Will Europe, Leaderless after Merkel, Give Up to Putin?

As the Russian army loses ground in Ukraine, especially in the north-west of Kherson, where fierce fighting continues, Putin, who secured the Ukrainian territories he occupied at the end of September, is not giving up hope in the global dynamics that will lead him to victory. He is probably so convinced that the rich and weak-willed inhabitants of the old continent of Europe in particular will do nothing to stop him that he believes "the ongoing collapse of Western hegemony is irreversible". He is not afraid to say so in front of the media.

In the minds of Putin and those around him, the pampered peoples of the West cannot bear the hardships of the energy crisis that has emerged as a result of the gas shortage. One day they will have to submit to Russia, which holds the gas valve. So we will see European states gradually withdrawing their support for Ukraine. And eventually they will knock on the Kremlin's door to reach an agreement with Russia. These days are approaching. Thus, the emerging 'multipolar' world order will shift to a structure that suits the Kremlin's wishes. The whole world will see that the isolationist policy to which the American leadership has subjected Russia will be short-lived.

It is not only the people of Europe, but also the "lackluster" stance of the prominent political leaders of European countries that has pushed Putin to these thoughts and expectations. As I recently read in a twitter post, "Scholz has once again been exposed as a pathetic, impersonal and spineless green pawn, Macron as a kind of insect that goes by the smell, and the southern countries as vassals with no influence on EU politics." This is probably how Putin sees European leaders. Perhaps, unlike these "passive" leaders, Melon, who won the elections in Italy on September 25th and declared that "we are the children of our history", could become the new "Merkel" for Europe. Some time will have to pass to see this.

Nevertheless, there are signs that Europeans are showing remarkable unity in the face of this enormous challenge. Even if Europe's resistance is still 'leaderless' and disorganized, it is important. How else would the EU be able to make decisions on natural gas use? Isn't the decision to cut gas use by 15% (60 billion m3) indicative of such resilience?

On the other hand, it seems that there is no evidence of a common policy among European capitals on how to end the war or what kind of relationship with Russia could be established in the future. Nor do we know whether Europe will press for regime change in Moscow. There is no EU resolution announcing a consensus on these issues. But Europe is preparing to shed its inertia. There is no "Europeans do the defense of Europe!" but at least there is a search for it, that is known. Who knows, it may be too late for the Russian President when he realizes that he has helped create a formidable opponent, just as the United States expected.

Across the European Union, the sanctions, despite the occasional demonstrations, have a great deal of popular support. The public recognizes their necessity. While most governments see sanctions as necessary and sustainable, a few want to go further. Meanwhile, while some media outlets continue to debate whether the US-led Western sanctions against Moscow are working or not, European public opinion supports them.

The 'realist' arguments put forward by some American academics, such as John Mearsheimer, one of the pioneers of neorealism, that the West's policy of expanding NATO has led to the crisis are not gaining traction among European thinkers, including those who acknowledge that the West has made mistakes.

Even countries like Germany and Italy, once considered friends of Russia, see sanctions as necessary. Even in the event of a temporary ceasefire, the EU is likely to keep the sanctions in place until there is a definitive peace. The only dissenting voice across Europe on sanctions comes from Hungary. But while the authorities in Budapest have taken a principled stance against the sanctions, they are not satisfied with being the only dissenters in the EU. This has even helped to preserve the already strong relationship between Hungary and Poland, which has been an ardent supporter of sanctions and has been rapidly arming itself since the beginning of the war.

It is also true that there is no trace of Merkel-era Germany. Germany played an important role in shaping Europe's response to Russia in the crises of the last decade, especially in 2014 and beyond. Now, no country can bring others together to forge a consensus in the EU. It cannot show this leadership. Macron, who used to act together with Merkel, is now not seen as sufficient to show this leadership. However, EU experts do not see this as a sign of a split. In a sense, European countries are divided between East and West against Russia. The popular idea of an EU divided between hawks and doves does not fully reflect the views of policymakers, who point to a broad consensus on the direction of the EU. This 'split' over the response to Russia is seen as a technicality. All EU countries are focused on finding solutions for themselves individually and then for the EU as a whole.

There is currently no agreed theory of victory in Europe. Most European capitals continue to predict a protracted war. The terms of any settlement therefore remain unclear. Leading European policy circles are hesitant to define victory. Rather, they seem to leave it to the Ukrainian leadership, Zelensky and his team. However, some governments believe that Ukraine should be given back all the territory it has lost. They are quite adamant about this. Others say that new peace initiatives can begin after Russia withdraws to the lines it had before February 24, 2022. There is not much talk about what to do for regime change in Russia. This issue seems to have been left to the US.

Europe is finally learning that it is moving towards a world in which its role of relative supremacy is diminishing. Putin, who attempted to invade Ukraine, is actually going down in history as the leader who accelerated this process. The West is indeed losing its status as a normative hegemon, as Putin predicted. But with the inevitable collapse of the West, a more united and united Europe is emerging, self-sufficient and capable of taking a united stand against Russia without relying on the US. Europeans are closer than ever to the ideal of an EU army. When Vladimir Putin sees the collapse of the West replaced by a tough and united Europe, there may well be a new leader sitting in the Kremlin, longing for the glory days of pre-war superiority over Europe.