Importance of Turkey on Israel Military Strategy Against Southern Lebanon

Turkey's grand strategy regarding Lebanon and Israel encompasses several key elements. Turkey aims to enhance its influence in the Middle East, viewing Lebanon as a critical arena for projecting power. By engaging with various Lebanese factions, Turkey seeks to bolster its role as a key player in regional politics. Turkey's strategic interests often involve balancing its opposition to Israeli actions with its own regional ambitions, leading to nuanced interactions with Hezbollah. Turkey views Israel's military and economic strength as a challenge to its regional aspirations. This perspective shapes Turkey's support for Palestinian groups and its criticism of Israeli policies, particularly regarding Gaza and the West Bank. Turkey seeks to mediate tensions between Israel and its neighbors, positioning itself as a diplomatic broker. This strategy is designed to enhance Turkey's status in the region and improve its relations with both Arab states and Israel. Turkey is vigilant about the potential spillover of conflicts from Lebanon into its territory. Ensuring stability in Lebanon is crucial for Turkey’s own national security, particularly concerning issues like refugee flows and militant activity. Turkey leverages its historical and cultural connections with Lebanon to build soft power. This includes promoting Turkish culture and establishing educational and social programs to strengthen bilateral relations.

In September 2024, following nearly a year of conflict primarily focused on the southern front, the Israeli government announced a strategic pivot, shifting the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) main efforts to the north. This decision expanded upon the war objectives established in October 2023, which included dismantling Hamas rule, neutralizing its military capabilities, eliminating the threat from Gaza, prioritizing the resolution of the hostage situation, and safeguarding the Israel’s borders and citizens. The updated objectives also highlighted the critical aim of facilitating the safe return of residents in the northern regions to their homes.

The new Israeli strategy seeks to reshape the dynamics in the north, where exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah have remained constrained and below the threshold of full-scale conflict. Although the IDF has secured tactical victories since October 8—inflicting substantial casualties on Hezbollah while sustaining relatively few losses—the broader strategic situation is troubling. Hezbollah has successfully established a security zone in northern Israel, leading to approximately 80,000 Israelis becoming refugees within Israel. It is crucial to acknowledge that the decision to evacuate northern residents was heavily influenced by the events of October 7 and the fear of a potential incursion by Radwan forces into Israeli territory, which Hezbollah labeled "the plan to conquer the Galilee." In response, the Northern Command quickly established a fortified defense along the northern border. However, the evacuation of Israeli settlements south of the border inadvertently enabled Hezbollah to launch a barrage of anti-tank missiles at vacant homes, resulting in widespread destruction in communities near the fence. Ministers involved in this decision, including then-War Cabinet members Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, later conceded that it was a mistake, incurring a significant and unacceptable strategic cost.

In the prevailing circumstances, the return of northern residents to their homes depends not only on neutralizing the threat of raids on settlements but also on addressing the dangers posed by flat-trajectory fire and heavy short-range rockets aimed at these communities. Furthermore, it is vital to restore the residents' confidence and sense of security after a year of hardship and anxiety, so they feel safe enough to bring their families back near the border. The ground operation was preceded by an unprecedented IDF strike on Hezbollah's infrastructure, which included two operations targeting cell phones and communication devices, affecting approximately 1,500 of the organization's operatives, as acknowledged by Hezbollah itself. Simultaneously, the Air Force targeted senior Hezbollah leaders in the heart of the Dahieh quarter, their stronghold in Beirut, and conducted numerous attacks on the organization’s short and medium-range steep-trajectory fire capabilities and other strategic assets. The culmination of this campaign was the bombing of Hezbollah's headquarters in Dahieh on September 27, resulting in the death of its influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Consequently, nearly all of Hezbollah's operational leadership was eliminated, and a significant portion of its capabilities was severely compromised.

