Why can't Erdoğan be overthrown?

Erdoğan is the Rightful Winner of May 28th 

On May 28th, the second round of the two-candidate presidential election, which was a continuation of the election held on May 14th, was finally over and our country started to breathe again, albeit not very comfortably. The will of the nation was registered in the ballot box in one way or another in favor of Erdoğan with around 52% of the vote. The other candidate, Kılıçdaroğlu, who received 48% of the vote, lost by a small margin. 

From time to time, there were debates about the fairness of the elections, and even about whether there really was an election at all. After 21 years in power, Erdoğan's government, which has become a 'state' in every aspect, was even alleged to have manipulated the votes reflecting the voters' preferences on May 14 in some ballot boxes. Wet-signed minutes were widely shared, especially on social media, as evidence for these allegations. Platforms such as Oy ve Ötesi (Vote and Beyond) have been widely used to ensure that the votes cast by the public are reflected in the election results as accurately as possible and to protect the ballot boxes through party representatives and observers. On May 28th, it was pleasing to see that there was little talk of any manipulation to cast a shadow over the elections. Therefore, the Erdoğan regime found its legitimacy in the ballot box and was given the right by the people to rule the country for another five years. 

Erdoğan deserves to be a prominent leader in Turkish history

If he lives long enough, Erdoğan will take his place among the few sultans and sultans in Turkish history who have remained in power for 26 years without interruption. He was able to do this by holding the titles of prime minister and president, but in any case as the real holder of power. Moreover, unlike the Turkish states of the past, he was able to do this in a democratic environment and through elections. Having won all the elections he has contested, I consider Erdoğan's long uninterrupted rule as a great achievement that will be recorded in history and I humbly congratulate him.

In the meantime, I find it important that the ballot box continues to be the source of legitimacy in our country. In the last election, an opposition bloc formed around Kılıçdaroğlu as the Millet Alliance and fought for power against the People's Alliance formed by Erdoğan. Yesterday, many columnists wrote about the mistakes of the opposition bloc around the name Kılıçdaroğlu, with justified and unjustified accusations. This issue has been discussed on television and it looks like it will continue to be discussed. 

However, the following should not be forgotten: Unlike in previous elections, Kılıçdaroğlu fought this last election with sincerity, wisely kept six disparate party leaders around a table of six, and even managed to walk with all of them together without any casualties, despite Akşener's slightly disgruntled behavior and her leaving the table on a Friday evening. I believe he showed sincere and exemplary leadership. In Turkish politics, I consider Kılıçdaroğlu to be a very honest politician, devoted to his people, humble enough to share his kitchen, unpretentious and honorable. But I should also note that I am an old enough mortal to realize that these high human qualities are often not valid in the political arena. 

Could another leader, for example Mansur Yavaş or Ekrem İmamoğlu, have won this election against Erdoğan? I can't say that I share Hulki Cevizoğlu's irresponsible outburst, "If the Prophet could have come, he couldn't have won against Erdoğan!", but it is a fact that even if Yavaş or İmamoğlu had come, it would not have been "guaranteed" to win against Erdoğan, who always had the initiative in his hands under the current conditions. Nevertheless, it is not possible for us to know this today, to claim that 'they would have won' because it has not been tried.

Erdoğan used his weapons well: Defense Industry and Kandil Rhetoric

Erdoğan acted with the entire state bureaucracy alongside the political bureaucracy. He went to the elections by taking the state power with him. As a political leader who can use all the state's resources, including the treasury, to win elections without question, and who can act with the support of almost all the media power in the country, Erdoğan did not appear before the people as a simple party leader like Kılıçdaroğlu. He appeared as both President and Party Chairman. He did not hesitate to use all kinds of ceremonies for political propaganda. Some of his political statements, even as party leader, were applauded by the majority of the state bureaucracy, including the commanders of the Armed Forces, who are supposed to be politically neutral, or they wanted to be on the applauding side. 

Moreover, Erdoğan had the right to announce when he would start the election race even before it started. On March 10, the elections, which were supposed to be held on June 18, were moved to May 14, solely at the will of the President. The opposition accepted this controversial decision 'with a smile'. It was left to those outside politics to question this decision. 

According to some who claim to know Erdoğan very well, "Erdoğan does not enter an election that he is going to lose!" Indeed, it was as they said, Erdoğan won the last election easily with "Mr. Kemâl, Defense Industry Exhibitions and Kandil Rhetoric".

