Where Is the Russia-Ukraine War Heading?

Summary of the battle:

The Russian occupation, which started at 06:00 on February 24, 2022, is witnessing new operational trials in Ukraine. In the first days of the war, the air campaign initiated by the Russian Air Force started very quickly and ended quickly, it stopped abruptly after bombing Ukrainian airports and some strategic facilities, and left its place to ballistic missile warfare.

The cautious approach of the Russian Air Force to the battlefield has given Ukraine self-confidence since the beginning of the war, and although Ukraine did not lift any aircraft, it was able to destroy an important Russian oil facility close to the border region with a low-flying helicopter operation.

Likewise, it is known that Ukraine uses UAV and SİHA systems very effectively. With his SİHA attacks, he carried out a significant number of attacks on the Russian land power and provided deterrence.

An important development in the operation is that the Russian ground operation, which has been going on for two months, could not come to Kiev and retreated for the last fifteen days. The ground operation, which was started in rainy weather, left its place to silence after a while, and then a convoy of reason was encountered in the direction of Ukraine.

The news that the tanks made by international agencies got stuck in the mud on the land and therefore a convoy formed on the highway added a new tragic dimension to the operation. The fact that the operation did not gain momentum in the following days confirmed this view.

Does Russia have a chance to declare an early victory?

It is a fact that Russia could not use the already known war strategies and tactics in a timely and effective manner. The Air Operation started very quickly and ended very quickly, while the Land Operation displayed an extremely heavy and cumbersome appearance. As a result of the support of the offensive air operation carried out in the first days of the war with the land force, it caused a disconnection between the air operation and the ground operation, and it almost turned into a joint operation of the forces belonging to two separate states.

After a Kyiv siege operation that lasted for two months did not take place, the land operation was changed with a new strategy and new positions were created by withdrawing the forces that came to the vicinity of Kyiv. This situation shows that the planning made from the beginning of the operation was not prepared in detail and the new planning came into play.

Who benefits from prolonging the war?

Apart from the bombing of the airports and the destruction of military aircraft and equipment since the beginning of the war, it was the civilian population that achieved a military success, and according to the official figures, five million Ukrainian citizens left the country and sought refuge in neighboring countries.

The declaration of Russia on 21 March 2022 that it has captured the city of Mariopul, which is located on the Black Sea coast and in the strategic region close to the Crimea, shows that the war will continue and it comes to the city of Melitopol.

Despite all these negativities, the answer to the question of what caused the prolongation of the war to turn to Russia's advantage explains everything.

From the first day of the war, the only promise of both the USA and the western states to Ukraine was to provide weapons aid. In addition to the significant number of medium and long-range air defense missiles and weapon systems that the USA has given so far, Germany, France, England and Israel have sold and continue to sell a significant amount of weapons.

The war almost gives birth to a very important arms market and it turns into a situation where the end of this war will not benefit anyone.

A significant number of western arms dealers entered the race to sell western origin arms to Ukraine and an important economy started to return from here. The most risky situation encountered in wars has begun to be experienced. The proliferation of forces fed by the dark and dirty environment is the most important factor that pollutes the wars and deepens the hostilities.

What is Turkey doing?

Turkey has risen to the position of the most reliable country in the world with its peaceful and balanced policies since the first day of the war. The policy, which was summarized with the slogan "We Don't Give Up on Russia, We Don't Give Up on Ukraine", was embraced by both sides and received a positive reaction. As a result of the efforts to bring both sides together, important agreements were reached as a result of the meetings held in Istanbul and a very important success was achieved in the civilians leaving the cities. This atmosphere of trust has turned into a living space provided to Ukraine.

What to do next?

It is a fact that the western powers that dominate the world arms market, instead of building peace, the constant race to sell arms to Ukraine and new promises will only prolong the war, kill more soldiers, and displace innocent civilians from their homes. If the war turns into a mutual killing race, there will be a massacre, which is a shame on humanity.

The most effective move that needs to be made is to force both sides to peace by encouraging the peace talks initiated by Turkey and which have taken a certain distance, by all the sovereign powers, and to end this chaos. This move will be the most important move for Humanity.