Which Direction is the AK Party Heading to?

Hound the hound, run for the hare, isn't that a nice point of view?

You are the ruling party and you need votes. What would you do?

For example, would you support a party like Hüdapar?

But it is a state project! The state prefers Kurdish voters in the South East to vote for a party with Islamic roots rather than a radical party like HDP.

I wonder if this is the reason? 

Could this already be a state project?

Or is it a method of the ruling party to divide the Kurdish vote?

Or could there be another reason?

Yes, if the aim is to bring a group like the IYI Party into your ranks, why not?

Okay, the elections are over and I won again!

Could it be that the AK Party wants to say that if you don't want me to drag this country into the dark future you don't want, come and support me?

But I don't think the IYI Party will play this game. 

The AK Party is already very uncomfortable with being under the MHP's guidance for so long.

It probably does not want to have a more nationalist perspective by adding the IYI Party to its side.

Moreover, with the current parliamentary arithmetic, there are many different alternatives.

I don't understand, what are these different alternatives?

I am talking about some conservative parties that were able to enter the parliament with CHP lists!

If we go only on the basis of the parliamentary arithmetic, why not?

Couldn't the AK Party be trying to bring all conservative parties together?

In its current form, the Ak Parti, which includes Hüdapar, already holds the majority in the parliament with 268 deputies, the Re-Refah Party with 5 deputies, the MHP with 50 deputies and 322 deputies when we deduct the parliamentary speaker from the calculation.

However, if we take into account other conservative parties, DEVA, FUTURE and SAADET Party, which managed to enter the parliament from CHP lists, have a total of 34 deputies, 15+10+9, and if they can attract these parties instead of MHP, the conservative votes alone amount to 306 (again excluding the speaker of the parliament!). 

In other words, the AK Party can secure a parliamentary majority in any case with only conservative MPs.

In other words, it seems that if the Ak Parti wanted to, it could obtain the authority to pass any law it wants in parliament with only conservative votes without needing the MHP.

And in this case, if the AKP wants to steer the country towards a religious Turkey, it can achieve a parliamentary arithmetic that can do this with a little work.

This is not going to happen!

Yes, I don't want such a thing to happen either, but this is politics after all, and unfortunately we don't have a parliamentary structure with clear lines.

Even those who say that you can't milk the goat when it comes to interests, even though they said unspeakable things to Mr. Erdoğan at the time, they knew how to stand by him afterwards.

So where did this analysis come from now, you may say. 

It is not me who wants to get rid of the MHP, it is the AK Party itself. 

Even if not all of them are of this view, at least there are some within the AK Party who have started to voice this view.

It has already been reported in the press that some opposition MPs who are close to them are being asked to be closely monitored just for this purpose.

Of course, for the time being, the issue is being discussed in terms of close monitoring of MPs in order to find the number 360 in a possible constitutional amendment.

However, on the other hand, the discomfort of being dependent on the MHP is also being voiced in the name of backstage information.

In this case, is it not clear to you that the main goal is to reach a majority consisting only of conservative MPs?

For this purpose, even within the MHP and the IYI Party, conservative MPs can be closely monitored.

The aim is to push the possible number of 306 much higher.

On top of that, if the number 360 is reached only with conservative MPs, it means that the way will be paved for the constitution to be amended through a referendum.

But will this happen?

It is not possible for me to know, but I can already say that I would not be surprised if such a thing happens.

After all, some people say what they said yesterday and what they say today. 

Politics has no backbone, at least I can say that some politicians lack a backbone.

Power is like a light in the darkness, and around the light the moths are circling.

***

So let's say the AK Party achieves the kind of majority it wants, what happens then?

In this case, apart from the conservatives, the remaining MHP, IYI Party, CHP and formerly HDP MPs will remain in the opposition.

In this scenario, I assume that the MHP is excluded by the government.

Of course, there is also the TİP, which has 4 MPs in total, one of whom is in prison.