Kılıçdaroğlu Failed to Overcome the Kandil Rhetoric

Kılıçdaroğlu, who desperately needs HDP votes to succeed against Erdoğan in the elections, could not develop an alternative to the Kandil rhetoric, which Erdoğan skillfully put forward on the security axis. Partly because he lacked the support of the mainstream media, we can say that he could not express himself sufficiently. But this 'incompetence' was the biggest factor that cost him the election. In fact, despite Bahçeli's ridiculed 'conili, keklikli' expressions and out-of-context political discourses, the MHP, the second largest partner of the People's Alliance, increased its votes (Akşener's vote loss to Bahçeli notwithstanding). 

Moreover, in the face of Erdoğan, who skillfully exaggerated the development in the defense industry and military products and platforms, most of which were still at the prototype stage, and who showed the ability to present them to the public with great 'boasting' in a way to flatter the public, the representatives of the Millet Alliance, although not Kılıçdaroğlu, were weak. His uninformed, clumsy and unwarranted outbursts did more harm than good to the Alliance. "Kılıçdaroğlu, a so-called PKK collaborator who denigrates defense products" was skillfully presented by Erdoğan as a threat to the security concerns of the public. In this way, Erdoğan easily put his rival Kılıçdaroğlu offside, using the security card to outmaneuver Kılıçdaroğlu, who, according to the polling firms, appeared to be behind. Meanwhile, even Erdoğan's confession of the editing, which was a gaffe, failed to restore the erosion of public trust in Kılıçdaroğlu. 

After all, having seen how Hungary's autocratic leader, current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, head of the far-right Fidesz party, declared his victory on the night of April 3, 2022, based solely on "security" rhetoric, Erdoğan was able to declare his own victory on the evening of May 28 by emphasizing similar rhetoric.

Is Kılıçdaroğlu Quitting? What does Imamoğlu say?

Now Imamoğlu says, "We could not fully establish a mobilization of hearts that would ensure that the greatest desire of the society is reflected in the ballot boxes. We have to rebuild the will for change from scratch. Of course we will face this reality. We will find the reasons and solve them. No one should have any doubts." 

With these words, Imamoğlu, who is claimed to have started the race to grab the seat of Kılıçdaroğlu, who is almost certain to leave the CHP presidency (although he himself is not very willing), I don't know if he can rebuild the will for change if he becomes president, but I can already see, like many of you, that as long as the support of the nationalist structure ossified in the person of Bahçeli for Erdoğan continues, Imamoğlu's job will be very difficult.

Politics and Ideologies Have Changed in Turkey

We also need to see the following. Turkey's political sociology has changed. It can even be said that it has disappeared. In our youth, labor was organized. There was a labor consciousness, a working class organization. Unlike the right-wing parties, the CHP was very much supported by the poor and laboring segments of society, and Blackbird Ecevit was seen as a hope for these segments. Ecevit, the leader of the party, was young. He was a leader who had overthrown even İnönü and was seen as a pioneer of change. Entering the 1977 elections, he said, "We have written nationalism not on the walls of the streets, but on the soil of Cyprus and the sea beds of the Aegean. We have written nationalism on the poppy fields of Western Anatolia." He was a confident leader who broke a record with almost 42% of the vote and won the favor of the majority of the Turkish people. 

Nowadays, the organized structure of labor has lost its validity under Turkish conditions. The impact of the neoliberal policies that began in the 1980s has made almost all labor organizations around the world symbolic. The Turkish working class has also had its share of this. Therefore, in this respect, the CHP has gradually moved away from a political organization that could be the primary choice of working people. According to some, today's CHP is nothing but a party preferred by the highly educated and high income class. The poor and workers, on the other hand, became conservative at the hands of the communities. They distanced themselves from the CHP. The classical class consciousness of the workers was virtually destroyed. 

So much so that after the May 28 elections, as Memduh Bayraktaroğlu put it, "When Erdoğan won, Baghdad Street in Istanbul, where the richest people of the country live, fell silent, while the poor residents of Sultanbeyli, who could not find onions, set off fireworks." Indeed, according to the results of May 28, Kılıçdaroğlu received 53.7% of the votes in Turkey's top five cities, while Erdoğan only managed 46.3%. In other words, the majority of our people supported Kılıçdaroğlu in the big cities and Erdoğan in the small cities, suburbs and rural areas. Whereas the suburbs were known as the strongholds of leftist parties, in the Turkish context they have become the stronghold of the AKP.

Reis Love, Criticism of the Tayyipist Mentality

Turkey's economic indicators are still out of order. Going into the elections, even the government could not claim that the wheels of the economy were turning properly. The wounds of the February 6 earthquake had not yet fully healed. Despite this, there were no voices from Turkey's labor and capital sectors in favor or against the candidates running in the election. 

