Number of Voters is the Cause, Ratios are the Effect

What does the second round of presidential elections mean?

Let's try to understand this with an example.

If there were two candidates and no voters participated in the voting, then the situation would be 1-1 with the votes given by the two candidates for themselves. In other words, the result would be 50%-50%.

If there was only one voter other than the candidates, the situation would be 2-1 depending on that voter's preference. In proportions it would be 67%-33%.

What I am trying to explain is that the proportions in the first round of voting are no longer the proportions to be taken into account.

In the second round, whoever gets one more vote than half of the voters participating in the voting wins the election.

Now, with this preliminary information, let's try to analyze the situation a little more in depth with numbers.

According to the latest information, Mr. Erdoğan received 27 million 133 thousand 849 votes in the first round.

Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu received 24 million 595 thousand 178 votes.

The difference between the two candidates is 2 million 538 thousand 671.

The total number of voters who participated in the first round of voting was 54 million 796 thousand 49, excluding invalid votes.

In this case, since the total number of domestic and foreign voters was 64 million 145 thousand 504, the ratio of valid votes to the total number of voters was 85.42%.

If we include 1 million 37 thousand 104 invalid votes, the number of voters who participated in the voting would be 55 million 833 thousand 153 and the voter turnout rate would be 87.04%.

Now let's do some brain gymnastics with these numbers.

Our first analysis will be to set the boundaries.

Let's say that if the voter voted for a different candidate in the first round, it means that he/she did not prefer either of these two candidates anyway, so we can assume that he/she will not prefer to vote for either of these two remaining candidates in the second round.

In this case, it can be assumed that whoever received the same number of votes in the first round will receive the same number of votes in the second round. If this were the case, if Mr. Erdoğan received 27 million-odd votes and Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu received 24 million-odd votes, the situation would be 52.45% - 47.55% in favor of Mr. Erdoğan.

Let us now look at the other side of the coin. 

Since Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu cannot convince the voters who voted for Mr. Erdoğan to vote for him in such a short time, he has only one thing to do. 

He needs to convince those voters who did not vote for either candidate in the first round to vote for him. 

Is this possible? 

It is difficult, but let us assume that it is.

If we deduct the votes cast for these two candidates from the total valid votes, we are left with 3 million 67 thousand 22 valid votes. 

In fact, to find the maximum possible limit, let's add all invalid votes as protest votes. Assuming that Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu is able to convince all of these votes to vote for him in the second round, we can assume that he has a potential total of 4 million 104 thousand 126 additional votes.

Assuming that all of these votes were transferred to Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round, his total votes would be 28 million 699 thousand 304.

In this case, the result would be 48.60% - 51.40% in favor of Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu.

Now that we have found the limits of both sides, we can try to make a more logical analysis on this maximum potential. 

By the way, contrary to what is mentioned in many channels, I think that the voters who did not participate in the first round will not participate in the second round either, because if you think about it, the voter turnout rate is already quite high, and it is quite normal that there are voters who have an excuse in every election. 

So in short, I don't really agree with the analysis on the participation of those voters in the second round.

I think it is possible for Mr. Erdoğan's voters to have a sense of complacency for the second round of elections, that okay, Mr. Erdoğan is winning this election again. 

I estimate this complacency coefficient as 10%.

In this case, I think that Mr. Erdoğan's vote in the second round may go down to 24 million 420 thousand.

Even if Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu's voters feel the opposite way, a lower voter turnout in the second round due to demoralization may be a possible outcome. 

I suggest that we accept the coefficient of demoralization as 10%.

In this case, if we deduct those who voted for Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu in the first round but will not participate in the second round, his vote will drop to 22 million 136 thousand.

The difference in votes between the two candidates will then be around 2 million 284 thousand.

This means that Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu needs to convince at least 60%-70% of the 4 million 104 thousand potential voters to vote for him.

If he can do this, he has the chance to increase his votes by another 2 million 462 thousand voters with a coefficient of 60% to a total of 24 million 568 thousand and in this case, we can say that the result will be 49.85% - 50.15% in favor of Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu.

In this case, would Mr. Erdoğan accept defeat?

With 148,000 votes, he will of course object to the end.

That is why I think it is really important to protect the votes in the ballot boxes this time.

Moreover, out of those potential 4 million 104 thousand votes, if Mr. Erdoğan can persuade voters to vote for him, even if just a little bit, he can finish ahead in this critical vote with the same margin.

In short, I think this is the situation with the numbers.

Whoever can convince his/her voters to participate in the second round has a better chance.

Whoever can persuade how many of the potential voters to vote for him in the second round has a better chance.

As I said, I don't like to think in terms of percentages, it can be misleading.

The main thing is the number of voters, the number of voters is the cause and the rates are the effect.

I hope that the people of my country will make a wise decision in this round and in the future, neither their knees nor their purse will be beaten.

I think the situation is fifty-fifty for the second round.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow