Will Zelenski's Formula Bring Peace in 2023?

Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky participated in the 17th G-20 Summit, which was held on November 15-16 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, via video conference. With this participation, Zelenski had the opportunity to address the G-20 leaders, to complain about Russia in a sense, and to receive a promise of support from them.

Why did Ukraine attend the summit but Russia did not?

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, some countries called for the expulsion of Russian President Vladimir Putin from the G-20. The US supported this approach. However, China rejected this approach, saying in a statement that no member has the right to expel another country from membership. Indonesian President Joko Widodo invited Zelenski and Putin to the conference. Both leaders responded positively. 

However, the Indonesian government initially tried to keep Russia's invasion of Ukraine off the agenda. It tried to keep the summit focused on the pandemic and the economy. But when the US and Canada declared to Indonesia that they would not attend any G-20 session involving Russia, the situation spiraled out of Bali's control. European countries, on the other hand, said they would not be bothered by Putin's participation. Australia's new post-election prime minister also supported such a shift. Nevertheless, Putin decided not to attend the meeting even via teleconference and was replaced by Foreign Minister Lavrov. Zelenkski, on the other hand, preferred the teleconference connection.

At the G-20 meeting, which Russia did not attend, Zelensky delivered a speech that was supported by applause. He surprised the meeting by presenting "Ukraine's peace formula". The Peace Formula, which Zelenski expressed for the first time at this meeting, consisted of 10 articles. 

Zelenski's Peace Formula

The war, which started on February 24, 2022 with Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine, had actually heated up in the days of the 'cold war' with the tensions between the Western Bloc and the Russian Federation since mid-2021. The war, in which the US and the UK actively supported the Ukrainian Army with arms aid, continues unabated, despite countless humanitarian dramas and the displacement of millions of people from their homes. 

In order to end this war, in which both sides have suffered heavy losses, many states have undertaken mediation, imposed heavy sanctions against Russia and organized summits, but no (desired) result has been reached. 

At the G-20 summit, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia can end this war and that it must prove its willingness to do so by its actions. Zelensky argued that this war must end as quickly and justly as possible. At the same time, he emphasized that Ukraine should not be expected to make any concessions on independence, territory and sovereignty. He stated that everyone knows that Russia cannot be trusted with peace. 

The Ukrainian Peace Formula included a total of 10 points. The Ukrainian leader's roadmap included the following items respectively:

1. Nuclear security

Focus on restoring security in and around Zaporizhia, Europe's largest nuclear power plant and currently under Russian occupation.

2. Food security

Protecting and securing Ukraine's grain exports to the world's poorest countries.

3. Energy security

Focus on price restrictions on Russian energy supplies, as well as assistance to Ukraine to repair its energy infrastructure, half of which has been damaged by Russian aggression.

4. Release of prisoners and exiles 

Release all detainees and deportees, including prisoners of war and Ukrainian children deported to Russia.

5. Territorial integrity

The restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia's reaffirmation of it under the UN Charter, which Zelenski has already said is "not negotiable".

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops 

Withdrawal of Russian troops, cessation of hostilities, restoration of Ukraine's state borders with Russia.

7. Justice restoration 

Justice, including the establishment of a special court to try Russian war criminals.

8. Environmental protection

Environmental protection with a focus on ecocide (ecological destruction), demining and restoration of water purification facilities.

9. Preventing conflict escalation

Creation of a security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic area, including guarantees for Ukraine.

10. Confirmation of the end of the war

A (binding) document signed by the parties involved as confirmation of the end of the war.

At the G-20 summit, Zelenski stated that all these articles are based on the United Nations Charter and international law. He emphasized that this formula would save many lives, restore international security and peace, prove the rule of international law and stabilize the international system. 

During the meeting, Zelenski referred to the G-20 Summit as G-19, implying that Russia should be excluded from the summit. 

Russia, on the other hand, rejected Zelensky's peace proposal and said it would not give up any of its territories, which make up about one-fifth of Ukraine. At the same time, Russia considers these regions as liberated territories/territories annexed to Russia by referendum, more precisely as Russian territory. In this sense, the Russian side says it does not intend to make any changes. 

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that this Peace Formula is "unrealistic". In response, British Prime Minister Sunak said that Russia cannot have a legitimate place at the table until the illegal war in Ukraine ends. 

Zelensky continues to argue that by refusing to implement their proposed Peace Formula, Russia is clearly demonstrating its willingness to continue the war.

Conclusion

To summarize briefly, the Peace Formula presented by Ukrainian President Zelenski at the G20 Summit was an important initiative to end the long-standing Russian occupation. Zelensky invited the states present at the summit to make the right choice in line with conscience and international law. On December 22nd, during Zelensky's visit to Washington, Biden did not hesitate to publicly state that he shared Zelensky's vision for peace and that the United States was committed to supporting Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Likewise, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Italy, Canada and France have also declared that they will support Ukraine in any situation where the war continues. 

Although Zelensky's proposal was supported by many Western countries, especially the United Kingdom and the United States, there was no softening on the Russian side. However, given Putin's statements from time to time that he is open to a peace treaty, I believe that Zelensky's peace formula will sooner or later be discussed at the negotiating table.