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Target Analysis in Warfare: Objectives, Effects, Strategic Importance and Modern Technologies

Target analysis is, in military literature, the process of employing combat power to achieve desired objectives within the framework of an overall operational plan by destroying, neutralising, disrupting or harassing enemy capabilities and resources.

In this century, and particularly in recent times, we have witnessed numerous wars taking place around us and across the world. Regardless of who was right or wrong, we have seen and watched as many children and innocent civilians—and even people lying in hospital beds—have lost their lives as a result of being bombed. In addition, we have witnessed the flight or migration of millions of people from their home countries to other nations. The countries where these wars have taken place include, primarily, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Gaza and, most recently, Iran.

In particular, to highlight the wrongfulness of targeting children, civilians, the sick, or innocent people who have no connection to the war, and to draw attention to the legal aspects of warfare—specifically addressing questions such as ‘Which targets may be struck in war and what are their characteristics?’—I wished to discuss the topic of ‘What is Target Analysis?’. For this purpose, preparing this article became a necessity for me.

Target analysis is a critical process that plays a central role in the planning and execution of modern military operations. This study comprehensively examines the fundamental objectives of target analysis, its impact on warfare, and its strategic importance. Furthermore, the contributions of technological tools currently in use, particularly artificial intelligence and satellite systems, to target analysis are discussed. The study demonstrates that target analysis is a multidisciplinary field encompassing not only military but also economic, cyber and psychological dimensions.

1. Introduction

The modern understanding of warfare has evolved into a structure far more complex than traditional frontline warfare. Today, wars are conducted not only in physical domains but also in areas such as information, cyberspace and public opinion. This shift has broadened the scope of target analysis and necessitated the use of more sophisticated methods.

In military literature, target analysis can be defined as the process of employing combat power to achieve desired objectives within the framework of an overall operational plan by destroying, neutralising, disrupting or harassing enemy capabilities and resources.

As a process, target analysis is a continuous cycle—one that must be repeated and updated constantly—encompassing the identification of enemy personnel and weapon systems to be engaged in a potential attack, the determination of which enemy targets to attack, the selection of weapon systems and tactics to be employed in the attack, the execution of the attack, and the assessment of its effects.

However, a commander’s discretion in selecting targets for an attack is not unlimited. In addition to the tasks and political imperatives imposed by higher command and the nature of the threat, directing attacks solely at lawful targets is an inalienable rule of all military operations. The provisions defining which targets are lawful—including which targets may be attacked—as well as the means and methods to be used in the attack, are set out in international humanitarian law.

Consequently, analysis and assessment form a fundamental component of the process of target selection and engagement. Put simply, the law of armed conflict dictates to commanders whether the enemy personnel, facilities and locations selected for a planned attack constitute military targets, and whether the weapon systems to be used in attacks against them are lawful.

Target analysis is a systematic process that determines which enemy elements must be neutralised. This process enhances the effectiveness of military operations whilst also ensuring the efficient use of resources. Correct target analysis can shorten the duration of the war and provide strategic superiority.

2. Definition and Purpose of Target Analysis

Target analysis is the process of identifying, assessing and prioritising enemy elements.

The primary objective of this process is to reduce the enemy’s combat capability to the maximum extent possible at minimum cost.

The main objectives are as follows:

· Identification of critical infrastructure

· Targeting command-and-control systems

· Disruption of logistics lines

· Establishment of psychological superiority

In this context, target analysis encompasses not only military elements but also economic systems, energy infrastructure and communication networks.

3. The Effects of Target Analysis on Warfare

Target analysis is one of the most significant factors directly influencing the course of a war. Accurate analysis enables greater impact to be achieved with fewer resources.

Main effects:

· Increased operational efficiency

· Shorter duration of the war

· Reduction in civilian casualties (through accurate targeting)

· Weakening of enemy morale

Incorrect target analysis, however, can lead to serious consequences. For example, the selection of the wrong targets can result in both a waste of resources and violations of international law.

4. Strategic Importance

Target analysis is one of the cornerstones of military strategy. The correct identification of strategic targets can directly influence the outcome of a war.

Strategically important targets include:

· Energy infrastructure

· Communication systems

· Transport networks

· Financial systems

Neutralising such targets severely limits the enemy’s ability to wage war.

5. Historical Development

Target analysis has been an integral part of warfare throughout history. However, with the advancement of technology, this process has become more systematic.

· World War I: Limited intelligence and reconnaissance

· World War II: Aerial reconnaissance and radar systems

· The Cold War: The advent of satellite technology

· The Present Day: Artificial intelligence and big data analytics

This evolution demonstrates that target analysis has become increasingly complex and technologically advanced.

6. Types of Intelligence and Target Analysis

Target analysis is carried out through the integration of different types of intelligence:

· HUMINT: Human intelligence

· SIGINT: Signals intelligence

· IMINT: Imagery intelligence

· OSINT: Open-source intelligence

The combined use of these sources enables more accurate and reliable analyses.

7. Modern Technological Tools

The primary tools used in target analysis today are as follows:

· Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

· Advanced sensor systems

· Data analytics platforms

· Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

These technologies accelerate decision-making processes by providing real-time data.

8. The Role of Satellite Systems

Satellite technologies have brought about revolutionary developments in target analysis.

Key advantages:

· Wide-area surveillance

· High-resolution imaging

· Continuous monitoring capability

· Real-time data transmission

Satellite data is of critical importance, particularly for identifying strategic targets and tracking movements.

9. Artificial Intelligence and Target Analysis

Artificial intelligence is increasingly being utilised in target analysis. In particular, machine learning algorithms can analyse large datasets to identify patterns. (A pattern is a sequence formed by the regular repetition or expansion of shapes, numbers, symbols or sounds according to a specific rule)

Contributions of artificial intelligence:

· Target prioritisation

· Threat prediction

· Automated data analysis

· Decision support systems

This reduces human error and accelerates analysis processes.

10. Big Data and Analytical Approaches

In modern warfare, data has become one of the most important resources. Thanks to big data analytics:

· Enemy movements can be analysed.

· Future scenarios can be predicted.

· Risk assessments can be carried out.

This approach makes target analysis more scientific and systematic.

11. Target Analysis in Cyber Warfare

Cyber warfare is a significant dimension of modern conflicts. The scope of target analysis in this field includes the following:

· Critical infrastructure (electricity, water, internet)

· Banking systems

· Military networks

The accurate identification of cyber targets can yield results as effective as physical attacks.

12. Asymmetric Warfare and Target Analysis

Target analysis in asymmetric warfare is more challenging because the enemy is typically organised in an irregular and dispersed manner.

In this context:

· Flexible analysis methods are required.

· Local knowledge becomes crucial.

· Social and cultural factors are taken into account.

In such conflicts, traditional targeting methods may prove inadequate.

13. Ethical and Legal Dimensions

Ethical and legal principles hold great importance in target analysis.

Core principles:

· Protection of civilians

· Proportional use of force

· Distinction between military and civilian targets

International law prohibits the violation of these principles.

14. Future of Target Analysis

Target analysis is expected to develop in the following areas in the future:

· The widespread adoption of autonomous systems

· Greater integration of artificial intelligence into target identification and analysis

· Quantum computing applications

· Real-time global surveillance systems

These developments will make target analysis faster and more precise.

15. Recent Developments in Target Analysis

The 2026 Iran War is a conflict that began on 28 February 2026 with large-scale air strikes by the United States and Israel against various cities in Iran, and rapidly escalated into a regional military conflict as Iran targeted US bases in the region and the Israeli mainland with ballistic missiles.

According to statements by US and Israeli leaders, the war with Iran has numerous political objectives. The most significant of these are regime change and the elimination of Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.

Having a clear political objective in a war is important because achieving that objective signifies the end of the war.

