How should we read demographics?

Demography is the science of population. It is a combination of the Greek words demos, folk and graphe, writing. It is a science that examines the population of communities around the world, the number of births and deaths, their rates, and dynamic population movements such as migration, aging, participation in education and employment. It is analytical, based on numerical data.

Demographic determinations and values ​​help us in the process of human history. Based on these data, we can make propositions and even scientific projections for the future.

This type of work has been done in the past. Malthus' theory of scarcity, which we all know, is one of them. According to the results of his research, Malthus, a mathematician in the 1800s; He claimed that people in the world would face the danger of famine at the end of the century, based on the fact that the human population would increase much faster than the existing food resources. The parameter he uses is the 16-fold increase in the human population, while food production has increased 5 times. Did Malthus say? It did not happen, because people enriched their food resources, settled in new geographies, mass agricultural production was carried out, and the population growth rate decreased due to wars, diseases and birth control methods. Although it did not come true, the theory, which was put forward with a liberal perspective, was also handled and examined by various macroeconomic models. It even inspired Marx.

Our subject is not Malthus. We will come to a different place. We will try to interpret the population data about our country and produce data. For example, have you ever wondered who is in which group in Turkey, on the basis of population? The population of Turkey is 83 million 614 thousand 362 people at the beginning of 2021. 41 915 985 of the population consists of men and 41 698 377 women. In the current population structure;

There are 12.5 million retirees,

There are 18 million students at pre-school, primary and secondary education levels,

There are 5 million public employees,

There are 12.5 million private sector employees,

The number of people working in agriculture is 5 million,

There are 1.5 million tradesmen,

There are 4 million unemployed,

There are 8 million university students

There are 6 million 0-5 age group children

5 million of our citizens live abroad (only those residing in Turkey are included in the population since there is an address-based population registration system).

Can we draw meaningful conclusions from these numbers?

For example, if a retiree party were established and all retirees voted for that party in the 2023 elections, this party could have a vote rate of 20 percent among a total of 62.5 million voters. It is a serious rate, which means that political parties should be more interested in retirees.

Each employee shares his income with 3 other people, 1 retired and 2 students, who are not actually working except himself.

There are a total of 165,000 doctors in Turkey. 25 thousand of them work as family physicians. The number of patients per family physician is approximately 3400 people.

There are 1 million 125 thousand teachers working under the Ministry of National Education in Turkey. The number of students per teacher is 16. Again, there are 68 500 schools, and each school has about 16 teachers and 260 students.

There are 180 thousand academicians in Turkey, there is 1 academician per 44 university students. There are 19.5 million residences in active use in Turkey. The number of households consists of about 4 people.

According to TUIK data, the annual per capita income in Turkey is approximately 8500 dollars. Its current value is approximately 73 thousand TL. The total number of employees was 24.5 million people. In this case, if each employee earns approximately 220 thousand TL annually, the employees receive an equal share of the national income. In other words, in an equal distribution of income, each employee must earn 18 thousand TL per month.

An interesting data; There are 1 million 400 thousand people over the age of 80 in the country's population of 84 million, so the probability of living over the age of 80 is 1.5 percent.

The median age is the age of the person in the middle when the ages of the people who make up the population, from the newborn baby to the oldest, are ordered from youngest to oldest.

The median age in Turkey, which was 32.4 in 2019, increased to 32.7 in 2020. When analyzed by gender, it was seen that the median age increased from 31.7 to 32.1 in men and from 33.1 to 33.4 in women. In other words, we can say that we have a young population yet, but we are getting older every year.

The average life expectancy in Turkey is about 79 years.

While the population growth rate in Turkey was 13.9 per thousand in 2019, it became 5.5 per thousand in 2020. The proportion of people living in provinces and districts in Turkey, which was 92.8% in 2019, increased to 93% in 2020. On the other hand, the rate of people living in towns and villages decreased from 7.2% to 7%. When we look at these rates, can we say that Turkey is an urbanized society that can use the opportunities offered by the cities? What will be the impact of this urbanization on agricultural production in the future?

There is a classic question, if the population increases like this, when will Turkey's population reach 100 million? According to TUIK projections, Turkey's population will reach 100 million, with an increase of approximately 17 million in 20 years (2040).

There is a hotly debated topic: Refugees. There are different claims about the number of asylum seekers in Turkey, but the official figure of the state According to the figures, this number is approximately 5.5 million people.

Most of the mentioned data are statistical data obtained from TUIK. Some are institutional studies. It is not possible for a state to plan a budget without statistical data. Not only the state but also individuals can base their future plans on statistics. It can examine population trends while making investments and education plans. Statistics are also good data for market research. Statistics guide sectoral strategies. For these reasons, trust in numbers is very important. In particular, TUIK data is in a sense the memory of the state. Today, these data are recorded and updated in digital media. TUIK should be the only institution whose reliability cannot be discussed in the public opinion. Because you can't manage what you can't measure.