clear. A year ago, when it was expected that suicide drones would be used against Iran in line with Gantz's proposal, Iran stepped in on Russia's behalf, not only providing suicide drones, but also using them on the Ukrainian battlefield in favor of the RF, and sending its Revolutionary Guards to Kherson and Crimea for training support according to Kiev. (2) 

Look at where the world has evolved. The meaning of this is clear.  By supplying UCAVs to Russia, Iran is trying to extend its military power beyond the Middle East. According to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, "Russia's increased use of Iranian-made UCAVs in Ukraine poses a growing threat to the United States and its European allies as Tehran seeks to extend its military power beyond the Middle East." (3) 

Ukrainian officials have reported that in recent weeks Russia has launched more than 300 Iranian-made Shahed-136 UCAVs targeting military units, power plants and civilian buildings in the capital Kiev, while the Ukrainian military has shot down more than 70 percent of them. However, neither Iran nor Russia have denied the exchange of UCAVs, despite the fact that photographs of very interesting Iranian UCAVs have appeared in the media. On almost every occasion, the Iranian Foreign Minister blatantly denies what is obvious to everyone. According to the official Iranian media, in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dimitro Kuleba, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan completely denied that not only suicide UCAVs but also other Iranian weapons were used in the war in Ukraine. Since sanctions are at stake, the Iranian Foreign Ministry denies the sale in its entirety. However, the issue is clear. The Kayhan newspaper, whose editor-in-chief is directly appointed by Supreme Leader Khamenei, wrote openly in its September 24 issue about its pride in exporting hundreds of drones to Russia. (2) 

The second important issue in the tightening of ranks is the indefinite suspension of Russia's participation in the grain corridor agreement. In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin harshly criticized the agreement, arguing that poor countries were not benefiting from the grain shipped rather than the corridor's dysfunction. Undoubtedly, the West, which has imposed sanctions on Russia, has been at the center of the criticism. Putin has said that most of the shipments go to Europe and therefore low-income countries do not benefit from the agreement. So much so that, in his speech at the Vladivostok Economic Forum, Putin stated that only two of the 80 ships went to low-income countries and therefore the deal was a "scam" for developing countries. (4) 

In fact, this corridor functioned more as an agricultural corridor than a grain corridor.  Between August 1 and October 18, 2022, a total of 354 ships transported barley, wheat, soybean, sunflower meal, wheat bran, peas, sunflower seeds, processed mixed food, sugar beets, sunflower oil, canola seeds, corn and soybean oil, as well as 13 different products and fertilizers from the Ukrainian cities of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhne. Demand was so high that at one point the Bosphorus turned into a parking lot for freighters carrying grain across the Marmara Sea. Yenikapı, Bakırköy and Zeytinburnu were filled with freighters and cargo ships, anchored at the entrance to the Bosphorus, thus proving the importance of Canal Istanbul once again. As President Erdoğan clearly stated in his speech at the Canal Istanbul Sazlıdere Bridge Groundbreaking Ceremony on June 26, 2021, while an average of 3,000 ships passed through the Bosphorus in the 1930s, this figure has reached 45,000 today. 

Projections show that the number of ships that will pass through the Bosphorus in 2050 will reach 78 thousand. However, according to calculations, the safe passage capacity of the Bosphorus is limited to 25 thousand. In addition, 54 piers on both sides of the Bosphorus have a daily traffic of 500 thousand people for urban travel. At the same time, the passage of new generation ships, which are being built in a manner unforeseen by the Montreux Treaty on the Turkish Straits, has always been and remains risky due to their large tonnage and width. To give an example, the lengths of ships passing through the Bosphorus have increased from 50 meters to 350 meters. Canal Istanbul is also the "Project to Save Istanbul's Future". On November 15, 1979, the Romanian-flagged tanker "İndependenta", which was carrying 95,530 tons of crude oil loaded from Libya to Constanta, collided with a Greek-flagged coaster at around 05.20 hours and burned in front of Haydarpaşa for a month, has become another name for disaster in the memory of Istanbulites. 51 crew members also lost their lives in the accident. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that they have indefinitely suspended the agreement on the outflow of grain products from Ukraine and that the Russian side will no longer be able to guarantee the safety of civilian vessels passing through the corridor. The agreement was due to expire on November 1, 2022, as it was already a temporary agreement. The reason for Russia's indefinite suspension of the agreement is again due to the effectiveness of UCAVs, this time used against the RF.  The Russian Foreign Ministry said in a written statement that the Ukrainian armed forces, using the humanitarian corridor created as part of the implementation of the "Black Sea Initiative" for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products as a cover, carried out massive air and naval strikes with drones against ships and infrastructure of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the naval base in Sevastopol. "The Russian side is unable to guarantee the safety of civilian dry cargo ships participating in the Black Sea Initiative and suspends the implementation of the agreement indefinitely as of today," the statement said, adding that Russia took the decision in connection with the "terrorist acts" of the Ukrainian armed forces, led by British experts, against Russian ships ensuring the functioning of the humanitarian corridor. The backbone of Russia's public relations efforts is that all four sabotage attacks that disrupted the Nord Stream Project were the work of the British SEAL-UDT.  

The third issue is the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Gantz to Turkey after a ten-year hiatus. The fact that Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who is a reasonable and moderate personality, was the first Israeli President to visit Turkey after many years on a plane loaded with meaning in terms of Turkish-Israeli relations, via the TRNC, gave positive signals of the restoration of relations to their former level. Moreover, this rapprochement has become even more visible with the coming to power of a new government in Israel that is mindful of balances. Prime Minister Yair Lapid's recent warm and cordial meeting with President Erdoğan at the Turkevi in New York reflects the positive atmosphere between the two countries. President Erdoğan has also been holding regular meetings with representatives of the Jewish community in the US for quite some time. In this context, Turkish Jewish Community Co-Chairs İshak İbrahimzadeh and Erol Kohen attended the last meeting in the US. 

One of the two risks to normalization with Israel, which is going to elections for the fifth time in the last four years, is the ties of Benjamin Netanyahu, the architect of the polarization in Israel and its longest-serving leader, and Hamas to Turkey. (5) 

During the meeting, which was also attended by Hulusi Akar, the Minister of National Defense, Gantz asked Erdogan to ban HAMAS leadership on Turkish soil. The third issue is related to Iran's current stance. Gantz's visit was extremely important in this respect. Israel's foremost demand is not to send weapons to Iran's supporters in the region, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, through Syria, which is in line with Turkey's demands.  It is also considered that Turkey, which is in the midst of a major breakthrough in the defense industry, wants to restart the purchase of Israeli-made weapon systems and technology from the Israeli defense sector, and may have made a request to integrate Israel's Iron Dome and Beam Dome systems into its own systems in order to strengthen its air defense vulnerability. 

Russia's deliberate increase in the use of Iranian-made UCAVs in Ukraine and Tehran's efforts to extend its military power beyond the Middle East are signs that the parties are moving towards an alliance. In today's environment where the ranks are being tightened, the 250-300 thousand soldiers that Putin, who has taken over the command system of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine as the commander-in-chief, is preparing to deploy to the front, the changes he has made in the command system, the increase in the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons and the show of force with intercontinental ballistic missiles are directly related to the reshuffling of the game. The EU(D) and the UK's preparation to fortify Ukraine with NASAMS air defense systems, HIMARS rocket systems, 105 and 155 howitzers, air-to-air IRIS-T missiles and tanks inevitably globalizes the war. The situation in Turkey, which is in the midst of elections, dictates a truly precarious situation. In this conjuncture and on this long road, Turkey can move forward with a wise stance, dear readers. 

Footnotes:

(1) Nazir Mecelli “İsrail Savunma Bakanı Gantz, ABD’de İran'a yönelik ortak askeri operasyonları görüşüyor”, Şarkul Avsat, 10 Aralık, 2021;  https://turkish.aawsat.com/home/article/3351586/i%CC%87srail-savunma-bakan%C4%B1-gantz-abd%E2%80%99de-i%CC%87rana-y%C3%B6nelik-ortak-askeri-operasyonlar%C4%B1/ Erişim Tarihi 30.10.2022/

(2) Fehim Taştekin, “İran’ın Kamikaze İha’ları ve Dünya Düzeninde Serbest Düşüş Senaryoları”, Gazete Duvar, 24 Ekim 2022; Https://Www.Gazeteduvar.Com.Tr/İranin-Kamikaze-İhalari-Ve-Dunya-Duzeninde-Serbest-Dusus-Senaryolari-Makale-1586127/Erişim Tarihi 30.10.2022/

(3) Ellie Yusuf, “İran Rusya’ya SİHA tedarik ederek, askeri gücünü Ortadoğu’nun ötesine taşımaya çalışıyor”, Şarkul Avsat 30 Ekim, 2022; https://turkish.aawsat.com/home/article/3959661/i%CC%87ran-rusya%E2%80%99ya-si%CC%87ha-tedarik-ederek-askeri-g%C3%BCc%C3%BCn%C3%BC-ortado%C4%9Fu%E2%80%99nun-%C3%B6tesine-ta%C5%9F%C4%B1maya/ Erişim Tarihi 30.10.2022/

(4) https://www.bloomberght.com/putin-den-tahil-koridoru-elestirisi-2314185/ Erişim Tarihi 30.10.2022/

(5) Hakan Çelik, “İsrail ile Normalleşme Önünde İki Risk Var”, Posta Gazetesi, 25 Ekim 2022; https://www.posta.com.tr/yazarlar/hakan-celik/israil-ile-normallesme-onunde-iki-risk-var-2570816/Erişim Tarihi 25 Ekim 2022/