Election results, Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu, İmamoğlu and Change

For some reason, I did not feel like commenting immediately after the elections. I guess the reason is the lack of change and the unpleasantness of continuing to be governed routinely.

In the end, the presidential elections, which had been discussed for months and which went to a second round, were concluded. The constant disappointment of the masses expecting change was manifested again. 52% of the people, who must be satisfied with the status quo, did not want change and gave their approval for Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to rule the country for another 5 years. Although there is a possibility that this period may be reduced, especially if the economic conditions continue as they are, the reality is that Erdoğan has been authorized to rule the country until 2028. With another 5 years to add to his 21 years in power, Erdoğan has become a new member of the club of long-term power holders, which is not common in advanced democracies but is common in authoritarian regimes, with a total of more than a quarter century in power. In 52 out of 81 provinces, Erdoğan was in the lead, and his clear advantage in Central Anatolia, the Black Sea region and the earthquake region was particularly noteworthy. More than 27 million citizens, especially the people in these regions, decided to continue supporting Erdoğan no matter what happens, no matter what happens, no matter what happens to them, even if they complain about their situation, they must have seen the opposition, not the government, as responsible for what they are going through. Now we can definitely state the following fact. Love him or loathe him, Erdogan has written his name in Turkish political history as a very important political figure who has been able to consolidate a certain mass of people in such a way that he will not hand over power and who has managed to win elections no matter what happens, no matter what happens, even though his votes have been decreasing in recent elections.

There is no need to write about the country's problems one by one and make it depressing. It has been observed that the majority of people in this country believe that the government and its leader will solve these problems, which everyone is aware of. From this point of view, the supporters of Erdogan, who support him and ensure the continuation of his rule, are now individually responsible for any negativity that may occur in Turkey, for any possible regression in the economic, legal and freedom context, or for any issue that does not improve. It is also worth reminding them of this. Afterwards, statements like "I regret it, may my hand be broken!" will be meaningless.

Let's talk about Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Leading in 29 provinces, Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's 48% of the vote, higher than any of Erdoğan's rivals to date, is a significant achievement. On the other hand, the fact that he remained below 50%, and thus lost the election, means that he failed. 

In fact, Kılıçdaroğlu tried really hard, developed an important strategy, labored and struggled, but in the end he could not destroy his rival. He narrowed the gap between him and his rival, but could not close it. Therefore, there is both a success and a failure. The narrowing of the gap in every election is an important success for the opposition and its candidate Kılıçdaroğlu. Getting 25 million votes against the government and its leader Erdoğan, who uses all the means of the state, is a significant result, but if you cannot get ahead and get elected in this electoral system, this is also a failure. While it is sad for his supporters not to see someone like Kılıçdaroğlu become president, insisting on his candidacy in the next election means that these people will continue to be sad. 

The fact that Kılıçdaroğlu came out ahead in three big cities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, was not enough for him to be elected. In particular, the fact that the parties with low voting rates in the Millet alliance entered the parliamentary elections with the logo of the CHP and not with their own logos did not create the momentum envisioned, which both disturbed the CHP's ossified voters and caused the voters who broke away from the AKP to remain within its own alliance, that is, to turn to parties such as the YRP and MHP. Although Kılıçdaroğlu received nearly 25 million votes in the second round, he ultimately failed due to this wrong choice in the parliamentary election and discussions on change in the main opposition began.

The issues criticized on behalf of the opposition need to be taken into account, change needs to take place and preparations for the next elections need to start now. However, the fact that the same discussions have been going on after every election in the last 20 years, and that the changes have been minor rather than general, is an indication that the necessary lessons have not been learned. 

Before the 2024 local elections, Kılıçdaroğlu plans to preserve his gains in the municipalities with minor changes and to add new ones. In order to realize this goal, it can be assumed that he will not make a large-scale change. The first indication of a major change is the replacement of Kılıçdaroğlu by someone else as CHP leader. The second indicator is whether or not some of the people mentioned for change will run for mayor again. The most prominent person in this regard is Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul.

Imamoğlu expressed his desire for change in his speech at the 570th anniversary celebration of the conquest of Istanbul. His frequent use of the phrase "Dear young people" in his speech is an implicit statement that the road should be continued with young people. 

Again in his speech; "The Republic is the regime where the rulers know their limits." This statement was made in order to emphasize the need for the opposition's control over the government. Imamoğlu, as an indication that he has assumed the leadership of the opposition, sends a message to Erdoğan: "If you think that you will do whatever you want, you are wrong."

When we look at the issues emphasized by İmamoğlu, it is seen that he emphasized the discomfort caused by unjust conditions, polarization, insulting language, the use of terrorist, traitor-like expressions. His statement that the May 28 election results were unexpected and that he could not establish a mobilization of hearts is a criticism of his party, its leader and other party leaders. 

If we look at the highlights of İmamoğlu's speeches:

"We must rebuild the will for change." 

"They will leave as they came."

"The state must treat everyone equally and fairly."

"We will continue to walk together on this path that we believe is right. I will run faster on that path."

"I don't have learned helplessness." 

"The nation's will for change has succeeded. We need to listen to the voices that want change in this land. Even though the conditions are difficult, we will achieve change."

"We need to conquer hearts for change." These discourses are prominent. 

He also said against Erdoğan's policies;

"Someone may not respect the will of Istanbul. Neither you nor fabricated judicial decisions will be able to deliver Istanbul. We have conquered the hearts of Istanbul. I will never give up." His statements are indicative of İmamoğlu's desire to come forward as a rival to Erdoğan in the upcoming process.

In short; while Erdoğan will strive to do whatever he can legally do in his last term and whatever he thinks he is lacking, the other side will strive for change, the only thing that does not change. 

Change is inevitable. Only if this change happens in a conciliatory way, not in a quarrelsome and noisy way, can the current government change. If the change does not take place, or if it is a pushing, shoving, fighting and noisy process, Erdoğan will take advantage of it. In the event that the opposition fails to bring about the change that is needed, Erdoğan can make a new amendment to the law and easily extend his rule to 2033.

The last word is that as long as there is no change in the main opposition, Erdoğan will remain in power.