Nation Alliance Candidates

While it is almost certain that the candidate of the People's Alliance in the upcoming presidential election will be the current President, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the candidate of the Nation Alliance is not yet certain.

There are many candidate candidates that are talked about. As long as no statement is made from the components of the Nation alliance, it is inevitable that the candidate candidate inflation will occur.

It would be useful to briefly analyze the candidate candidates and their chances of winning the election in this inflationary environment and make a note of it in history.

The first person among the nominees of the 1st Nation Alliance is the leader of the Main Opposition Party, Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. It is not clear whether Kılıçdaroğlu will be a candidate, but there are comments that he will not be elected if he is a candidate. According to the new electoral system, the candidate of the alliance must be the common candidate of the entire alliance, not just the parties. The nation alliance has a complex political structure consisting of right, left, nationalist conservative, liberal and social democrats. Kılıçdaroğlu's left-wing political shirt and Alevi belief are the most important handicaps he could face in the second round if he is not selected in the first round. The election of Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round, on the other hand, does not seem possible today, according to the polls. Then there will be a second round, which will create a situation in Erdogan's favor. For this reason, Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy is also supported by the People's Alliance. I think that Kılıçdaroğlu, who is aware of this interesting support and two handicaps, will not be a candidate and will not play into the hands of the alliance against him, even though he pretends to be a candidate. In this context, it should be noted that Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy did not receive a high level of support from the Good Party.

2. The second important candidate is Ms. Meral Akşener, the head of the opposition's second largest party. Akşener was also a candidate in the last election. Akşener, who is thought to be a candidate in the next elections, said, "I want to be the Prime Minister." His exit was interpreted as not being a candidate. His nomination by the CHP or the alliance as a whole, not by himself or his party, would have had a positive impact. Thus, the support of the CHP voters would be provided and the Nation alliance would be consolidated. It was considered that Akşener could get votes from the Nationalist sections of the AKP and MHP. The idea of ​​joint candidacy of Akşener, who made his presence felt intensely in the field and started to hold the real agenda of the people, gained weight. However, Akşener's comment on the announcement of the 104 admirals with the expression "pompousness" caused the death of this partnership before it was born. It seems that Akşener can be a candidate on behalf of his party if he and his party do not approve of a joint candidate. The continuation of Akşener's candidacy in the second round can only happen if the CHP candidate passes, which seems very difficult in this conjuncture.

3. The CHP candidate of the last election, Muharrem İnce, is another candidate. If no candidate from the CHP is announced and a common candidate, like Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu in the previous Presidential election, is nominated, İnce, who has a significant vote potential, may come forward. Whether the candidate to emerge from the CHP is Kılıçdaroğlu, Yavaş, İmamoğlu or anyone else, İnce had announced that he would support this person in the second round, even if he was a candidate in the first round. In fact, Ince's departure from the party and his political stance as an alternative to an erroneous decision to nominate a candidate prevented Kılıçdaroğlu from appointing a joint candidate outside his own party, in the style of İhsanoğlu.

4. Another candidate who is constantly on the agenda is the 11th President of the Republic, Mr. Abdullah Gül. Gül is a candidate who is almost never on the agenda of the Nation alliance, but is in the hearts of the supporters of the People's alliance. The reason why it is brought to the agenda by Erdogan supporters as a candidate for the Nation alliance and kept on the agenda is that if Gul becomes a candidate for the Nation alliance, Erdogan will definitely win the election. Because, in such a situation, that is, as a result of Gül being the candidate of the Nation alliance, there may be hundreds of thousands who will not vote and Erdoğan will win the election in the first round.

5. It is understood that the head of the Deva party, Mr. Ali Babacan, and the Chairman of the Future Party, Mr. Ahmet Davutoğlu, may be individual candidates, but since they are not even in the alliance yet, they will not be the joint candidates of the Nation alliance. Since he is the junior partner of the alliance, it is unlikely that the Chairman of the Felicity Party, Mr. Temel Karamollaoğlu, will be the joint candidate of the alliance.

6. Another candidate whose name has come to the fore due to the recent economic problems is CHP Deputy Mr. İlhan Kesici. The advantages of Kesici are his knowledge of economy, his oratory ability, the potential to get votes from everyone, and the fact that he is a political personality that has not been worn out by the other party. If all alliance components and leaders approve of his candidacy, he is a candidate who will likely come to the fore over time.

7. People Pushed the two Metropolitan Mayors who were mentioned the most as candidate candidates. The success of both candidates in the Ankara and Istanbul Metropolitan Mayoral elections, which were managed by the AKP for a long time, and the increase in public support in the following period, caused the two presidents to be talked about as candidate candidates. The interesting thing is that both Mr. Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mr. Mansur Yavaş are nominated as candidates in the polls, surpassing President Erdoğan. The common problem of both Mayors is that they have to leave the Mayor's Office if they are candidates and the Mayor's Office will change hands due to the majority of the People's Alliance in both Municipal Councils. If this handicap is exceeded, there is a possibility that both candidates will be nominated. The odds of being selected also seem high according to the polls. If Yavaş becomes the candidate of the alliance, it can be thought that he will get votes from the resentful nationalists who voted for the AKP and MHP, just like Akşener, but it is a complete mystery whether he will get votes from the HDP in the second round. On the other hand, it has already been seen in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality elections that if İmamoğlu makes it to the second round, HDP can also get support. In short, if one of these two candidates is to be considered, what will be considered is whether the mayorship will be given up and whether the election can be won in the first round. In the final decision to determine the candidate of the Nation Alliance; The status of the polls on that day, the support of the alliance component parties, the performances of both presidents, their positive/negative effects on the people and their chances of being elected will be evaluated. If it is considered that the Nation alliance can win the election in the first round, then Yavaş's candidacy will come to the fore, if it is thought that the election will go to the second round. The most beautiful aspect of this reality is that both presidents compete in service and the people of Ankara and Istanbul will benefit from this. Let's also remind that the candidate should be determined a rational time before the elections, in order to prepare the candidate and explain what he will do to the public, that is, it should not be late.

The final word is that President Erdoğan should not leave the election to the second round in this political conjuncture and win in the first round. If the election goes to the second round, Erdogan's victory can only be due to the wrong choice of the candidate nominated by the Nation alliance. Therefore, neither the economy, nor domestic-foreign policy, nor security, and only the right or wrong candidate choice of the Nation alliance is the main factor that will determine the outcome of the next election.