What Happens to These US Presidents?

The US will go to the elections in November to determine its new president. For this reason, the most preoccupying issue in the US domestic public opinion these days is the increasingly heated presidential race. On 27 June 2024 on CNN, a debate between two presidents, one former and one incumbent, is taking place for the first time in the history of US domestic politics. Besides the fact that both candidates are elderly and both are presidents, they have one more thing in common; both of them have recently occupied the political agenda with the investigations and prosecutions carried out against them and their relatives. Although Trump is by far ahead in the lawsuits against them, Biden is not lagging behind in giving material to his rival in this regard.

There are four lawsuits against Trump, one of which has been finalised at the first instance court stage and three of which are in the prosecution stage. If we go in date order, the first one is the "Hush Money Case", which resulted in Trump being found guilty by the first instance court on 30 May. In this case, Trump is accused of falsifying the records of around $130,000 paid to adult film star Storm Daniels through his lawyer Michael D. Cohen in order to influence the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. Trump allegedly wanted to cover up his previous affair with Storm Daniels by giving her hush money so that it would not negatively affect the election results. In the "Georgia State Election Case", the investigation of which began in February 2021, he is accused of plotting to change the results of the state election he lost in 2020 in his favour. In the "6 January Case", which started to be investigated in December 2021, it is alleged that he made various plans and initiatives that resulted in the 6 January Congressional Raid in order not to leave power despite losing the 2020 Presidential Election against Biden. The "Secret Documents Case" began to be investigated in March 2022. In this case, Trump is accused of taking sensitive and classified documents to his private residence after leaving the presidency by not properly preserving them. The former US President is also accused of obstructing efforts by government officials to recover the documents. Trump has so far only been tried in the "Hush Money Case" and his guilty verdict by a jury was announced on 30 May. A verdict on the punishment for the crime is expected on 11 July. Trials have not yet begun in the other cases.

Current US President Biden's case files are not as extensive as Trump's. In the report prepared by Rober Hur, the Special Authorised Prosecutor appointed by the US Attorney General, it is stated that Biden kept some confidential documents in his private residence during his Vice Presidency. Although Prosecutor Hur concludes in his report that there is no need to open a criminal investigation for Biden, the fact that Biden's rival Trump is being prosecuted for a similar offence brings the issue to the centre of political debates. According to Special Authorised Prosecutor Hur, in addition to factors such as Biden's old age and forgetfulness that mitigate his fault, his cooperation with the authorities during the investigation phase was also effective in not proceeding to the prosecution phase. Although Biden himself is not directly the subject of the lawsuit, another judicial process that caused him political headache is related to his son. On 11 June 2024, his son Hunter Biden was found guilty in a trial for possessing a gun while addicted to drugs. Republicans are trying to wear down Biden by claiming that this case is proof that Biden and his family are involved in illegal affairs and that this is the tip of the iceberg. Democrats, on the other hand, argue that Hunter Biden's conviction is an indication that President Biden does not use his influence and respects the law.

It is a matter of curiosity what impact the legal processes in the US will have on the presidential election. For the first time in US history, a former president and the son of a sitting president have been convicted. It can be argued that whether the trials start before the election, result in conviction or acquittal, or are postponed until after the election, each of them will have different effects on different voter bases. In a general assessment, it can be argued that the fact that the trials against Trump started before the election and resulted in a conviction will have an effect against Trump, while the fact that they resulted in an acquittal or were postponed until after the election will have an effect in his favour. As a matter of fact, according to a survey conducted after Trump's conviction, 10 per cent of Republicans think that they are unlikely to vote for Trump in the presidential election (9). Nevertheless, it can be argued that Trump supporters will not be affected much by the lawsuits against him due to the election atmosphere and that they will rally around their candidate due to the feeling of victimisation. Indeed, after the "Hush Money Case" was concluded against Trump, donations for the Trump campaign increased (3). For liberals, it can be argued that the lawsuits against Trump will have an effect that will support their opinions about him and tighten their ranks. The fact that no case has been filed against Biden and that his son has been convicted of a relatively minor offence for now, despite the bigger allegations against him, is not thought to have a very negative impact on the electorate. On the other hand, as always, the attitude of swing voters will be decisive. It is possible to assess that the issues that directly concern them such as the cost of living, inflation, unemployment, immigrants, and the right to abortion will be more influential in their decision than the legal processes against the presidents.

Although these cases are not decisive in terms of the results of the presidential elections, it can be said that they will have negative effects on the prestige of the US in the international community. At a time when China and Russia are increasing their search for alternative partnerships against the US and NATO, western democracies will want to see a strong and respected US President. On the other hand, as in the saying "everyone is governed as he deserves to be governed", the situation of the current US presidential candidates shows the predicament of the US society and political structure. The reflection of this in world politics can be seen in many crisis and conflict zones from Afghanistan to Syria, Ukraine to Israel, Libya to Taiwan.

References:

(1) "Keeping Track of the Trump Criminal Cases", 30 May 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/trump-investigations-charges-indictments.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-trump-civil-inquiry&variant=show&region=MAIN_CONTENT_3&block=storyline_top_links_recirc, accessed 22.06.2024.

(2) "Trump Found Guilty In Hush Money Trial", 30 May 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/30/politics/donald-trump-hush-money-trial-verdict/index.html, accessed 22.06.2024

(3) "Trump Campaign Raises Record $34.8 Million In Donations After Guilty Verdict", 31 May 2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/31/trump-campaign-donations-record.html, accessed 27.06.2024.

(4) "Convictions of Biden's Son and Trump Put the Justice System on Trial", 11 June 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/us/politics/hunter-biden-trump-convictions-justice.html, accessed 22.06.2024.

(5) "Hunter Biden Conviction Undercuts a Trump Narrative, and a Fund-Raising Pitch", 11 June 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/us/politics/donald-trump-hunter-biden.html, accessed 25.06.2024.

(6) "Biden Angrily Pushes Back At Special Counsel's Report That Questioned His Memory, Handling Of Docs, 09 February 2024, https://apnews.com/article/biden-hur-garland-classified-documents-836b99fe9cbef9ba7d32602f4928efec, accessed 25.06.2024.

(7) "Takeaways From The Special Counsel's Report On Biden's Handling Of Classified Documents", 09 February 2024, https://apnews.com/article/biden-classified-documents-age-trump-2024-4791639cc06cc0affee55aba80c7e6b3, accessed 25.06.2024.

(8) "Hunter Biden, Found Guilty of Illegally Acquiring Weapons in the US, Cannot Practice Law", 25.06.2024, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/abdde-yasa-disi-silah-edinmekten-suclu-bulunan-hunter-biden-avukatlik-yapamayacak/3258070 accessed 26.06.2024.

(9) "Exclusive: One In 10 Republicans Less Likely To Vote For Trump After Guilty Verdict, Reuters/Ipsos Poll Finds", 01.06.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-10-republicans-less-likely-vote-trump-after-guilty-verdict-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-31/, accessed 27.06.2024.

(10) "Donald Trump Becomes the First Former President in US History to Be Found Guilty; What Will Happen Next?", 31.05.2024, https://tr.euronews.com/2024/05/31/donald-trump-abd-tarihinde-suclu-bulunan-ilk-eski-baskan-oldu-bundan-sonra-ne-olacak, accessed 26.06.2024.