How can 'One Man' Governments in Turkic States be Sustained 'Till Death' with Constitutional Farce?

Unfortunately, democracy is seen as secondary in the geography of Turkic states. Whoever has somehow taken control of the state, it is preferred to hold a token election based on the approval of his 'one-man' regime by the people. The most obvious indication of this is the changes of government in Turkestan (including Azerbaijan), where heads of state usually die of natural causes. The most striking thing about these changes is that the person who replaces the former head of state has served in high positions such as prime minister or parliamentary speaker during his/her term, a kind of successor-successor relationship has been established. The worst examples in this respect are the political dynastic or sultanate regimes in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. 

Uzbekistan Example

Following its independence from Russia, Uzbekistan was ruled by Islam Karimov between 1991 and 2016. After Islam Karimov's death on September 2, 2016, Shevket Mirziyoyev won the presidential elections held on December 4, 2016 with 88.6% of the vote. 

Thus, President Mirziyoyev became the sole arbiter of the country's governance and, like his predecessor Islam Karimov, began to rule Uzbekistan in an oligarchic and authoritarian structure that he single-handedly constructed. When his 7-year presidential term expired, he led his country to an election in which he allowed almost no opponent to stand against him. Naturally, in the presidential election held on July 9, he won re-election with 87% of the vote. 

Mirziyoyev thus secured his position for another seven years. This election followed a constitutional amendment approved in a referendum on April 30th that extended the presidential term from five to seven years. The constitutional maximum of two terms was thus eliminated. This confirmed that Mirziyoyev will remain at the helm of Uzbekistan for another 7+7 years, 14 years in total, and will continue his authoritarian regime until 2037. If Mirziyoyev maintains his current power, we can already foresee that with an additional constitutional amendment in the 2030s, he will be able to remain at the helm of Uzbekistan for as long as he lives. Because who can prevent such a change in Uzbekistan's conditions?

How are heads of state elected in other Turkic Republics and for how many years?

The phenomenon of electing a head of state in Uzbekistan and changing the power through so-called democratic elections is also valid for other Turkic states. In Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and, in this sense, Azerbaijan, the current presidents continue to sit in the presidential offices with the same mentality and understanding. These states, which gained their independence after breaking away from the Soviet Union, know how to skillfully preserve their power by following the tactics and practices of Russian President Putin to remain in office 'forever'. 

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan is governed by a Presidential system. Saparmurat Atayevich Turkmenbashi (Niyazov) de facto ruled Turkmenistan between 1985 and 1991 and served as President of Turkmenistan for 15 years between 1991 and 2006. When Turkmenbashi died of natural causes in 2006, Kurbankulu Berdimuhamedov succeeded him as the second president of Turkmenistan. Berdimuhamedov joined President Turkmenbashi's team starting in 1997 and served as his deputy from 2001 to 2006. On December 21, 2006, after Turkmenbashi's death, he became acting president and then won the presidential elections in February 2007. He faced no significant opposition and won by a landslide (89.23%). He won the presidential election again in February 2012 with 97% of the vote. In the February 2017 presidential election, he won 97.69% of the vote and was elected president for the third time. In 2022, he did not participate in the presidential election in favor of his son, and this time Serdar Berdimuhamedov became the 'winner' of the election held on March 19, 2022 and took the presidential seat vacated by his father. Thus, a de facto political dynasty system was established in Turkmenistan.

Kazakhstan

Nursultan Äbişuli Nazarbayev was elected the first president of Kazakhstan by the Supreme Soviet on April 24, 1990. After Kazakhstan's declaration of independence, he became the first president of the Republic of Kazakhstan on December 24, 1990, winning 95% of the votes in the election in which he ran as the only candidate. Since then, he has served as President of Kazakhstan for 29 years. On March 19, 2019, he was forced to resign. 

After Nazarbayev's resignation, Kassym Jömert Kemeloglu Tokayev became the acting head of state and won the first place in the elections held on June 10, 1919. Tokayev was a politician who served as President of the Senate and Prime Minister under Nazarbayev.

Kyrgyzstan

Askar Akayevich Akayev served as the president of Kyrgyzstan from October 22, 1990 until he stepped down as a result of the coup d'état called the "Tulip Revolution" on March 24, 2005. With the 2005 Tulip Revolution, Kurmanbek Saliyevich Bakiyev, as the leader of the revolution, became the President of Kyrgyzstan and formalized his mandate in July elections of the same year. Bakiyev, who changed 7 prime ministers during his 5 years as president, was accused of corruption and nepotism, and despite all these, he was re-elected in 2009 and remained in office until the coup d'état in 2010. On April 7, he was overthrown by Rosa Otunbayeva. Her successor, Otunbayeva, continued to hold the presidency until December 31, 2011, in accordance with the constitution adopted on June 27. Almazbek Sharshenovich Atambayev, a former prime minister, served as president of Kyrgyzstan from 2011 to 2017. Almazbek Atambayev stepped down on November 24, 2017 and was replaced or forced to be replaced by his successor and former prime minister Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Jeenbekov has established a family clan regime in Kyrgyzstan.

Tajikistan

Imamali Sharifovich Rahman has served as president of Tajikistan since 1992, when Tajikistan established its political union. 

Azerbaijan

Ebulfez Elchibey won 59.4% of the vote in the election held on June 7, 1992 and became the president of Azerbaijan. When Elchibey dismissed the front commander Suret Huseynov, whom he deemed at fault in the First Karabakh War, Huseynov launched the Ganja coup attempt against him. Haydar Aliyev, the chairman of the parliament of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, who mediated between the two sides, convinced Elchibey to resign on June 17, 1993 on the grounds of preventing civil war. Heydar Aliyev became interim president and Huseynov became prime minister. On October 3, 1993, an election was held and Heydar Aliyev became president with 98.8% of the vote. Upon Heydar Aliyev's death in 2003, he won the presidential election and succeeded his father. The 2009 constitutional referendum abolished term limits for heads of state. In 2013 and 2018, he continued to rule by 'winning' the elections.

The Putin Example in Russia 

Under the Russian Constitution, the head of the executive power in the Russian Federation, the President, is elected by the people every six years. 

In 2000, following Yeltsin's resignation, he became acting president and was elected president for the first time less than four months later. In 2004, he was re-elected for a four-year term with 72% of the vote. Unable at the time to change the constitutional rule that he could not serve two consecutive terms as head of state, Putin, in a kind of subterfuge, arranged for First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to succeed him as head of state. On May 8, 2008, just one day after handing over the presidency to Medvedev, Putin was appointed Prime Minister of Russia in a power-shifting operation, maintaining his political dominance. From 2008 to 2012, he served as Medvedev's prime minister, in effect a shadow head of state. In an election on March 4, 2012, marred by fraud allegations and protests, Putin returned to the presidency with 63.6% of the vote. The last presidential elections in the RF were held on March 18, 2018, and Vladimir Putin was re-elected President with 76% of the vote. In April 2021, following the referendum, he signed constitutional amendments, one of which would allow him to run for re-election two more times and potentially extend his presidency until 2036. Now it is time for elections, which will take place in March 2024. They say Putin won't run in an election he can't win, and he probably won't.

Xi Jinping Model of Power in China

In China, where there is a one-party rule and party and state governance are intertwined, high-level state duties are seen as an extension of party power and are carried out by the same officials. In 2008, Xi, who has been a permanent member of the Politburo since 2007, was appointed Vice President of China. On November 7, 2012, as a result of the preparatory meetings for the 18th CPC National Congress, Xi was appointed as the general secretary of the congress and subsequently became the President of the People's Republic of China in 2013. Elected in 2018 for a second term, Xi succeeded in getting himself elected for a third term in 2023. The fact that the Chinese leader has extended his power to a third term, unlike the recent practice, is seen as a sign that Xi's "one man" position has been further consolidated in the new era.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in the neighboring lands of Turkestan are countries governed by the Presidential system. The common feature of all these countries is that they have a Soviet heritage of governance. The first heads of state of these states, which gained their independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, were generally appointed by the Communist Party, which ruled these countries during the Soviet era. It is an accepted practice in Turkic states that the President, the head of the executive, also de facto controls the legislative and judicial branches. The principle of 'separation of powers', a sine qua non of democracies, functions only formally in these countries. 

In some countries, the head of state can be elected for a maximum of two consecutive terms. However, this does not pose a problem for those in power. The method is very simple. They resort to constitutional shenanigans. Either the constitutional amendment is amended to remove the clause preventing a third or more consecutive elections, or the two-term rule is reintroduced with a so-called major change in the constitution, a reset, a reset. 

There is precedent for such constitutional shenanigans. When the Kremlin strongman pushed for a change in the Russian constitution, he achieved exactly the same result by allowing himself two six-year terms in addition to the two four-year terms he served from 2000 to 2008. This move was repeated in 2020, extending his rule until 2024. With the April 2021 constitutional reform, Putin was granted the right to serve two more six-year terms as president after 2024, virtually guaranteeing that he would remain at the helm of the Russian state until his death.

This is why I have no sympathy for the constitutional changes in Russia, China, Azerbaijan and Turkic states, including Turkey. This situation, which gives the appearance of underdeveloped democracy and oriental cunning to the outside world, does not suit the Turkic world at all. I do not think that the Turkic world can be a part of the democratic, modern civilized world until real democracy comes to this geography.