Let's Say the Opposition Wins! What Happens?

Let's say elections are held and those who are in opposition today win the elections. 

They reach just under 360 deputies in the parliament. Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu became the President of the Republic, for example.

In this case, it is not possible to change the constitution as they promised before the elections. Let's say that neither the Justice and Development Party nor the Nationalist Movement Party is willing to amend the constitution. Since there are not 360 deputies, it is also not possible to put the amendment request to a referendum.

What should be done in this situation?

Yes, today the office of the president has a great deal of power. This means that the country will be governed by presidential decrees as it is now.

For example, would Kılıçdaroğlu resign from his party immediately after becoming President? 

If he does, who will be the new leader of the Republican People's Party? 

In such a move, Kılıçdaroğlu would probably entrust the party to someone he trusts instead of himself. Is there such a person?

Let's say he trusted someone and handed over the seat. Now, by putting himself in a supra-partisan position, he does not need to intervene in the party and has assumed a completely different role as the president.

Since he had the authority to do so, he appointed Mr. Merak Akşener as the Vice President and de facto left the executive to her. In other words, even though she is not the Prime Minister in name, Ms. Akşener became the de facto Prime Minister as she had promised to the voters for a long time.

Although, when Meral Akşener said that she would be the Prime Minister, she also put forward a condition that the İYİ Party would be the party that received the highest number of votes in the elections. 

If, for example, the AK Party gets the most votes in the elections, how fair will this appointment be? I think this is a conundrum! If the aim is to imitate the parliamentary system, then maybe someone from the AK Party should be appointed as the first deputy. Wouldn't that be funny? 

Especially if the votes of the Republican People's Party are higher than those of the IYI Party, the appointment of Ms. Meral as the first vice president would be a completely wrong appointment. Okay, not from the AK Party, but maybe the first vice president should be someone from the CHP in that case!

This seems to me to be the first problem within the opposition. 

Anyway, I'll let it go for now and move the scenario a bit further.

I assume that Mr. Kemal will act according to the road map that has been worked out and maybe even declared and that he will not deviate from this road map on any issue. Let's assume that he fulfills what he said he would do immediately before the elections with a decree and then leaves things under the control of Ms. Meral.

Normally, Ms. Meral should now determine her cabinet as the de facto prime minister. But in the road map that has already been prepared in advance, it will be determined who will be in what position. Therefore, Ms. Meral will not need to waste time on the cabinet.

If we say that the most important ministries are the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Economy, it would not be difficult to guess that the Ministry of Economy could be run by a committee headed by Mr. Babacan. I think the opposition does not need a more reliable economy minister. Anyway, since they will work as a team, those who are prominent in the field of economy from each party will be in charge of the team.

I think it would make sense for the Ministry of Interior to be run by someone from the Republican People's Party. 

So is there a candidate for this? I cannot think of a prominent ministerial candidate for now. Someone suitable will probably be found within the CHP cadres.

Another important ministry is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Could a team headed by Mr. Davutoğlu, who has previous experience in this field, be considered? 

Maybe, I don't know. 

If the IYI party cadres come out of the elections with a good vote rate, they may not be willing to be represented only by Meral Akşener in the administrative cadres. They may insist that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should also be from the IYI party. But for now, I say Mr. Davutoğlu for this position.

Let's take a look at another ministry. The Ministry of National Defense. Can you think of a candidate? The Republican People's Party will probably insist on its own candidate for this ministry. Although they are not very vocal, they actually have a very suitable candidate. I won't mention his name, but you can probably guess who I am talking about. I don't think anyone will have any objection if the name of the person I guessed comes up.

What is left? Education! Can the CHP leave education policies to the IYI party? Why not? If the Ministry of Justice is left to CHP cadres, I think it can be.

But the leaders of the Felicity Party and the Democratic Party are left. They will also want to take charge in some important ministries. For example, would Mr. Temel Karamollaoğlu be interested in the Ministry of Family? I don't think so, maybe if there is also responsibility for Religious Affairs. Perhaps Mr. Karamollaoğlu may want a different ministry. Maybe, like Mr. Bahçeli, he can keep himself aside and give importance to his cadres gaining a place in the state.

I guess the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry would suit the Democratic Party. Would Mr. Gültekin Uysal be satisfied with this ministry? Maybe, I think it might be enough to have agriculture and animal husbandry policies under the control of the Democratic Party.

The CHP will probably not want to leave the Ministry of Culture to the Good Party. The Ministry of Energy will also be a matter of discussion between them. 

Are there any other important ministries left? 

There used to be a lot of state ministries. The state ministry in charge of this and that, and most of them were in charge of public institutions, SEEs, public banks. Each one of them was in the hands of bad administrators. I hope such a system will not continue.

Look, I forgot the Ministry of Health, that will also be a subject of bargaining between the IYI party and the CHP. The Ministry of Transportation and the Ministry of Public Works are the same. These are also important ministries.

Are there any prominent executives among the opposition parties for all these positions?

There probably are, but the program for each ministry needs to be determined already. It is not an easy task. On the one hand, getting rid of the current administration is the main goal, on the other hand, there is a struggle within the opposition to grab a ministry. 

While it is not even clear yet who will be the presidential candidate, in all this turmoil, it is necessary to determine who will be responsible for what in the event of a government. Deciding what to prioritize as soon as possible once in power. Moreover, considering how much the current administration has destroyed the institutions, reorganizing everything when there are no properly functioning institutions. Not easy!

I wonder what the reaction would be from the current government supporters who have been entrenched in state positions for so many years? Would this be a threat to the way things are run?

And then all the laws that need to be amended! In order to fix all this damage in a short period of time, there is a need for staff who will really work devotedly. 

Separation of powers! If the current constitution cannot be amended, how will the separation of powers be achieved? Will the hand of politics in the judiciary be easily removed? How will the existing cadres be weeded out? How much trouble will the existing cadres in the bureaucracy cause to the proposed changes?

How will parliamentary oversight be ensured without amending the constitution? Will the ministers be submitted to parliament for approval through a presidential decree? 

Kılıçdaroğlu can say, "Am I not the President, I want it this way," and this can be done through a decree. But how will he ensure that the government's actions are monitored?

In the past, there used to be a triple decree, or most decisions were made with the signature of the Council of Ministers, is it possible to do this in the current system? Or is the signature of the president absolutely necessary for a decision to take effect?

The questions are many. It is not easy to fix twenty years of destruction and to systematize it. 

It is already very difficult to get rid of the cost of living and inflation that the country has been dragged into. On top of all the work to be done. It's really not easy. 

So this is not a game. It is not a matter of "try me". It is necessary to determine all these decisions with fine details in advance and appear in front of the society in such a way. This is no small responsibility. 

So let me ask you one more time. When will you announce your program? Who will be your staff? When will your priorities on each issue be determined?

If you are running for office, I think there are not a few people who are curious about the answers to these questions. Keep this in mind and continue your work.

And don't forget that the international conjuncture is constantly changing and very dynamic. This is the kind of work where the house doesn't fit the market. So you have to be prepared for everything. 

The people at the top are trying to overcome this by being iridescent, and they have invented a handle for iridescence, they call it pragmatism, they call it a pragmatic leader and they keep putting it in front of us as if it is a good thing. Actually, I think it's desperation. 

But you have to be prepared for this changing conjuncture. So your job is not easy. 

Nevertheless, you have given us hope that our security will not snow on the mountains. Or let it snow, snow on the mountains is not a bad thing, it melts and becomes a stream, it merges and becomes a river.

But you understand what I am saying. 

We are waiting, we are looking forward to it.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow