Would Bosniaks' Love for NATO Cause War with Serbs?

Russia Will Take Over the Balkans:

The Russian occupation of Ukraine has raised concerns that the country will use its proxies in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnian Serbs) to open a second front against the West in the Western Balkans.

Michal Baranowski, director of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund, noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin "said from the beginning that it was not just about Ukraine". In fact, the current conflict has resulted from Putin's larger geopolitical designs to counter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) influence in Eastern Europe.

High Representative of the European Union for Foreign and Security Policy Josep Borrell wanted to talk about an effect that could spread to the Balkans with the prophecy of “Russia will not stop in Ukraine” and deemed it necessary to warn the European society. Reiterating the predictions of many Western officials, Borrell expressed his concerns for "Bosnia, which may face destabilization in particular," as well as Western Balkan countries such as Russia's neighboring countries Moldova and Georgia.

Let's Remember What Happened in the Past:

During and before the Russia-Ukraine War, the instability and the search for more security, seen in many Eastern European countries that are not members of NATO or the EU, have continued to be experienced in Bosnia-Herzegovina for years. Recently, a number of specific political and social factors have emerged that put Bosnia at particular risk of Russian interference and aggression.

Undoubtedly, it is impossible to forget the atrocities and genocide experienced by Bosnians in the Bosnian War between 1992-1995, in the heart of Europe. These dark days that darkened the memories of all Bosnians are gone today. However, the Dayton Peace Agreement, signed at the end of the war; He re-established the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its territory and administrative structure are almost divided into three. However, this agreement was not enough to completely dissolve the fragmented political and institutional landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Decision of the Assembly of the Bosnian Republika Srpska:

Milorad Dodik, Serbian member of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, declared that Bosnian Serbs would withdraw their support for the development projects of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in case of a sanction decision from the European Union.

Meanwhile, the Assembly of the Bosnian Serb Republic took a separatist step and put the draft law on the establishment of its own judicial system on its agenda. Bosnian Serbs brought the proposal to establish a special Council of Judges and Prosecutors to the Serbian Parliament. With the proposed law, it is aimed to transfer the powers in the judicial field from the central government to the Bosnian Serbs. Indeed, the Serbian Assembly; decided on 10 December 2022 to transfer many powers from the central government to Bosnian Serb authorities in the fields of judiciary, security, defense and taxation.

Decision of the European Parliament:

Bosniak member of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sefik Dzaferovic, supported the call for the European Union to impose sanctions on Serbian leader Milorald Dodik and his partners. Dzaferovic noted that Dodik refused institutional dialogue to resolve disagreements and tried to overthrow the constitutional order established by the Dayton Peace Agreement with unilateral moves.

The European Parliament called on the European Council to impose sanctions on Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential Council, and his partners, for their "separatist policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina".

After the December 10 decision, the European Commission called on the authorities of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina to avoid unilateral steps that would violate the constitution.

Croatian National Parliament:

Croats, one of the three founding peoples in Bosnia and Herzegovina, stated before the elections scheduled for October this year that they could initiate a political process to create their own regions if there is no change in the electoral law in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

majority of Bosnian Croat political parties; They stated that they would act with the idea that "election conditions have not been met and elections cannot be held" if the necessary changes are not made in the election law.

Call of the US Embassy in Sarajevo:

In the statement made by the US Embassy in Sarajevo, it was stated that the threat of withdrawal from state institutions and the creation of their own institutions endanger the stability and development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It called for the rejection of such regulations targeting the constitutional order and paving the way for corruption.

The US administration put Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the Presidential Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, on the sanction list for corruption and threatening the stability and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Visit of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic to Turkey:

During the visit held on January 18, 2022, the President of Serbia answered the questions of the press. Aleksandar Vucic, who is of the same opinion, used the phrase, "I told President Erdogan that we are extremely respectful of the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina." Meanwhile, 4 new agreements were signed between Turkey and Serbia. Vucic said that the interests of the Bosnian Serb Republic are also important and that this is an issue included in the Dayton Agreement, "Only this way we can maintain security." he said.

