Buckling effect of a society

Today, I would like to talk about an important influence that extends from civil engineering to social engineering.

We have all seen column-beam systems in construction. In simple terms, the beams transfer the horizontal building loads to the columns, and the columns carry the vertical loads of the building and transfer them to the foundation.

The vertical load carrying capacity of the columns is proportional to the cross-section of the column and the quality of the concrete used. The effect of the rebar used inside is also taken into account in the vertical load bearing, but the rebar is calculated according to the lateral effects caused by horizontal loads such as earthquakes.

However, the load carrying capacity of columns also varies according to another effect that we all know, but are not aware of, and which should be taken into account by engineers. This effect is called buckling in the Turkish literature, but I think the effect I am talking about is actually a bit misdefined. When I say buckling, I understand the torsional movement, that is, you hold a wet towel at both ends and squeeze it by twisting it, that's the torsional movement, or there's burma kadayıf, that's it. So I think buckling should actually be the definition that should be given to this effect. But this effect is called torsion, and the effect I'm going to talk about is called sprain. I don't care about the definitions, even though there are similar words, our subject is load carrying capacity. Torsion has an effect on the load carrying capacity of columns and so does buckling.

But the buckling effect is more dangerous. That's why I want to talk about this effect today.

Yes, buckling, or "buckling" in English, is an effect related to the length of the column.

If two columns of equal cross-section have different lengths, they can carry the same load up to a certain point. However, when the load reaches a certain level, the longer column suddenly buckles and breaks. The shorter one continues to carry the load until the fracture limit of the concrete. 

To better understand this effect, imagine pressing down on a flexible stick. If you press too hard, the stick will bend, if you press a little more, it will break. This is the effect I am talking about.

The danger of this effect is that in long columns, depending on the length, the load limit that can be carried is lower than the load calculated from the concrete quality and cross-section of the column, and when this load is reached, the column suddenly breaks.

I realize that I have been a bit technical so far, but my aim is not to give technical information, engineers already designing take these effects into account.

What I really want to talk about is that similar reactions can be observed in societies.

Most social movements occur similar to the physical structure of this buckling effect. While a society under pressure withstands pressure up to a certain level, when the pressure rises above a certain level, we observe that a social movement suddenly starts in societies and spreads to the society in a very short time and causes large-scale events. The Gezi Park events are an example of this.

Of course, it would not be correct to evaluate this effect only in terms of oppression. Sometimes societies can react in a similar way when they are dissatisfied with something. In the 2002 general elections, when the society left all parties in power and opposition below the threshold, the election resulted in only two parties entering the parliament. In this election, 46.33% of the votes cast were not represented in parliament due to the 10% threshold.

A similar effect can be seen in the case of a candidate for any issue who, when everything is normal, makes a single mistake that causes his popularity to plummet and he is suddenly discredited in the eyes of the public and loses the election, or because of this mistake he can no longer be trusted. We have many examples of this, but I don't want to mention anyone here.

On the positive side, I can say that sometimes, with the same effect, someone who has not achieved success for many years, sometimes becomes popular in front of the public with a single thing and finally achieves success. For example, there are many artists who became famous in this way. We also have a lot of artists whose one song is very popular with the public and whose name is never forgotten.

This effect is such that when that moment comes, no one can stand in front of the reaction of the society.

But that moment doesn't come out of the blue, it is known from the beginning, that level is the limit, just like the last drop that overflows the glass, when the glass is full, that last drop becomes the drop that causes the water to overflow.

Is the glass full in Turkey today? Or does the country still have a long way to go before it reaches that torsion limit?

Economic conditions are especially hard on the low-income earners. Social polarization is also pushing the limits. But the fact that young people have lost their dreams for the future is perhaps the worst.

Yes, I think the glass is almost full. It is enough to have that magic song written for success.

Everyone is waiting for something to fix the situation, waiting quietly. Waiting for the song that will be a hit, waiting for the story that will get us back on track.

Unfortunately, there is no one in the opposition who can offer that hope yet. There is no plan to fix the situation. Even though it is known that the work being done is a cadre work, there is no cadre put forward.

In short, what I mean is that everything depends on that last drop. If that story is not put in front of the society as soon as possible, the society may react in the opposite way like a sprain. Already, polls show that some of the undecided voters have decided to support the government again. If the wave of despair grows, it may not be that difficult for the government to turn the situation back in its favor despite all the pressure.

But if that redemption story is put forward in time, the society may react positively and pave the way for success.

So, as I have been saying for a while, there is not much time. Put your story forward as soon as possible so that we can achieve success.

Love and regards to everyone from Moscow.