Moreover, ideologies did not speak in this election race. It was as if the Right and the Left were mixed. While the Nation's Alliance acted together with the right-wing parties under the leadership of the CHP, the People's Alliance, in addition to the DSP, Ecevit's party, included the old Maoist Perinçek team, old hard-line Kemalists like Cevizoğlu, and even took HÜDAPAR, which was identified with Hezbollah, into its ranks. In reality, none of this mattered. In the past, the Turkish people used to vote according to promises and ideologies. Now there is an understanding of party loyalty that is almost like supporting a football team. Votes are cast accordingly. In particular, the "Reis Love", which has now become a phenomenon, has continued to determine the main axis of the votes.

In connection with this issue, the following tweet caught my eye on social media. "Do you know why Erdoğan won? If you ask my neighbors in my apartment building in Bodrum, they all say they are in favor of democracy and the rule of law. One of my neighbors who says 'I am an old leftist' cut down a beautiful tree because it was blocking his view. An Ataturkist doctor neighbor of mine tried to cut down a public olive tree outside the complex for the same reason... Whatever you complain about in this country, you are part of it. Most of you carry little 'Tayyips' inside you. You insult your wife, you criticize plunder and then build a floor on your house with zoning amnesties, you don't give your employees their rights, you don't respect other people's opinions, you don't give animals a bowl of water, the examples can be multiplied. In short, you are not even aware that you carry the mentality you criticize. It is this hypocrisy that disgusts me the most. And of course those you keep silent and those you fear. If you don't change, Erdoğan will win again. His name may change, but Turkey cannot win unless you change."

I find these statements full of reproaches meaningful. The famous saying, "you are governed as you are!" seems to be very valid for the human structure of our country. 

If the opposition cannot even win this election, I wonder which election will they win?

Erdoğan looked tired and exhausted in every way. It was as if he was reluctantly entering an election for the sake of it. Now, Kılıçdaroğlu is rightly being asked, "If you cannot win this election, which election will you win?" Indeed, an opposition that cannot win an election despite the deteriorating economy and the problems experienced in the earthquake, while the aftershocks of the pandemic continue, deserves to be questioned. 

In November 2002, the AKP, or AK Party, came to power as a party that was able to show that it had an ambition in the elections it eventually won, that its thirst for power was never-ending and that it could always claim to respond to the people's desire for change. Under Erdoğan's assertive personality, this party has been able to successfully demonstrate this and somehow continue to win the support of the public. I find it particularly important that the AK Party's belief in winning elections and its ability to wrap this belief in a passion. For example, entering the last election with the discourse of "Turkey's Century" should be read in this way. I also find it valuable in terms of political science to have a party and leadership understanding that can create the perception that "If Erdoğan fixes this, Erdoğan will fix it again!" even the things that the AK Party has broken.

In my opinion, political parties are living organisms. In a way, they are organizations that are a reflection of human nature. Passion is like a fuel that gives meaning to our lives. A political life without passion is to be condemned to mere existence. It is as if Kılıçdaroğlu has no passion for power (save for the last election). Erdoğan, on the other hand, does not hesitate to emphasize that he was born for power and power. He allows his passion to captivate him, those around him and the majority of the people. He shares his dreams and creates an air that he will run to realize them. Even if many of these dreams are 'lies', he displays a demeanor and leadership as if he believes in them, and establishes himself as the Chief. This political charisma may or may not have been built when he was the Mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, but even if it was not, this charisma became generally accepted in the first years of his rule from 2002 onwards. He successfully used the wind blowing from all directions to "Build the Erdoğan Charisma". This course of action gave him a unique position. He not only formed governments, but also continued to govern the country as a strong President with the oligarchic order he built around him, becoming a powerful leader. This lust for power has become Erdoğan's political character, the only lifeblood of all those who benefit from the blessings of power he offers. 

As Atatürk said, "Victory belongs to those who can say victory is mine!" Despite his advancing age, his apparent fatigue and illness, Erdoğan continues to attract the people of this country like a magnet with his passion and belief in power. Despite the declining AKP votes, he knows how to increase the number of his supporters. So much so that he is able to attract even his opponents, especially Bahçeli, Perinçek, Soylu, Destici, Erbakan, Cevizoğlu and Oğan. Even though he turns them into political 'renegades', they are not at all bothered by this. New ones are expected to join these buttresses who are more Erdoganist than Erdoğan, more royalist than the king. If there is even talk that İlker Başbuğ, one of the former Chiefs of General Staff who was imprisoned during Erdoğan's rule, may become the Minister of Defense in Erdoğan's new cabinet, you can imagine the rest...

Conclusion

I believe that any young leader of the opposition, if he or she wants to develop a strategy to deal with Erdoğan, should start his or her political struggle by first learning about this "buttress politics". Even if the AKP's share of the vote falls to 25%, I believe that Erdoğan and even the new leader, if he replaces him, will continue to keep the oligarchic structure integrated with the AKP in power. This is what the political trajectory tells us.