Different calculations, same goals

Those who thought at the beginning of February last year that the Russia-Ukraine crisis would not turn into an all-out war did not take into account Putin's aggressiveness and the use of hard power. 

Those who predicted that Ukraine would be brought to its knees as a result of Putin's attack and that the war would end in a week did not take into account that Zelensky would resist with the support of the West and that the war would last for a long time. 

A similar miscalculation also emerged in domestic politics.

Those who thought that they had taken all kinds of precautions against the earthquake and pretended earthquake drills did not take into account that they would be inadequate in the face of the disaster. 

While the wounds of the earthquake had not yet healed, another earthquake occurred on the Turkish political scene. The intention and decision of the leader of the Good Party, Ms Meral Akşener, to leave the Alliance of Nations, formerly known as the Table of 6, has moved the stones in the political arena.

Those who thought that Akşener would not make such a turn did not take into account how political engineering was formed. 

Let us analyse what may happen in domestic politics after this stage. 

The Millet alliance announced that it will continue to function by returning to a 5-party structure from a 6-party structure. Within this framework, it is expected that the candidate of the alliance will be announced as Mr Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the President of the CHP. In this case, it is necessary to understand what kind of political stance the parties and formations outside the two alliances will adopt. 

After the announcement of Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, it remains to be seen which parties will support this candidacy and which parties will enter the election with a different candidate. In case the election goes to the second round, the Good Party and HDP, which are outside the Alliance, will have to support the same candidate. It should be seen that the situation of acting together while separated can only be possible with the Good party's separation from the Millet alliance and that, thanks to this separation, the unity with HDP is no longer an argument that can be used by the opposing alliance. 

Another noteworthy point is that the Good Party officials have stated that they will not enter the People's Alliance as a whole. Therefore, if the Good Party cannot nominate a candidate, or if the candidate it nominates does not make it to the second round, it will inevitably have to support the candidate of the Millet alliance. 

At that time, one cannot help but wonder why this separation was necessary, whether this separation has another meaning, and looks at the effect of this political event on the opposite bloc.

When we look at the effect of these developments in the Millet alliance on the opposite bloc, it seems that the People's alliance is pleased with the Good Party's departure from the Millet alliance. In fact, many people argue that this new situation will directly affect the election result and pave the way for the candidate of the Cumhur alliance. Then, in order to take advantage of this new situation, the People's alliance will want to hold the elections as soon as possible. The idea that the government will continue to rule, that is, that it will win the election, has been reinforced by this separation.

The discussions that the government is not likely to hold an election that it is not likely to win has completely changed with this new situation, the government has been instilled with the hope of winning again and the election has been made inevitable. The possibility of not holding elections has been removed from possibility.

In short, we have entered a very interesting political process in which the goals are the same but the calculations are different. No one should be surprised if the election results turn out to be shockingly surprising.