Is it possible for the MHP and the IYI Party to unite if they are both opposition parties to the government?

As long as Mr. Bahçeli, God willing, is at the helm of the MHP, it seems very difficult for such a scenario to take place.

But let's say this scenario is realized, even if it is difficult.

***

In this case, the parliament will be divided into four main currents.

* The conservative wing led by the ruling Ak Parti, 

* CHP in the main opposition, 

* Now I think it's a nationalist wing under the MHP's guidance 

* And their new name is YSP or I think they don't like this name, if they change it, let's call it a Kurdish nationalist wing.

***

We are back to the four main currents of the last days of the Ottoman Empire!

Islamists, Turkish nationalists, Westernists and Kurdish nationalists.

The only difference is that today, the Ottomanism view has disappeared, or has diminished to the point where it is no longer heard.

In its place, there is a fourth current, the Kurdish nationalists, whose voices are much more audible in today's Turkey, although they were very weak in the Ottoman Empire.

In other words, the three main currents remain as they were, and the conservative wing is now much more dominant.

***

Let's talk about what the coming days hold in this situation.

What has the AK Party failed to achieve despite being in power for 21 years?

And does it have the ability to do what it has failed to do in these five years?

The morale of the westerners, or as they are now called, those in favor of a modern Turkey, seems to have suffered considerably with these recent elections.

The biggest problem is that they have started to leave the country with the advantage of being relatively better off economically.

It is no secret that these educated, mostly white-collar, cadres, especially doctors and engineers, are looking for jobs abroad as much as they can.

We know that there are also many young people who are eager to go abroad.

Can you imagine what kind of a change this would cause in our demographics?

Moreover, those who leave are replaced by refugees, mainly from Syria, Afghanistan and Africa, as well as a large number of Arab rich people.

I don't know what the exact situation is at the moment, but the fact that there are modern supporters of Turkey who are migrating out of the country rather than standing up to the conservatives could really cause the next elections to be much more dominated by the conservative view.

The same demoralization is already observed among nationalists, especially among urban nationalists.

Most of them will try to resist the pressure of the government by saying that this is our country, but God knows how much these efforts will be enough.

The situation is very different for Kurdish nationalists. 

Let's not forget that among them there are also many who hold separatist views. 

Especially with the provocation of foreign powers, this group may sharpen their views even more. 

OK, the state will not let those who hold these views be deterred by security policies. 

Nevertheless, it seems to me that it will not be possible to end terrorism even in this period.

***

In the end, if this scenario plays out, the Ak Parti will definitely seize cultural power at this stage, as it has said that we have been in power but not cultural power.

Because both the white-collar workers who object to this extreme religious culture will have left the country, and those who find the opportunity among the young people, many of whom identify themselves as deists, will have already gone abroad.

As for those who remain in the country, especially when their children are raised in an Islamic culture at a young age, well, the Ak Parti will have finally achieved its long dream of a conservative life. 

I don't know about the vindictive ones, but they will have finally raised the pious generation they have been talking about.

***

And is that a bad thing?

Would it be bad?

After all, if this is the choice of the people, is it appropriate for me to say anything?

When you are in power, you don't do anything for the sake of evil.

You do everything you do because you think it is right.

Actually, I am no different. I mean, I also think that what I think is right. I think everyone is like me.

The only difference between those in power and me, or those who think like me, is that they are in power. 

So they have the power to do what they think is right.

So what will become of the AK Party in the future?

Again, God forbid, but we call it a one-man regime, if God forbid something happens to Mr. Erdoğan, will there be no Ak Parti left?

I don't know, for now it looks like it will be in power for a while.

There is no end to solutions in politics. 

Or was the original saying that there is no exhaustion of remedies in democracy?

Speaking of democracy, I hope the tram stop is not far away. 

If the stop is nearby, look, there might actually be people getting off at this stop. 

I am sorry, but I think this parliamentary arithmetic shows that it is time for those who want to get off to get off.

I hope there is no one who wants to get off at this stop.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow