Alliances' Roadmaps Towards Elections

Dear friends, after the election date was set for May 14, 2023, the calculations for the elections have become the top agenda of politics. The election has two dimensions. Turkey will elect both the president and the members of parliament. Although the agenda is mostly shaped around the presidential election, it should be recognized that the parliamentary elections will also play a key role in the return to the parliamentary system. At this point, the Millet Alliance has stated in various statements that it is targeting 360 parliamentary seats in order for the Constitutional Amendment Proposal, which includes a return to a "strengthened parliamentary system", to be put to a referendum. This figure corresponds to the three-fifths qualified majority required for constitutional amendments under Article 175 of the Constitution. If the amendment is adopted by a two-thirds majority of 400 deputies, then it would be up to the President of the Republic to submit the amendment proposal to a referendum. Because of these calculations, the parliamentary arithmetic is also important for the transition to the agreed "Strengthened Parliamentary System". 

In addition to the two major alliances, the People's and National Alliances, the determining role of the Labor and Freedom Alliance, which can numerically influence the course of the elections, both before and after the presidential and parliamentary elections should not be ignored. The Labor and Freedom Alliance, which has a vote potential of around 10-15%, is a parameter that cannot be ignored in the equation. Now we can look at the latest situation of the alliances and what kind of communication strategy they are following.

What kind of strategy is the People's Alliance pursuing?

The People's Alliance seems to have adopted a propaganda strategy based on perception. The addition of the Kahramanmaraş earthquake to the deterioration in economic and social balances makes it difficult for the People's Alliance to conduct a fact-based propaganda process. Having entered the election process by succeeding to some extent in consolidating its own audience through the established media order, the Alliance's entire effort is focused on managing the perception of its rivals in society. Everyone is now aware that creating a success story out of this will not have any social repercussions!

Seeing this political and social reality, the People's Alliance, which prefers a divisive propaganda process based on perceptions, seems to have become a party to a dangerous game. Although it is not possible to define the opposition as a bloc, the communication strategy of the People's Alliance is based on the desire to perceive the opposition as a mono-bloc. The most important pillar of this strategy is the perception created in society through the HDP and the allegations that the Millet Alliance is acting together with the HDP. However, the HDP cannot be in open or covert cooperation with the National Alliance. The political structure does not allow this. The question is not whether this is true or false. Because HDP is a part of the Labor and Freedom Alliance, which is a separate formation. 

In this strategy where the HDP is marginalized, a virtual organic link is established between the HDP and the terrorist organization, and an attempt is made to create the perception that the opposition is collaborating with terrorism. Organic ties with a terrorist organization is a clear reason for a political party to be shut down. At the same time, it is announced that the parliamentary candidates of HUDA-PAR, which is almost certainly the political wing of another terrorist organization and has announced that it will support the alliance from the outside, will stand for election on AKP lists. In asymmetric communication, the AKP does not hesitate to use its media superiority with the support of state power. 

Another issue is that the People's Alliance has chosen to transform into a conservative far-right alliance based on religion. It can be said that the alliance has entered a process in which the negotiations in the alliance have gained visibility, especially after Fatih Erbakan, the chairman of the Yeniden Refah Party, who initially refused to join the alliance but joined the alliance at the last moment, withdrew his candidacy for the presidency. This is because Erdoğan, who seems to be lagging behind in the polls, is clearly making preferences that are closer to the theses of the structures that conduct religion-based politics on the issues discussed in the public debate. It is known that the vote rates of the parties that Erdoğan has brought under the roof of the alliance are not high enough to upset the balance in the election. It is a widespread opinion in the society that the parties chosen here were preferred on the basis of their social organization rather than their vote rates. This may of course mean that in the period leading up to and after the elections, a more hardline and organized electorate will be more dominant, more visible and more vocal on the streets (in the field). 

The AKP's propaganda strategy, which is based on perception and distorted reality, is carried out through the pillars of religion and nationalism. For this purpose, discourses that appeal to faith and emotions are preferred. 

Of course, in this propaganda preference based on polarization, it is assumed that there are "those who oppose religion and do not recognize religion on one side" and "pious believing masses" on the other; "traitors who act together with terrorists trying to divide the homeland on one side" and "heroic people who are patriotic, respectful of their history and follow the leader who protects and protects them" on the other. The society is bombarded with messages that the truth can never be known and can only be grasped by believing in it, using bright and generalized words. Above all, a patrimonial leader figure, who is seen as the "owner of the state", is positioned in the place of the "father", and it is dictated that one must believe and trust everything the father says in order to receive his affection. Those who do not believe in the "father" are accused of apostasy and treason. 

As to why I call all this a dangerous game, we can say that this approach feeds the tendency towards violence. As the polarization in society deepens in a way that cannot be reconciled ever again, it is observed that people tend to become violent and ruthless towards people and masses they perceive as "the other side". A social fabric is being formed where people justify all kinds of evil and punishment against those who do not think like them, where the law is ignored, and where people complete the judgment with faith. Following the Istanbul Convention, which Turkey has unilaterally entered into by bending legal processes under pressure from communities, the fact that the Law No. 6284 is also on the agenda of discussion raises concerns among women and people who have adopted a modern lifestyle. Looking at the current situation of the People's Alliance, it cannot be said that these concerns are unjustified. 

In addition, the fact that asylum-seekers from Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are ghettoizing in the cities, which will change the demographic structure of Turkey, rightly raises concerns among Turkish citizens about the policies that the People's Alliance will pursue in the future. The reality is that asylum-seekers are causing the living conditions of Turkish citizens to become more difficult in all areas and the GNP per capita is gradually declining. 

If the People's Alliance candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is elected, the negative consequences of this polarization may be experienced more intensely in society. In this process, it is also possible to say that religious organizations such as congregations, sects and similar religious organizations will be much more active in both state administration and social life than they are today. This repositioning will mean a further increase in conservatism and authoritarian rule in Turkey. In the face of an even more authoritarian government, the rights and freedoms of the individual will be as much as the "father" allows or deems appropriate. 

Conclusion

The only point that escapes the attention of the People's Alliance, which conducts a propaganda process that sometimes pushes the limits of people's perception of reality through a communication strategy based on perception, is that in the age we live in, the life span of lies has shortened. Although the electorate can only be consolidated with virtual reality through certain television channels, it would be overly optimistic to expect this to last very long. For the opposition, however, the People's Alliance's use of unrealistic propaganda techniques should be well understood and not taken lightly. Capturing people's brains through simplified images is the secret weapon of the Post Truth era. It is no longer important what the truth is, but what is believed. 

In the next article, I will focus on the latest situation of the Millet Alliance, its communication strategy and an analysis of the HDP's situation. With a month and a half to go before the election, everyone must be vigilant, knowing that what we see is much less than what we are likely to see. Because the Republic of Turkey is facing the most critical election in the history of the Republic. 

With respect and love...