Provocative Thoughts, New Horizons (1)

If Taiwan Has Been Occupied:

We have been observing the military operation carried out by Russia on the territory of Ukraine for weeks, from many different fronts. You have read countless reviews and analyzes on this issue, both on television and on social media. I would like to ask the following question: What would happen if we substituted China for Russia and Taiwan for Ukraine?

This assumption has not yet been brought to our agenda. But I have no doubt that the problem is starting to make the Chinese ruling power sleepless. I am also sure that their economy, their military forces, especially the air, their civil social structures and the level of obedience of the people are evaluated separately. Frankly, it is certain that sanctions of this level will force Russia. But it can also be seen that a much more modest isolation can have much more lethal effects for China, which is more commercially integrated into the world than Russia.

Girl I'm Telling You:

There should be no doubt that this operation, spearheaded by the USA and the UK, will affect China's future and all its military or civilian strategies. And this brings to mind a motto that broke with Anatolian wisdom: I am telling you my daughter, you understand, my daughter-in-law.

Exponential War:

I would like to emphasize this issue. Not asymmetrical, not irregular, not city warfare, not proxy warfare, but another type of warfare, a completely different understanding of war has emerged before us. I personally like to define it as "Exponential War". Or: ExO Battles. As the series of articles develops, I think that this issue will start to settle in the minds of my readers.

You may be new to this concept. But you may remember that you came across different names and phrases and their crumbs in the past half-century of war history. For example, in General Norman Schwarzkopf's book "It Doesn't Take a Hero", you can observe that the US military designed its magnificent process of change and transformation starting from the time of the second world war.

What Does TRADOC Do?

Today's 30-year-old M1 Abrams, M2 Bradley, AH-64 Apache etc. It is sufficient to consider the process that designs and develops numerous weapon systems and platforms, and the role played by the TRADOC (Training and Doctrine Command) command in this process.

However, you will find the origins of TRADOC commanders' evaluations of strategy development and analysis meetings that lasted for days and nights, and the origins of maturing this process. These topics are covered in detail in the books written by the famous Futuralist couple Alvin and Heidi Toffler, especially "War and Anti-War". You will be astounded when you see how a concept called burrow wars is growing and greening there today. While contemplating the concept of "ExO War" that I will present to you, the words of Toflers will echo in your ears. "The ways of making war and making wealth have been similar in every period of history."

New War Doctrines Coming:

I haven't been able to write for a while because I first caught Covid and then seasonal flu. But during this time, I had the opportunity to watch news channels and programs. Seeing that all the military experts I came across were still quite far from the essence of the subject, it made me think differently. Therefore, I can say that I am deeply worried about the future of our army, just like the Russian Army. But there is one thing I do not doubt:

The policy makers of modern countries and the top management of their armies will analyze this military operation in all its details and intricacies. They will transform and restructure their armament policies, army structures, new weapons and ammunition systems according to these analyses.

Conclusion:

With similar thoughts, I would like to contribute to the world of Turkish thought and inform you about some issues that I consider necessary to be taken into account in the studies on these issues.