Would Kara-Kalpak Protests Bring Democracy to Uzbekistan?

Political Outlook of Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is among the key countries of Central Asia with its population of nearly 33 million, geostrategic location, deep-rooted history, rich cultural values ​​and economic potential. Within the borders of this country, there are historical cities such as Samarkand, Bukhara and Khiva that were the cradle of many Turkish-Islamic civilizations.

Uzbekistan is governed by a presidential system, with the understanding of unity of forces (executive, legislative and judiciary are monopolized by the president). From 1991, when Uzbekistan gained its independence from the Soviets, until 2016, Islam Karimov ruled the country as a single man, with an almost North Korean-style approach, as the President. Following the death of Islam Karimov on September 2, 2016, Şevket Mirziyoyev, who received 88.6% of the votes in the election held on December 4, 2016, became the new President. Uzbekistan, whose relations with Turkey improved with Mirziyoyev, became a member of the Turkic Council on 14 September 2019.

Economic Life:

Uzbekistan is a country that has made progress in the field of automotive, mining and agriculture. Among the main export items are automotive, natural gas, copper, zinc, gold, radioactive elements, cotton and fresh fruit. It conducts its main commercial relations with China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey and South Korea. Import items include automotive components, pharmaceuticals, petroleum oils and wood products.

Foreign trade between Turkey and Uzbekistan has shown a rapid development trend in every field, especially after President Mirziyoyev took office. The number of companies with Turkish capital in Uzbekistan is over a thousand. Turkish companies operate in the banking, pharmaceutical, construction, automotive, shoemaking, tourism and food sectors. The total contracting work undertaken by Turkish companies in Uzbekistan has reached a size of around 2.7 billion USD.

Kara-Kalpaks:

Kara-Kalpaks, one of the ethnic groups in Uzbekistan, are a tribe of Kazakh Turks, according to some historians. According to the prevailing opinion, 9-13. It is known that the Black-Kalpaks, who were known to have been border guards in the Kyiv Kinesis between the centuries, were a mixture of Pecheneg-Uz-Berendi (Berendy was actually a branch of Pechenegs). It is understood that these people later settled at the mouth of the Ceyhun river and formed the present Kara-Kalpaks.

Kara-Kalpak is included in the Kipchak group. It is also a language close to Kazakh and Nogai. Kara-Kalpaks used the Arabic alphabet first, the Latin alphabet between 1928-1940, and then the Cyrillic alphabet in the written language.

Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan:

Karakalpakya, or officially Karakalpakistan, is an autonomous republic affiliated to Uzbekistan and located in the western part of this country. Its capital is the city of Nukus with a population of about 320,000. The population of the country is around 1,800,000. 500 thousand of this population is Karakalpak, 400 thousand is Uzbek, 300 thousand is Kazakh and one hundred thousand is different elements.

While Karakalpakstan was an autonomous region of the Kazakh Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic in the mid-1920s, it was transferred to the USSR on 20 July 1930. It gained the status of Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic on March 20, 1932. In December 1936, it became a part of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic. While the Republic of Karakalpakstan was a republic with its own sovereignty and its own constitution, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was connected to the Republic of Uzbekistan under the status of the "Republic of Karakalpakistan". It currently maintains the status of an autonomous republic with its own state symbol, constitution, government and parliament. According to the Constitution of Uzbekistan, Karakalpakstan has the right to leave Uzbekistan at will.

Importance of Karakalpakstan for Uzbekistan:

The natural resource reserves in the Karakalpakstan region are of great importance for Uzbekistan, rather than its low population density and its vast terrain, which is now considered a desert. In addition, the natural gas pipeline passing through the territory of Karakalpakstan functions as the lifeblood of the economy of Uzbekistan. Although the Karakalpaks have the constitutional right to secede, the Uzbek government aimed to fully integrate this region and its people into Uzbekistan and to eliminate the threat of secession.

Outbreak of Events in Karakalpakstan:

The central government of Uzbekistan has put on its agenda a draft law that deprives the Karakalpaks of their constitutional right to secede in order to prevent activities that may cause the Karakalpaks to engage in a possible separatist movement and, as a result, to lose this region.

The protest actions initiated by the Karakalpaks in Nukus on July 1, 2022, who were disturbed by the fact that this draft law was brought to the agenda, suddenly spread all over Karakalpakistan. In the clashes between the security forces of the Uzbek government and the protesters in Nukus, 18 people were killed and 243 people were injured. Government forces detained more than five hundred protesters. It is claimed that the actual figures are larger than these official figures.

As a result, President Mirziyoyev, who had to come to the city of Nukus, which was the capital of the region and the center of the protests, on July 2 without delay; He had to explain that it was decided not to amend the constitution and that "order was restored".

Do the Protests in Karakalpakstan Matter?

For many, the events in Karakalpakstan are nothing more than a bloody, albeit bloody, tumult in a remote and seemingly insignificant corner of the world. However, the effects of the picture, which emerged as a result of the policy of violent repression against the protesters in this autonomous republic, may not be just local. In the context of the Mirziyoyev administration, there may be a turning point with regional implications.

Uzbekistan is the breadbasket of Central Asia. This country, where approximately 35 million people live, is home to a population that is almost as large as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan combined. Uzbekistan is also an important crossroads where Russia, the Western World and China's visions of Central Asia or Turkistan intersect.

Mirziyoyev is a highly experienced politician who served as the prime minister of Karimov for 13 years. In the first years he came to power after Karimov, he focused on reforms and modernization in Uzbekistan in order to eliminate the discontent among the people and to realize the development of his country. He introduced radical changes in the country's administration that brought the parliament to the fore instead of the "one man". He saved the country from the shadow of the National Intelligence Agency (MXX) on politics and bureaucracy. He undertook important reforms, including ending forced child labor in cotton fields and opening the country to international capital markets. He made a number of innovations in the field of economy. Influenced by this change, the Economist magazine deemed Uzbekistan worthy of being the "country of the year" in 2019. As a result of this, foreign direct investment in the country increased by 266% that year.

However, when the “reformist” president came in 2021, he preferred to return to the line of his predecessor Karimov and suspended the reforms in the field of administration that he had voluntarily initiated. He also had the chance to clinch his "one-man" with a somewhat figurative or symbolic election held in October the same year.

After that, Mirziyoyev, who decided to overhaul the constitution; it appears that he intended to extend his mandate, effectively extending the limits of his powers and further consolidating his power. Indeed, his regime's violent suppression of protests in Karakalpakstan has strengthened suspicions that the constitutional reform agenda in the country is nothing more than appearances.

Will the Karakalpakstan Protests Have Effects on the Uzbekistan Government System?

In recent years, Uzbekistan has made an effort to follow a cautious policy against the increasing Russian influence. As an alternative to increasing Russian pressure, it preferred to be included in the Eurasian Economic Union in 2020 as an observer. The Kremlin, who does not want to accept this partial break movement; There are evaluations that he tried to draw the Mirzoyoyev regime into his line by provoking the Karakalpaks (similar to the Georgian Ossetians and Abkhaz).

Meanwhile, it is unthinkable for Russia to ignore China's increasing commercial influence over Uzbekistan. Beijing has become Tashkent's largest trading partner since 2016. The Western world, on the other hand, is not yet willing to enter Uzbekistan enough to invest. On the other hand, as a result of the sanctions imposed against Russia, the delivery of Uzbek gas to Europe has recently taken its place on the agenda.

With a pragmatic approach, Mirzoyoyev quickly abandoned the constitutional reform proposals that fueled the unrest and signaled that he could follow the reformist line of 2016. However, the public has not yet reassured him. In fact, the key factor that will determine the path the Uzbek leader will follow in the coming days seems to develop in proportion to the reactions of the international community in the context of Karakalpakstan. Accordingly, it will shape the balance of power in the heart of Eurasia. In the Western world, getting Mirziyoyev back on the path of reform and progress may also become an important priority for the Biden administration, which emphasizes democratic governments. In fact, support can be given to an Uzbek politician who is closer to working with the West instead of Mirziyoyev. Such a change may lead to a mobilization for the coming to power of democratic governments in Central Asia. The opposite situation may encourage a shift towards autocratic management approaches.

Perhaps, for such a change, the Washington administration encouraged the Black-Hearts in Uzbekistan to a symbolic protest action?

References:

Bakhadirkaramatdinov, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47588585

Türk Dışişleri Bakanlığı Sayfası, Özbekistan’ın Siyasi Görünümü,  https://www.mfa.gov.tr/ozbekistan-siyasi-gorunumu.tr.mfa

Mirovalev M., 4 Temmuz 2022, Reporter’s Notebook: What’s behind Uzbekistan’s deadly unrest? Al Jazeera, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/4/reporters-notebook-whats-behind-uzbekistans-deadly-unrest

Hess M. “Why the world should pay attention to unrest in Karakalpakstan”, Al Jazeera, 7 Temmuz 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/7/7/why-unrest-in-a-remote-region-of-uzbekistan-matters

Kafesoğlu İ. (1989). Türk Milli Kültürü, Boğaziçi Yayınları, 7. Baskı, İstanbul.