What's Happening in Pakistan?

Distrust Grows in Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan:

Pakistan is located in Central Asia as a large country with a population of 220 million and nuclear power. Pakistan became a country founded by the Muslim population that broke away from India in 1947 during the process of India's independence from the British. Later, with Bangladesh's separation from Pakistan, the State of Pakistan, which has been ruling on its current borders, comes to the fore with the border problems with India and especially with the armed conflicts between the two countries in Kashmir.

Pakistan has nowadays found itself in a political turmoil. For the first time on March 8, 2022, the opposition in the country took action to overthrow Khan, the head of the current coalition government. Opponents demanded a vote of confidence against Khan, and gave a no-confidence question for this. This no-confidence question, on the other hand, brought about changes and ruptures in Pakistan's domestic politics.

Who is Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan?

Imran Ahmed Khan is a former cricketer and most recently a Pakistani politician. He served as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan from 2018-2022.

Imran Khan was born in Lahore in 1952 to a Pashtun family. He graduated from Keble College in England in 1975. Imran Khan, who became famous in his country and around the world as a professional cricketer between 1971-1992, served as the captain of the national team in 1992 when Pakistan's national team won the World Cricket Cup and played a major role in this historical success.

Imran Khan Enters Commercial Life and Politics in Pakistan:

Imran Khan, who is seen as a national hero in his country for this reason, stopped playing cricket in 1992. After leaving sports, Han started commercial life with cancer hospitals he opened in Lahore and Peshawar. Meanwhile, he entered the world of education and established Namal College in Mianwali.

He founded a political party called Tehreek-e Insaf (PTI) in 1996 and succeeded to take part in the National Assembly representing Mianwali in 2002. Imran Khan's party PTI, which boycotted the 2008 elections, took its place in the Parliament as Pakistan's second largest party in the next election. His nationwide reputation in the cricket world and his promises to fight corruption have increased the popularity of Imran Khan in the eyes of the Pakistani people.

Han Followed a Populist Policy:

Acting with a populist approach in politics, Imran Khan emerged as the winner of the 2018 elections and a coalition government was formed under the leadership of PTI with the independents in the parliament. Thus, Imran Khan began to serve as the Prime Minister of Pakistan.

Imran Khan, who overcame Pakistan's financial crisis with the bailout package provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), cut the country's defense expenditures in order to get out of the crisis. Imran Khan was criticized by the Pakistan Army for reducing his defense expenditures despite the army. It has been observed that this restriction in defense expenditures in Pakistan, which traditionally sees security policies above everything else, slightly improved the economic growth in the country.

Meanwhile, Imran Khan, who aimed to bring discipline to the country's finances, followed a policy that increased tax collection and investments. It has also launched a Pakistan-wide anti-corruption campaign. He made a series of reforms in social security policies. Imran Khan Government, which deals with environmental problems throughout Pakistan, also pioneered afforestation activities.

Imran Khan's Foreign Policy Line:

In foreign policy, Imran Khan preferred to manage the traditional border problems with India peacefully and not to cause any tension between the two countries, and took his place among the parties supporting the peace process in Afghanistan.

During the Imran Khan period, relations with China and Russia were especially positive, but this situation negatively affected the USA-Pakistan relationship.

Pakistan's Imran Khan Unwanted 'Prime Minister':

Despite the positive steps taken to improve the economy, it has not been possible to achieve the desired success. For this reason, during the reign of Imran Khan, who had difficulties in achieving success at home, despite all efforts, the economy gradually deteriorated and the people tended to polarize politically.

In a sense, Imran Khan, who has become a Prime Minister that the USA "does not want"; It has started to be shown as the main responsible for the bad situation in Pakistan by the opposition and the army. The economic problems, which became chronic even before Imran Khan, have become an almost insoluble problem without realizing a major structural improvement in the economic life of the country and without structural reforms. Khan, who came with the promise of change, could not bring Pakistan to the level and could not meet the expectations of the people. For this reason, his famous charisma was eroded and the influence of the coalition government he was the prime minister of decreased.

Efforts to Preserve Imran Khan's Power in Pakistan:

Prime Minister Han took a tough stance in order to protect his power against the opposition that was overloaded on him, and he began to be seen as responsible for the insufficient functioning of parliamentary democracy. Continuing his popularity, especially among the youth, due to his 'anti-American policies', Han found the solution to populist policies, which he knew very well, and did not fall behind.

Support for the Coalition Begins to Deteriorate:

Balochistan Commons Party, which supports the Imran Khan Coalition Government, announced that it withdrew from the Government towards the end of March, claiming that they were not given a strong enough representation in the Government.

Thus, Imran Khan, who started to lose power, increased his search to protect his government. In the meantime, Imran Khan, who realized that a no-confidence question would be given in the Parliament and that his government would be overthrown by using the vote to be held as an excuse, sought to dissolve the current parliament in order to get rid of this and to achieve success again in the elections to be held. On the other hand, the claims that the opponents, who also won the support of some of Khan's coalition partners, reached a sufficient number for the vote of no confidence, came to light.

Parliament Dissolving in Pakistan:

Thereupon, after the decision of the deputy speaker of the parliament, who supported Imran Khan, to reject the no-confidence vote, Pakistani President Arif Alvi stepped in at Khan's request.

President of Pakistan, Arif Alvi, dissolved the parliament in the first place and inevitably put the country in the mood for early elections. It has been claimed that Imran Khan was behind the President's decision. As a matter of fact, Imran Khan, speaking in a TV broadcast on the same day, said, "I advised the President to dissolve the parliament. We will stand before the people and hold the elections and let the people decide."

Prime Minister Khan, since he openly criticized the policies pursued by the United States, claimed that this country was collaborating with the opposition to remove him from office, and accused the United States of leading a conspiracy in his country. Prime Minister Imran Khan also accused the opposition of being part of a "foreign conspiracy" to remove him from power. Opposition politicians mocked the allegations. The United States denied this claim.

President Alvi's announcement that he dissolved the parliament on Sunday, April 3, in support of Imran Khan, increased the political tension in Pakistan and caused a major political crisis to erupt on the same day. Shahbaz Sharif, who is said to replace Khan if the vote of no confidence is successful; The words "today will be remembered as a black day in Pakistan's constitutional history" were a political reflection of the anger felt towards the President and Prime Minister, who prevented the opposition from negotiating the no-confidence vote.

Pakistan Supreme Court Steps In:

The Supreme Court of Pakistan, which 'needs' to take these developments into account and convened to discuss this issue on April 4, 2022, said in a statement on Thursday, April 7, that "Such attempts (such as Khan's dissolution of the parliament and the prevention of a no-confidence hearing) are unconstitutional, and Prime Minister Imran He explained that the Khan did not have the authority to do this and therefore canceled his decision to dissolve the parliament.

Thus, the Supreme Court preserved the legitimacy of the Assembly, which Khan did not wish at all, and paved the way for the "dissolved" assembly to hold a no-confidence vote again. Announcing that he would continue the struggle, Han complied with the Court's decision and agreed to have the opposition's no-confidence question given about his government to be discussed in the Parliament. Just before the vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan, National Assembly Speaker Asad Kayser resigned.

Statements and Relationships That Destroyed Khan:

Ironically, the Army, which the opposition in Pakistan has held responsible for the process that brought Imran Khan to power for years, has also lost its trust in the Prime Minister. On the other hand, both the PTI and the Pakistani General Staff denied such allegations.

However, Imran Khan; In the midst of the crisis, close to the start of the war that Russia started on February 24, 2022 against the invasion of Ukraine, he had a tete-a-tete meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin for 3 hours. This meeting was interpreted as a kind of support of the Prime Minister of Pakistan to Russia. The Moscow visit of Imran Khan, who drew his arrows before, was not welcomed by the West, as he had displayed an attitude criticizing the "war on terror" of the United States. According to the BBC's claim, the deteriorated relations between Khan and the Pakistan Army's command, where there is a general opinion that they have close relations with the United States, deteriorated as a result of Khan's anti-Americanism, as reflected in his recent rhetoric.

Conclusion:

There have been two instances in Pakistani political history when the incumbent prime minister was opposed by a vote of no confidence. The first was Benazir Bhutto in 1989 and the second was Şevket Aziz in 2006. Both prime ministers did not lose in the voting, they kept their positions.

In the case of Imran Khan, the fact that the coalition partners who supported the government were also on the opposition front did not give Khan the opportunity to show the success of Bhutto and Aziz.

What Happens Next?

Shahbaz Sharif, who is the leader of the opposition and is said to be under the control of the USA, will probably be tasked with forming the government today or tomorrow. According to parliamentary arithmetic, if the dissidents who united to overthrow Imran Khan support the premiership of Shahbaz Sharif, Pakistan will settle down for a while. If not, a new election is on the horizon. The new Prime Minister Shahbaz, who is the brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, thinks that relations with the United States are critical for Pakistan. Contrary to Imran Khan, it is stated that Şehbaz, who is claimed to be on good terms with the Army, may be preferred more than Imran in relations with the West.

Meanwhile, rumors have become widespread that it is only a matter of time before steps are taken to arrest Imran Khan in Pakistan.