Effect of Economy on Upcoming Election

In his speech, Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati announced that inflationary pressure continued due to the rise in commodity prices. The Minister has set the target for inflation to fall to single digits before the 2023 elections. Nabati's description of the election date as a kind of deadline for the fight against inflation brought to my mind the song of Ajda Pekkan.

And then?

If the goal is to reduce inflation to a certain level at a level that will win elections, one has to ask.

Then what?

Will post-election inflation rise or fall? Will the economy get better, what will happen next?

Two important factors came to the fore in this success of the Ak party movement, which took over the power from the beginning of the 2000s and has had the success of bringing it to this day. The first of these is the acceptance and support of the leader of this movement, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in the eyes of the society; The other was that the pragmatist policies that the ruling parties often did to win the next election while they were able, were not carried out during the AK Party period. With the support he received from the public, the leader of the party became the head of not only his party, but also the state and the executive.

Despite being heavily criticized by the opposition, Mr. Erdogan successfully emerged from all elections and referendums until the last local election. According to some, it still retained its power to be the first party in Turkey in the last local elections. In particular, the main reason for the loss of some metropolitan municipalities was the success in determining the Nation Alliance candidates compared to the People's Alliance candidates. The main architect of this success was Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Chairman of the CHP, the leading party of the Nation Alliance, regardless of what anyone says.

Now, 2023, 2053 and 2071 targets are set by the government. The set goal is to win the 2023 election no matter what, and to take pragmatist, palliative and dressing measures against the economic problems the country has faced until then. This shows that the Ak party has made the mistake of right-wing ruling parties such as Adalet, ANAP and DYP in the past. It is not possible to win the election this time with such unsuccessful dressing measures and just by relieving the public a little during the election time. The latest survey results by ORC Research Education and Consultancy show that the vote rate of the government continues to decrease.

It seems that a change in power seems inevitable in Turkey, which will celebrate its 100th anniversary, if a tangible improvement is not achieved in the economy until the next elections, and if there is no one other than the likely candidates to be elected as the Nation Alliance candidate.