What should the May 14th Election Strategy be?

May 14, 2023 is an important day for our country. The election to be held in our country on this date has a different aspect. 

The Presidential election on the one hand and the parliamentary election on the other makes this election different from the previous elections. 

The most important issue in the parliamentary system is the parliament and the power that can reach the majority in the parliament. 

The best thing in a parliamentary system is the government that has the majority to amend the Constitution. 

In order to amend the Constitution, an amendment must first be proposed. Then this proposed law must be voted on and accepted by the Parliament with a certain majority. If we talk about the current total number of deputies in the Parliament, which is 600, an amendment can be proposed by 200 deputies, which is at least one third of the total number of deputies. However, for this proposal to be accepted, a three-fifths majority, i.e. 360 deputies, must approve the amendment.

Another important issue for Turkey in recent times is the Presidential system and its functioning. Many decisions can be taken and implemented by the President, i.e. the President. 

In our country, decisions on some issues can still be enacted into law by the President and put into practice with the approval of the President. 

In the new period, the parties and groups promising to return to the parliamentary system before the elections will first need to get 360 or more deputies in the Parliament in order to realize their promises. This is a necessary criterion to realize the desired constitutional amendment. 

360 MPs or more can change the Constitution and the presidential system and put an end to the presidential system. Turkey can switch to the parliamentary system that Turkey has seen and experienced in the past.  In parliamentary systems, the head of state or the president are symbolic positions that are not active in the governance of the country and represent the state. Thus, the power to make laws and the form of government can be returned to the parliament. 

It is because of this current situation that the possible outcomes of the elections to be held in our country on May 14, 2023 are of particular importance. 

To put it more clearly; this election will be an important decisive election for the debates on whether the Presidential system in our country is completed or continued. 

According to the possible results of the election, the number of deputies of the group formed by one or more parties may reach 360.  On the other hand, it is also on the agenda that the Presidential candidate supported by that party and parliamentary group may not be elected.  

If the parliament changes the Presidential system with the majority of deputies belonging to the political groups that have the majority in the parliament, the President will only have the power of representation. Under certain circumstances, he may be deprived of the power to make laws.

In the meantime, if the elected or incumbent President or President does not accept this transition to a parliamentary system, that is, the restriction of his powers, he will fight against this law and constitutional amendment in some way. 

This strategic decision-making is the most important decision Turkey will make in the elections to be held on May 14th. 

No matter who the voters choose as MPs, the main event will take place in the presidential elections. 

Whether or not the President will continue with the powers he has today will be in the hands of the MPs and parties that have the majority in the Parliament and exceed 360. But this requires certain conditions. 

The party or parties that obtain 1/3 of the votes can get roughly 200 deputies. That leaves 400 deputies. This is a sufficient number to change the Constitution. But it requires a joint decision of all winning parties. 

According to the current Constitution and the Presidential system, the President-elect has the right to dissolve the Parliament at any time. In this way, while the TBMM cannot control the president and limit his powers, the president can control the authority and effectiveness of the TBMM, i.e. the parliament, and can overrule it at any time. The power to dissolve the Parliament at any time reminds us every minute that the Presidency is the most important office. 

Therefore, parties that will not be able to obtain a majority in the parliament will work with all their might for the Presidency.  This is because the President has the power to dissolve the Parliament, which we can call the zero multiplier effect. 

Thus, the President will be able to dissolve the Parliament, which has set out to limit the President's powers and amend the Constitution, at any time and many times because the President does not see it in line with his own understanding. 

Turkey could relive the situation of years ago when the President could not be elected, but this time the Parliament would be renewed through repeated elections. But this time it will be the Parliament that will be re-elected. 

In other words, if the President does not like it, or until his party comes to power, he will be able to dissolve the Parliament again and again and again, and lead the country to parliamentary elections again and again. 

The decision on who will be the President in this election will form the backbone of the strategic decision that voters will make for the future of Turkey. 

In these elections, those who want a parliamentary system should somehow elect a President who will approve this change and a majority of MPs in the Parliament at the same time. 

The opposite option, i.e. the election of a President who wants a parliamentary system and the election of MPs who do not want this system to form the Parliament, could also be the outcome of the elections. Or another preference situation, i.e. a President who does not want a parliamentary system but a Parliament and a majority of MPs who want a parliamentary system, can also be realized as another election. 

A President who does not want a parliamentary regime will be able to continue making laws and will be able to instantly dissolve the Parliament and the deputies who constitute it. 

The real change in this election will be the choice of who will be the President. 

The Parliament may change several times with new elections to be held after this election. But the President will be elected only once and this election will be valid for 5 years. This choice will not change until the next presidential election. 

Changing only the Parliament will not bring any result for the society that wants to return to the parliamentary system and wants to change the current Presidential system, if this is really desired. Turkey will be dragged into a new spiral of chaos between the current Presidential system and the parliamentary system that will last for years, and these days, especially in the field of economy, may be sought with a candle. 

If there is a President whose party's MPs do not have the majority, he will be able to continue to rule the country with the presidential system with interim laws until he somehow wants it, that is, until his own party members are elected and gain the upper hand. 

Instead of the Turkey governed by coalitions of the past years, we will see a Turkey that oscillates between a different party President and a parliamentary majority with different views and a government that is unable to form a strong government. 

As a result of the elections, we will be able to experience the coalitions of the past years in a different way, this time with a different party President and a different party parliamentary majority. 

We may see a President or a President who does not have the necessary strong support behind him but has a zero multiplier effect, and a Parliament whose decisions may suddenly be nullified by the President. 

Conclusion

In my opinion, the main priority in these elections will be the decision of the country's electorate on whether to continue with the presidential system or not. 

The parliamentary and parliamentary elections will not have a great significance as they can be dissolved by the President thousands of times according to the laws in force. 

However, if the party of the person elected President also supports him and if he reaches a number of at least 360 or more in the parliament, the changes expressed to the public can be realized quickly. Otherwise, society will continue to harbor additional problems, if any, together with the old ones. 

An election result in which both sides do not share the same thoughts and will (the President and the Parliament, who do not share the same thoughts and beliefs) may do more harm than good to our country. 

Whichever direction the people want to move in, if they elect the President or the President and the Parliament with the same views and ideals, they will bring a strong will to the governance of the country.  In fact, it will prevent another possible chaos. 

The most important priority in this election is the presidential election, not the renewal of the Parliament. 

This election will also be a choice that will bring many changes, including the governance of our country with the parliamentary system, which is our past form of government in which the President only represents the state, or the approval of the presidential system and the continuation of the positive and negative aspects of this system. 

Knowing the general strategy on this issue will make it easier to make decisions on the relevant issue and to achieve the desired goals for the country. 

This study has been prepared for this purpose and has been written to provide a realistic strategic analysis of the current Constitution, laws and possible choices.