Before a war begins, intelligence is gathered regarding the targets, and subsequently, the type and number of attacks, as well as the munitions required to eliminate these designated targets, are determined. After meticulous analysis of all potential damage and evaluation of the outcomes, the attack is carried out. If necessary, additional strikes are launched against these pre-determined targets.

Otherwise, in an incident such as the repeated striking of a school in Minab, Iran – where 175 girls were present – with Tomahawk missiles on 28 February 2026, the very first day of the US/Israel–Iran war, innocent civilians, children and people could lose their lives as a result of poor planning and execution.

Furthermore, Palantir, a US-based software company that has gained significant popularity in recent years, utilises artificial intelligence to gather information from numerous sources and provides data analysis software that compiles this information into graphs, tables and heat maps. Palantir’s clients include the Israel Defence Forces, the US Department of Defence, dozens of major companies and countries.

Despite Israel’s continued genocide against Palestinians, it is known that Palantir has been working in close collaboration with the Israeli military since January 2024, and that its office in Tel Aviv has expanded rapidly over the past two years.

At the Civil-Military Coordination Centre (CMCC), established by the US, the systems in use include ‘Maven’, an AI-powered targeting platform developed by Palantir that can collect and analyse surveillance data from conflict zones. The Maven platform integrates information gathered from satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles, telecommunications data, reconnaissance aircraft, the internet and open-source intelligence into a single application.

Described by the US military as an ‘AI-powered battlefield platform’, Maven has not been used exclusively in Gaza. The platform is utilised to direct US air strikes in numerous Middle Eastern countries, including Yemen, Syria and Iraq.

Palantir announced in November 2024 that Claude would be integrated into its own software, which is sold to US intelligence and defence agencies. The company states that the Claude integration enables analysts to produce data-driven detailed analyses, identify patterns, and support decision-making processes in situations where timing is critical.

On the other hand, Palantir and Anthropic have shared very few details to date regarding exactly how Claude is used within the military or in which Pentagon systems it is deployed.

However, it is claimed that AI has been used in some US defence operations, particularly in the recent conflict in Iran.

In January, it was suggested that Claude played a significant role in the US military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

An investigation by WIRED into Palantir software demos, public documents and Pentagon records offers significant insights into how the US military might utilise AI chatbots. These systems can assist analysts in sifting through vast amounts of intelligence data, identifying objects in images, analysing the movements of the opposing side and generating strategies for military operations.

Furthermore, Palantir’s relationship with the Pentagon is not new. Since 2017, the company has been one of the main contractors for Project Maven, the US military’s artificial intelligence programme. Developed under this initiative—also known as the ‘Algorithmic Warfare’ project—the Maven Smart System processes images from satellites and other sensors to identify potential targets using computer vision algorithms.

The system is managed by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and is assessed to be used by the following organisations:

a. US Army

b. Air Force

c. Space Force

d. Navy

e. Marines

f. CENTCOM, the command overseeing operations in the Middle East.

Cameron Stanley, the Pentagon’s director of digital and artificial intelligence, stated in a recent speech that the Maven system has been “deployed across the entire Department of Defence”.

Maven is capable of identifying objects in satellite imagery; for example, it can distinguish between vehicles, people or the enemy’s systems. Some features of the system directly support military target identification processes. For example, a tool can visualise potential targets, propose them for bombing, and suggest which aircraft and munitions should be assigned to which target.

One of the tools used for this purpose is the Artificial Intelligence Asset Tasking Recommender. This system tells users or planners which bomber aircraft or munitions should be directed towards which target.

One of Palantir’s newer systems, the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), allows users to issue commands directly via a chatbot.

A demo released by Palantir in 2023, which has recently resurfaced on social media, is significant in demonstrating how the system might operate.

According to the scenario:

1. Suspicious enemy movement is detected in radar imagery.

2. The AIP Assistant notifies the analyst of the situation.

3. The analyst asks, “Which enemy unit is in the area?”

4. The system estimates that it could be an armoured assault battalion based on the equipment configuration.

5. The analyst calls in an MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle to survey the area.

6. They then ask the chatbot to generate three different attack plans.

One of Claude’s military applications is the preparation of intelligence reports.

