The Election Paradox in Hungary

And finally, the long-awaited election day arrived in Hungary. Voting began at around 06:00 Hungarian time on Sunday 12 April and concluded at 19:00. According to figures from the Hungarian National Election Office (NVI), the elections saw a record turnout of nearly 80 per cent. This turnout rate is significantly higher than that of other European Union countries. Two main candidates stood out in these elections.

One: The well-known far-right leader of the Hungarian Civic Alliance–Christian Democratic People’s Party (FIDESZ-KDNP), Viktor Orbán, who first served as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002 and has held the post continuously since 2010 (16 years).

The other: Peter Magyard, the young lawyer and leader of the Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA), who, given his political background, is not very different from Orban and holds similar right-wing views.

The election results now appear to be almost certain. Indeed, Orban, who had stated before the elections that he would congratulate the winner, rang his rival Peter Magyard to offer his congratulations.

In his statement, Viktor Orban said: “Although the election result is not yet fully finalised, it is clear and unambiguous. The responsibility and opportunity to govern have not been granted to us,” and went on to congratulate the winning party.

According to the latest figures from the Hungarian National Election Office (NVI), the results from 98.94% of the counted ballot boxes are as follows:

- Tisza Party (Peter Magyard) with 53.41% of the vote and approximately 138 seats

- Fidesz Party (Viktor Orban) with 38.03% of the vote and approximately 55 seats

- Mi Hazank Party surpassed the 5% threshold to secure 6 seats

In the 199-member Hungarian Parliament, a two-thirds majority—at least 133 seats—is required to amend the constitution. With 138 members, the Tisza Party has secured the majority needed to amend the constitution.

Peter Magyard’s victory speech, delivered late at night, was summarised as follows:

- A peaceful transition to democracy

- A message of return to Europe

- A call to migrants to “Come home”

- Many laws passed during the Orbán era will be amended …

The Likely Outcomes of These Elections

Whilst the world is in turmoil and geopolitical fractures are occurring; the reasons these elections—which are of their own merit—are being discussed amidst such global upheaval are undoubtedly not limited to a change of Prime Minister. What is at stake here is a shift in mindset, understanding and approach. A process of redesign is beginning in the heart of Europe, where the cards of global and regional actors are set to be reshuffled. In this new redesign process, Viktor Orban’s departure has likely saddened his closest allies—Trump, Putin and Netanyahu—the most. The primary reason for this is that Orban served as a rear guard for them within the European Union.

Indeed, just a few days before the election, Trump sent his aide JD Vance to Hungary to support Orban at his rally. He even called in to request Orban’s support. Similarly, the support of Putin and Netanyahu was well known. Orban and Trump shared similar policies regarding opposition to migrants and the LGBT community. At this stage, it has become possible to say the following: following the Iranian attack, it appears that the Hungarian election results will have a negative impact on Trump’s campaign in the US elections this November.

As for Netanyahu, Orban supported the Gaza Genocide; despite the arrest warrant issued against Netanyahu by the International Criminal Court (ICC), he hosted Netanyahu in Hungary and made a gesture of goodwill towards him.

As for Orbán’s relations with Putin, his departure seems likely to complicate matters for Putin somewhat. Although Orbán has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in practice he has consistently acted against Ukraine’s interests. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Hungary has continued to import natural gas from Russia, alongside other European Union countries. Furthermore, and most importantly, Hungary has vetoed many of the aid packages and funds the European Union wished to send to Ukraine, as well as the sanctions it sought to impose.

Consequently, the arrival of Peter Magyard, who is aligned with the European Union, is currently viewed as negative from Putin’s perspective and positive from Zelensky’s.

However, in recent years, such unpredictable geopolitical developments have unfolded that, viewed through the lens of the inherent nature of international relations—“THERE IS NO ETERNAL FRIENDSHIP OR ENMITY BETWEEN STATES, THERE ARE ONLY INTERESTS!” the emergence of unimaginable new alliances and opposing coalitions should come as no surprise.

For instance, when looking at certain recent developments, the picture becomes even clearer.

- Whilst the US was at war with Iran, it temporarily lifted the oil embargo on Iran to keep global oil prices in check.

- The European Union had suspended a draft law planning to completely ban oil imports from Russia due to tensions in the Middle East and the energy crisis.

In short, as the old saying goes: “Don’t roll up your trousers before you’ve seen the river”.