Analyzing the Changing Electoral System
There are 3 important issues in the 15-article new election law prepared by the AKP and MHP, partners of the People's Alliance, in March 2022. 1. With the new law, the national threshold in parliamentary elections is reduced from 10 percent to 7 percent. 2. The residual votes of the alliance will no longer have an impact on parliamentary elections. 3. The President is exempted from the propaganda bans during the election period.
On May 14, 2023, we are going to two separate elections.
In the first election;
4 candidates will compete for the presidency and we will choose only one of them. If we choose multiple candidates, our vote will be invalidated. In the first round, the candidate who reaches 50%+1 of the votes will be elected President. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes, the two candidates with the highest number of votes will participate in the second round and the one who receives one vote more than the other will become the 13th President of Turkey.
Let's turn to the second round, the parliamentary election.
There are some differences between the previous parliamentary elections in 2018 and the 2023 elections. We need to vote knowing these differences.
There are 3 important issues in the 15-article new election law prepared by the AKP and MHP, partners of the People's Alliance, in March 2022.
1. With the new law, the national threshold in parliamentary elections is reduced from 10 percent to 7 percent.
2. The residual votes of the alliance will no longer have an impact on parliamentary elections.
3. The President is exempted from the propaganda bans during the election period.
Let us examine them in order.
1. Election threshold
On June 10, 1983, the Parliamentary Election Law set the election threshold at 10 percent. Political parties that could not overcome this threshold could not get a parliamentary seat. With the new law, the nationwide threshold has been reduced to 7 percent. Parties in alliances are not subject to the threshold if their alliance exceeds 7 percent. In this framework, we can say that the parties within the two major alliances, the People's and the Nation alliances, do not have a threshold problem. The Labor and Freedom Alliance, led by the HDP, is also unlikely to face the threshold, according to the polls. The Ata alliance, led by the Zafer Party, will also be able to get parliamentary seats if it passes the 7 percent threshold as an alliance. This makes it more difficult for small parties that are not in any alliance.
2. Change in MP calculation
With the new law, there will be changes in the calculation of parliamentary seats. In the 2018 elections, the total votes of the alliance were first totaled within the alliance and the number of MPs to be elected by the parties in the alliance was determined according to the votes they received within the alliance. In other words, the D'hondt system was first applied to alliances, MPs were distributed to alliances, and then the number of MPs won by the parties in the alliance was determined. In a region where two MPs were to be elected, the third party with the highest number of votes could overtake the second party with the residual votes of the alliance and win a parliamentary seat. In the new system, all parties will be evaluated according to their vote share. The only benefit of alliances is to pass the threshold, so this new situation gives an advantage to smaller parties in the alliance. In addition, parties in alliances will need to assess their positions in strong and weak regions very well before the elections and nominate candidates accordingly. The party that acts strategically and develops and implements smart policies before the elections will gain an advantage.
3. President exemption
The new law exempts the president from election bans. The term "prime minister" in the old law's text has been removed "within the framework of harmonization with the presidential government system" and only ministers and MPs are subject to these election bans. In other words, the president, even though he is also the chairman of a political party, will be able to use official vehicles during his campaign, attend official ceremonies and openings, and give banquets with state facilities. It is obvious that this will lead to unfair competition between candidates before the elections. Since Turkish people are used to such unfair competition throughout the history of democracy, I don't think it will affect our choice much.
One last piece of information: Under the old system, in order to participate in the elections, it was enough to form a group in the Parliament, i.e. a party had to have at least 15 deputies. Therefore, before the general elections in 2018, 15 deputies from the CHP resigned and joined the IYI Party, enabling the party to participate in the elections by forming a group in the Parliament. However, with the new law, forming a group in Parliament is no longer one of the conditions to participate in the elections. Kılıçdaroğlu's game-changing move, which was a political maneuver at the time, is no longer necessary. Political parties must complete provincial organization in at least 41 of 81 provinces and hold a grand congress at least six months before the elections in order to participate in the elections.
This is the information.
What we need to do now is to put our hats in front of us and reach the right decision.
Let's not forget, we will elect both the President who will govern us and our deputies.
We will experience the beauty of democracy. The people will have their say, and in the end, the nation and democracy will win.
May your choice be the right one...