Is the Dayton Peace Enough?

The fragile nature of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been overshadowed by the European sanctions against the Russians. In this Balkan Republic, where Croat, Bosniak and Serbian ethnic groups use their sovereign rights defined within the framework of Dayton, the Croatian community has established a strong relationship with the European Union through Croatia. Republika Srpska in this country has preserved its organic bond with Serbia and the Russian Federation due to its common historical past. Orthodox Bosnian Serbs have cultural, historical and ideological affinities with Russia. In this respect, Bosnia and Herzegovina gives Moscow the appearance of an island in the European sea that can be intervened and destabilized.

Effect of Cultural Codes:

Nowadays, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been defined by Putin as a geography where the so-called "clash of civilizations" envisioned between Russia and the West is expected to take place. Serbs living within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina have a strict understanding of Orthodox Christianity. The majority of Croats belong to the Catholic Church. Bosnians, on the other hand, are prominent in their Muslim identities in Europe.

Putin's Russia; Taking Serbia and Croatia with him, he sought to cooperate with Bosnian Serbs and Croats, especially on the amendment of Bosnian electoral law. As a result, Bosnian Croat leader Dragan Covic developed a pro-Russian stance, publicly complaining that "There is not enough Russian influence in Bosnia". Croatian President Zoran Milanovic has surprisingly opposed Ukraine's NATO membership, which he also describes as "one of the world's most corrupt countries". Russian diplomats stood by the Bosnian Croat leader Covic's proposals for a new election law in Bosnia and responded to the expectations of the nationalist Croats.

Backed by the Russians, the Bosnian Croats also gained the support of the European Union to a certain extent. Croatia's NATO and EU memberships serve as an important anchor for Bosnian Croats. EU; In the elections for key positions in the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, unlike Dayton, it has developed a stance in favor of a greater weight of the votes of the Croats in the regions governed by the country's nationalist Croatian Democratic Union.

Putin Plays With Ideological Breaks:

Such ideological ruptures between the three ethnic groups that have shattered the peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the conflict between the forces associated with it, correspond to Putin's hostile worldview. It invites clashes between civilizations.

The geography of Bosnia and Herzegovina is about to present the opportunity it has been waiting for, for Putin, who is trying to break the international isolation of Russia and sees every possible way to camouflage its growing failure in Ukraine. The meddling of the Western Balkans, and even the outbreak of a new conflict in this region, could suddenly turn Europe's attention to the Balkans and put Moscow at ease.

The already unstable political conditions may push the Bosnian Serbs back into adventure. Bosnia and Herzegovina is about to transition to a very favorable partly cloudy climate for the Serbs, who are openly supported by Putin. A symbolic victory over the Bosniaks over the Serbs could strengthen Putin's hand for "slavic integrity" and have negative implications for the Ukrainian resistance led by Zelensky.

The Relationship of Russian-Bosnian Serbs under Dodik Administration:

The Serbian side, which makes up the majority of the country, is a country led by Milorad Dodik, who is known as a Serbian nationalist with high loyalty to Putin. Dodik has repeatedly expressed his intention to break up the Bosnian state by force if necessary. In order to realize his irredentist ambitions, Dodik has endeavored to develop the security and military capacity of Republika Srpska during the majority of his 16-year de facto rule, at the expense of the Bosnian constitution. In this process, the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin has been one of his biggest supporters.

Dodik put aside the fact that the army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a force that includes all three ethnic groups; Republika Srpska police and security forces procured enough weapons and equipment to form a distinctly separate army and began to receive military training with them. This restructuring carried out by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republika Srpska was carried up to the holding of official parades in the country and became publicly implemented. By the way, the Russians have shown their willingness to lead a new war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially by providing hybrid warfare training to these groups.

Known as the “Night Wolves” among Bosnian Serbs, the group draws attention as the most notable pro-Russian organization in the region. The leader of this pro-Russian group, which has been on the agenda for almost 10 years, is a Bosnian Serb, known by the nickname "Surgeon" and known for his role in the annexation of Crimea, and he has good contacts with Serbia.

Russian Influence On Bosnian Media:

Russia has also managed to have a significant influence in the Bosnian media. As a matter of fact, the Bosnian press hosted many articles that justified the Russian occupation of Ukraine. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, which has become a country open to disinformation, the number of publications has increased to see "the USA and NATO as the devil" and the theme that "the EU is a weak and divided organization" has been discussed. Meanwhile, Russian military power has been advertised and The Russians were presented as 'saviors' against the Westerners.

These narratives serve as a connective tissue between Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the Kremlin's plans for the Western Balkans. Putin's war in Ukraine is tried to be reflected in Balkan societies as his war against Western hegemony. Faced with the current international order in the broad sense, the Kremlin was eager to make a political investment that increased its supporters in the Balkans through the Bosnian Serbs. The fragile Dayton structure of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina offers Putin a convenient playing field for his divisive geopolitical goals towards Europe.

Bosnia and Herzegovina Continues to Become a NATO Member:

Here, a question may come to mind for the future: If Bosnia and Herzegovina continues its attempt to join NATO, as it aims, in the near future, if it does not give up on this desire, could Bosnia also be subjected to the same aggression (through Serbs) as Ukraine? Could the Russians, unlike the Ukraine, start a proxy war against the Bosnian Muslims, similar to the situation in 1992? This question seems likely. As a matter of fact, even already Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats, who have the potential to act with them, are trying to destabilize Bosnia together. Bosnia is vulnerable to such internal attacks due to the fragility of its state structure.

Can EUFOR ALTHEA Stop a Potential Conflict?

The EU's presence in this region with EUFOR ALTHEA may not be enough to stop a possible war. It is seen that the deterrent capacity of EUFOR, which currently has 1,100 soldiers, will not be enough to suppress a possible internal turmoil. The EU leadership is far from taking a strong stance against the Serbs, and there is no will to put forward a capacity that can even increase the number of soldiers in EUFOR. As can be seen, Bosnians are struggling to survive in the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in a very risky and risky position to be left alone with their own fate.

Are Election Laws So Important?

Instability and insecurity-based problems do not attract the attention of Western society. As it turns out, the EU and the USA; they consider it necessary to ignore the possibility of a possible conflict erupting and to focus on changing electoral laws. The Biden administration, giving importance to the enactment of an election law shaped around ethnic lines in Bosnia, played a role that gave strength to the positions of the Bosnian Serbs.

Should Bosnia and Herzegovina Be Made a NATO Member?

NATO should speed up Bosnia's accession process. Bosnia has successfully implemented and continues to implement the NATO Membership Action Plan. The Bosnian Armed Forces have successfully demonstrated that they have made sufficient progress in terms of interoperability during recent major bilateral exercises with the US Army in Bosnia as part of the Defender Europe 21 exercise. Therefore, from a technical standpoint, NATO membership is a realistic near-term possibility for Bosnia. Considering how reluctant the Russians are to attack NATO members, it will be possible to ensure that Bosnia, which will be a member of the Alliance, is effectively excluded from Putin's hybrid and proxy attacks and ceases to be the soft core of the European security architecture. The West, which was late in Ukraine and Georgia, should not leave the Bosnians alone against the Serbs again, and should not allow a second genocide to take place.

Conclusion:

Russia's tragic war of aggression against Ukraine is a bitter reminder that appeasement of tyrants is never a long-term solution. Bowing to the powerful gun tactics of Dodik and Covic is the same strategy the West hopes will satisfy Putin. The appeal could help malicious actors destabilize Bosnia and the Balkans.