Millet Alliance Candidate Maneuvers

On September 8, 2022, in the evening news, we learned that the leaders of the two major opposition parties paid separate visits to the mayors of two major cities in Turkey. CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu visited Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş and İYİ party leader Meral Akşener visited Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and held talks.

Let's take a look at the reasons why both leaders made different political maneuvers on the same day in a similar manner.

What was striking about the meeting between Akşener and İmamoğlu, which was more mediaized with the formation of a welcoming squad by the police and the laying of a red carpet, was that both leaders practiced a full protocol rehearsal towards each other. It was as if the meeting took place in the style of a future President and Prime Minister. The impression was that Akşener supported İmamoğlu's presidential candidacy and İmamoğlu supported Akşener's desire to become Prime Minister.

So what is the reason for Akşener's support for İmamoğlu?

There are two important reasons why Akşener wants İmamoğlu as the Presidential candidate of the National Alliance. The first one is the intense support the IYI party gave to Imamoğlu in the Istanbul mayoral elections and the sense of mutual trust that emerged with this support. Secondly, and more importantly, Akşener does not want to see a candidate who could be a rival to her, such as Yavaş, as President of the Republic, based on the fact that she is playing the leadership of the right in the future. Apparently, if Akşener can convince the other right-wing and conservative party leaders at the 6-party table, İmamoğlu's presidential candidacy is still on the table, and very strongly so.

Let's talk about the Kılıçdaroğlu-Yavaş meeting.

It is understood from Kılıçdaroğlu's speeches and statements that he is very satisfied with Yavaş's actions and approach. Although his name has been frequently mentioned as a presidential candidate, Kılıçdaroğlu appreciates the fact that Yavaş has never brought this issue to the agenda, has stayed away from the debates, has not engaged in political maneuvers and has only focused on Ankara and the mayoralty. Therefore, even though he has said that he is cold to the candidacies of the two metropolitan mayors, Kılıçdaroğlu is increasingly likely to nominate Yavaş. The main reason for such a preference is not the fact that Yavaş is leading in the polls, but the fact that Imamoğlu could be a threat to Kılıçdaroğlu on the left, just as Yavaş is a threat to Akşener on the right in the reshaping Turkish domestic politics.

While Akşener is trying to emphasize İmamoğlu rather than Kılıçdaroğlu and Yavaş, Kılıçdaroğlu is trying to emphasize Yavaş rather than İmamoğlu.

The result is that Kılıçdaroğlu and Akşener will determine the candidate of the Millet alliance through joint and/or separate political maneuvers. In case Akşener does not approve of Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, the two leaders are likely to agree on one of the two candidates. Until that moment comes, we may continue to see such mutual political maneuvers.