The Damascus Administration in the New Syria: Will It Compromise or Remain Sovereign?

The answer to this question will directly affect the new geopolitics of the Middle East as well as its new hydropolitics. When Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Ashaq al-Ashara entered Damascus two days after leaving Idlib, he probably did not think that the political road ahead would be so difficult and problematic. However, developments have clearly shown that the road to political stability in Syria is fraught with many geopolitical pitfalls and landmines, even before a year has passed.

The management of transboundary waters will play a major role in the political stability of the region. For this reason, how transboundary waters, particularly the Euphrates and Tigris, will be managed is a very important issue that is also being closely monitored by external powers. The future of transboundary water management in the region is directly linked to the future of Syria. Syria's stable future is also directly related to control over water and oil resources in Syria. This situation confronts us with the question of whether a central political authority that will control all resources in Syria can be established.

Conflicts in Alevi and Druze regions

The chronology of conflicts within Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime and Israel's military interventions have raised questions about the reliability of the current regime.

The bloody conflicts, which first emerged in the west among the Alawites and then in Suwayda among the Druze, reveal the risks of managing the transition process in Syria through coercion rather than compromise.

After the overthrow of the Assad regime, Sheikh Hikmet al-Hicri, one of the most influential Druze spiritual leaders in Syria, called for the community to be placed under international protection. This signalled a major shift that caught the attention of those increasingly distancing themselves from Damascus.

The Shara government believes that time and power are on its side. It expects negotiations with community leaders to lead to short-term local ceasefires and a gradual weakening of the resistance. However, Israel's readiness to exploit instability to undermine Damascus's efforts at national consolidation and its military operations are disrupting these plans. Israel's direct and escalating intervention in Syria's political future appears likely to disrupt many plans and complicate calculations.

The Abraham Partnership Process for a New Middle East

Recent events in Syria have led to the postponement of plans for the country to join the Abraham Accords in the near future. Finally, the outbreak of sectarian violence targeting the Druze population in Suwayda, approximately 80 kilometres from the Israeli border, has created a difficult situation for Israel, which is already in a sensitive period. Despite this, Israel's military response to the region and Damascus was again very harsh.

The central government in Damascus is unable to assert its full authority over the country and is suffering from an erosion of trust as a partner. This makes it difficult for Damascus to call the shots and allows Israel to disrupt any developments that run counter to its own plans.

Israel is acting with great ease over Syria, whose air defence security has been eliminated. However, other regional actors, especially Turkey, will be very cautious about entering the region as an official guest of Syria. Considering the armed clashes that have been ignited in several areas so far and the SDG-PYD's attempts to play for time and increase uncertainty with its statements, the situation on the ground seems likely to remain tense in the foreseeable future.

Damascus' Strategy: Reconciliation or Sovereignty?

The answer to this question must naturally be ‘sovereignty’ if the reality on the ground in Syria and the regional and extra-regional powers involved in the region's geopolitics are not taken into account. Reconciliation and sovereignty do not seem very likely.

It is not yet clear whether Syria will achieve stability under Sharia law, but the Trump administration has opened the door to stability by lifting sanctions on Syria. However, Damascus is aware that this development does not guarantee a thaw in relations with Israel. It is also very concerned about a wider regional conflict that could involve other regional actors such as Turkey. This critical balance plays into the hands of Israel and the YPG-SDG, which predict that Damascus will not be able to play the sovereignty card, especially in north-eastern Syria.

In conclusion, the reality on the ground shows that it will be very difficult for Damascus to establish political sovereignty over the whole country on its own. At present, Damascus can only seek compromises that will not jeopardise its political sovereignty in the future. It also continues to seek international support for its quest for political sovereignty. However, Israel is constantly disrupting this critical balance. Damascus therefore finds itself caught between the imperatives of compromise and sovereignty, and is struggling to manage a very difficult process.

High risk of increased violence in the region

There is an urgent need for a negotiated, peaceful solution for the reunification of Syria. If such an agreement is not reached, there is a high risk that violence will flare up again. Any new escalation could quickly spread beyond the local level and affect other regions, threatening regional stability.

Any military, political or economic blows to the Syrian government's sovereignty-reconciliation process will invite instability in the region. Unless this situation is brought under control through the alliance of international powers and regional forces, armed groups and separatists will be emboldened and Syria's national unity will be at risk.

Eş-Şara is aware that he has entered uncharted territory and must continuously update his calculations. Additionally, the region's new geopolitics inevitably brings a new hydropolitical order to the agenda. Furthermore, the variables in the region's Peace, Stability, and Security Equation are increasing.