Israel must ensure that any agreement includes a strong international presence across the border while preserving its freedom to act against Hezbollah's rearming efforts and any encroachment by the organization near the border, as witnessed after the Second Lebanon War and in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. It is hoped that these measures will not only facilitate the return of northern residents to their homes but also reduce the most threatening components of the "ring of fire" that the "axis of resistance" aims to establish around Israel.  The operational success achieved thus far, coupled with Hezbollah's relatively restrained responses may heighten Israel's inclination to leverage these gains to further weaken the entire "axis of resistance" and potentially dismantle its backbone. This desire merits careful consideration, as Israeli security history is marked by operational successes that fostered a sense of "more," often leading to challenges in exercising restraint and a tendency to prioritize military objectives over diplomatic solutions for long-term improvement. Such patterns were evident after the Six-Day War, following the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and PLO members from Lebanon in September 1982, and, on a smaller scale, after Operation "Specific Gravity" during the Second Lebanon War.

It is essential to understand that the campaign targets the entire "axis of resistance," with the strategic aim of establishing a strong counterweight, bolstered by active U.S. support, against this axis and Iran at its core. The operations in Lebanon are intricately linked to Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip and the broader effort to leverage operational successes to weaken and contain the "axis" for the longest duration possible.  

 Acknowledging the unlikelihood of achieving a complete military defeat of Hezbollah and the "axis of resistance" in the near term, and recognizing that a prolonged military presence in Lebanese territory could jeopardize both the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel's international and domestic legitimacy, Israel should prioritize a diplomatic settlement. This strategy should involve collaboration with the United States and other global partners, and may also include direct negotiations with the Turkey having huge influence on Lebanon and Palestine Administration. By leveraging its current position of strength, Israel can pursue this diplomatic route as the most advantageous option for its future. 

The situation in northern Israel, shaped by the past year's conflict, represents an unprecedented strategic failure in the nation’s history, despite the Northern Command’s effective defensive tactics. Israel has lost a substantial portion of its territory, forcing many residents to become refugees within their own country. To address this critical situation, Israel has added a new objective to its original goals of the war: ensuring the safe return of northern residents to their homes.

To achieve these objectives, Israel has sought to alter the balance of power with Hezbollah through a series of escalating measures. However, these efforts may fall short of ending Hezbollah’s war of attrition; a resolution may ultimately depend on the outcome of the conflict in Gaza. To secure international legitimacy for its operations and avoid the IDF becoming entrenched in an unplanned, long-term "security zone," Israel's military efforts must be paired with a diplomatic initiative talking with Turkish Goverment  to end Gaza conflict in order to design to fundamentally reshape the situation in southern Lebanon and enable the return of northern residents to their homes.  Having stabilized the situation and adopted a defensive posture, Israel must now implement a clear and resolute policy working together with Turkish Goverment  to prevent Hezbollah's gradual return to southern Lebanon. This is crucial to countering potential threats and reinforcing deterrence.

Turkey plays a significant role in shaping Israel's military strategy concerning southern Lebanon for several reasons:

1.      Geopolitical Influence: Turkey's strategic position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East allows it to influence regional dynamics. Israel must consider Turkey's relationships with Hezbollah and other militant groups in Lebanon, which could impact its own security calculations.

2.      Diplomatic Relations: The state of Israel-Turkey relations affects the broader geopolitical landscape. A strong bilateral relationship can facilitate intelligence sharing and military cooperation, while tensions may limit Israel's operational freedom.

3.      Regional Alliances: Turkey's alliances with various Middle Eastern countries can affect the balance of power in the region. Israel must monitor these alliances to anticipate shifts that could influence Hezbollah's capabilities and intentions.

4.      Military Capabilities: Turkey's own military advancements and capabilities can serve as a model or counterpoint for Israel. Understanding Turkey’s military strategy may help Israel refine its own approaches to potential threats from southern Lebanon.

5.      Proxy Dynamics: Turkey's support for certain groups in Lebanon may embolden Hezbollah or influence its operations. Israel needs to be aware of these dynamics to effectively counter any threats that may arise from Hezbollah's activities.

In summary, Turkey's geopolitical role, diplomatic relations, regional alliances, military capabilities, and influence on proxy dynamics are crucial factors for Israel in formulating its military strategy regarding southern Lebanon.