Importance of May 28

As it turns out, May 28, 2023 is not only one of the most important election dates in Turkish political history, but also a referendum date. Every vote cast means not only choosing one candidate, but also giving up on the other candidate.

This is an election to be decided based on the rhetoric, actions and political understanding of the candidates, not an election to blindly support or oppose. 

Let us examine the issue a little more.

Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the candidate of the People's Alliance and the current President, seems to have finished the first round ahead. Therefore, he took the initiative and started to make statements to consolidate his supporters as soon as the first round was over. The fact that he made his balcony speech before the presidential election was concluded, simply because he was ahead in the number of parliamentary seats, can be seen as a necessary motivation for this consolidation. Otherwise, the decline in his party's vote share and the fact that the election did not end in the first round is in fact a failure. The May 28 run-off election is a referendum for him, and if he wins, it is obvious that he will steer the direction of this country in the direction he wants and start implementing some of the extreme policies that he has had difficulty in implementing so far. Despite 20 years of failures of the ruling party, if its leader wins another election, Erdogan will remain in power until he leaves of his own accord. In democracies, a maximum of two or three terms of leadership is accepted. This means a maximum of 10-15 years. If Erdogan wins re-election and rules the country for another five years, the perception of Turkey as an authoritarian regime by the western society will be strengthened, political and economic support will diminish, and relations will deteriorate to the point of breaking down. This is the main reason why Erdogan is openly or covertly supported by groups categorized as Eurasianists, which share a common denominator of anti-Western/NATO sentiment. 

Let's talk about the second candidate. 

Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the National Alliance, who will enter the second round in second place, must first of all eliminate the sadness and disappointment among his own supporters. Yes, the result of the first round may have been disappointing, but it is obvious that the match is not over yet. There are no winners and no losers in the first round. Anything can happen in the second round. It is not easy to defeat 20 years in power in an instant, and Kılıçdaroğlu knows this best. It is an important achievement that the votes of the opposing party decreased first in the 2019 local elections and then in the general elections on May 14, 2023, and that this decrease continued. On the other hand, failing to gain power in terms of both the presidency and the number of parliamentary seats, even after a period in which his opponent failed to fulfill any of his promises, despite the fact that the economy was so badly managed, corruption allegations were rampant, poverty increased and bans increased rather than decreased, is a clear failure, whatever the excuses. In order to reverse this failure in the one-week period remaining for the second round, policies and discourses that will have a great impact on the public need to be produced. Let us emphasize that this production should not be done by a single person, but by all components and intensively. 

A majority in parliament for the People's Alliance may give Erdoğan an advantage for the second round in terms of a stable government. On the other hand, it is also likely that the people, who see that they are getting poorer and losing their freedoms with this political understanding they have supported for years, will increase their support for Kılıçdaroğlu in order to prevent the regime from turning into a one-man regime. If the public thinks, "After all, the People's Alliance has the majority in the legislature, let's give the executive power to the People's Alliance," the system of checks and balances will be automatically ensured. In this way, both the security concerns that have intensified in some parts of the public would be alleviated, and a return to solution-oriented, scientific policies with meritorious staff can be achieved in order to improve the economy.  If this view becomes widespread and accepted, Kılıçdaroğlu's votes may increase.

In sum, in light of the fact that voting rates abroad are on the rise, the second round is not in the bag for either candidate. Regardless of the developments in the last week, the outcome of the election will be one in which there is not a huge difference. 

The greatest desire of the nation is for an election in which the right and the just win, the wrong and the unjust lose, the will of the nation is fully reflected in the ballot box and democracy wins.