Kunaal Sharma, a public sector lead at Anthropic, demonstrated in a 2025 presentation that Claude could produce advanced analysis reports on the drone attack known as “Operation Spider’s Web” in Ukraine.

According to Sharma, artificial intelligence can reduce research and reporting processes that would normally take hours down to minutes. “Normally, I would spend hours researching for such a report. But there’s no time for that now,” said Sharma, adding that the analysis produced by Claude was “quite good”.

Claims that advanced artificial intelligence technologies played a significant role in the US military’s attacks on Iran have been in the news for some time. According to sources speaking to the Washington Post, the Pentagon utilised the most advanced artificial intelligence tools it has ever deployed in combat during operations that struck a thousand targets within the first 24 hours of the attack.

According to the sources, whilst planning the attacks on Iran, the Maven system—supported by the Claude AI tool—suggested hundreds of potential targets, determined their exact coordinates, and ranked them according to their strategic importance.

Some commentators, drawing on this, suggest that the primary school where 175 children lost their lives was also mistakenly targeted during AI-assisted targeting in the war. Indeed, it is theoretically possible that this system mistakenly targeted the school in question.

The US-basedNew York Times reported that the attack could have been part of an operation targeting a naval base near the school. The report states that the school building was part of a Revolutionary Guards naval base in 2013. It has been assessed that if the AI-powered targeting system used outdated data or unupdated satellite imagery in its analysis, it may have labelled this building as a ‘military facility’.

16. Conclusion

AI and satellite systems have ushered in a new era in target analysis.

Under current conditions, it is not possible to know with certainty—even with artificial intelligence—whether a target such as an underground bunker has actually been destroyed. For example, incidents such as the inability to determine the exact status of the Iranian nuclear power plant struck by the US during the 12-day Iran-Israel war will always remain a possibility.

Despite US President Trump’s claim that all targets in Iran had been struck, it will always be possible for Iran to launch dozens of missiles and drones daily towards the regions and countries where attacks on Iran are taking place.

Furthermore, previously identified targets must be continuously updated. Otherwise, there will always be a risk of incidents such as the striking of a school and the children inside it recurring.

The size of the country or region where the targets are located, the terrain conditions, and the abundance of civilian settlements necessitate that previously established plans are constantly updated and verified in real time.

Human intelligence (HUMINT) will always be required for such matters.

The assassinations that took place in Iran in early 2026 (the death of Ali Khamenei on 28 February) demonstrate that directly targeting religious and state leaders can increase regional instability and fundamentally alter the governance structure. Such actions constitute serious security threats that carry the risk of collapsing existing state systems and placing strain on theocratic and political structures.

· Risk of System Collapse: Targeting the religious leader at the heart of the country’s governance (as in the case of Iran) could undermine the government’s authority over the legislative, judicial and executive branches, leading to the risk of the system’s disintegration.

· Change of Leadership: The transfer of power to Mojtaba Khamenei following the assassination of Ali Khamenei demonstrates that such assassinations can directly lead to a change in leadership.

· Regional Security: Whilst warring parties generally avoid targeting leaders, in exceptional cases (historically, the example of the Japanese Emperor) or in current Middle Eastern conflicts, high-profile figures are targeted in an attempt to alter the course of the war.

· Political and Religious Symbolism: As national leaders also serve as religious or ideological symbols, attacks against them aim not only at physical destruction but also at ideological subversion.

Target analysis is an indispensable element of modern warfare. Technological advancements have made this process both more effective and more complex.

However, these advancements also bring with them the risk of the conflict spreading to the global economy and other countries or communities in the region, alongside ethical and legal responsibilities. For these reasons, target analysis must be approached in a way that balances all its technical, political, economic, energy, environmental and ethical dimensions. Otherwise, every incident occurring under the pretext of striking the targets of the nations currently at war will be labelled as inhumane massacres.