politics

On May 14th, Factors Shaping Voter Preferences

In the elections to be held on May 14, 2023, some voters who want to maintain their personal wealth from state activities under the political party in power will vote in favor of the government that benefits them by thinking only about themselves and their self-interest.

"An ignorant society, even if it is set free and given a choice, can never make a free choice. It only thinks it is making a choice. Making a choice with an ignorant society is as foolish as asking an illiterate man which book to read! Those who come to power through such an election are cruel and crafty traitors who steal the sovereignty of the people with their theater."

Friedrich Nietzsche

The elections are just three days away, including today. Before May 14th, let's try to answer some of the questions many of us may have in our minds and look at the objective factors that may influence our choices.

What influences citizens before they go to the polls? Are voters sufficiently interested in electoral politics? Are citizens sufficiently informed about the issues discussed in the election campaigns? Will voters vote according to affinity to a particular party, according to their own ideology, or in consideration of economic issues (unemployment, cost of living) that concern social and individual welfare?

In democratic regimes, public voting in elections is the most obvious and fundamental means of participation in the political process. In democratic systems, political elections are a process that ensures the legitimacy of political authority and allows the governed to decide by whom they will be governed. By voting, the electorate makes the choice to give the government the authority to govern itself, to renew or revoke this authority. Undoubtedly, voters are also influenced by internal and external factors when deciding on their political preferences. In particular, the political culture in which they are part of significantly affects the decision-making process of voters. Internal factors are the personal characteristics and experiences of the individual. External factors are the information acquired by the individual and the promises made by the parties during election campaigns. In addition to internal and external factors, economic factors, ideological stance and media are also influential in shaping voter behavior.

In general, political parties aim to maximize their votes in election campaigns, in other words, they aim to come to power or stay in power. Voters, on the other hand, vote with the aim of maximizing their own benefits.

Studies on voter behavior started in the 1940s and gradually increased in the United States after the 1950s:

- "An Economic Theory of Democracy" by Downs in 1957, which was based on the rational choice approach,

- In 1960, Campbell and colleagues' study "The American Voter" and the socio-psychological theoretical model called the Michigan school

- In 1994, Lazarsfield et al. published "The People's Choice", a sociological theoretical model called the Columbia school.

Rational Choice Approach (Economic Approach)

Anthony Downs developed the theory of the "rational approach" in his work "An Economic Theory of Democracy" and called it the "economics-based voting model". According to the theory, individuals pursue their own interests in political life as in economic life. Therefore, in every election, citizens vote for the party that they deem most suitable in terms of realizing their own goals. According to the theory, the rational voter evaluates the candidates or parties, determines which one will best serve his/her economic interests, and casts his/her vote in favor of the candidate or party he/she deems most suitable. In this framework, the voter's voting based on his/her preference considering his/her own economic conditions is the 'ego-tropic' voting model. The voter's voting based on the economic situation of the country is referred to as the 'socio-tropic' voting model. Moreover, according to this theory, rational voters vote by evaluating both the past economic activities of political parties and the activities that they promise to realize in the future and include in their economic program.

In this context, in the elections to be held in our country on May 14, 2023, the voter who wants to maintain the personal wealth he/she has gained from state activities during the period of the political party in power will vote in favor of the government that benefits him/her by thinking only about himself/herself. There will be those who will vote by ignoring the economic problems that concern the general public, such as the fact that 1 Turkish lira is worth 12 manats and that our currency has lost so much value against the dollar. On the other hand, rational voters who are experiencing economic problems as a result of increasing inflation and unemployment can be expected to vote by making a 'socio-tropical' rational choice. Voters will make rational choices by evaluating whether the ruling party is successful in managing the country's economy.

Sociological Approach (Columbia School)

When voter behavior is examined sociologically, it is seen that factors such as age, gender, education, income, occupation and residential area are very influential on voter behavior. A person's political preference is shaped by the characteristics of the group he/she belongs to, his/her socio-economic status, the religious beliefs he/she adopts, his/her family experiences and the geographical settlement area he/she lives in. According to the sociological approach, social divisions arising from ethnic and religious differences in society are very effective in the formation and determination of voter preferences. Voters generally tend to vote for the political preferences of the group they belong to. Therefore, they are not very affected by election campaigns. Voters of sect groups in our country and HDP voters can be given as examples of sociologically based voter behavior.

Socio-Psychological Approach (Michigan School)

It is a theory developed by Campbell, Converse, Miller and Stokes (1960) from the University of Michigan. According to 'The American Voter' study, the affinity of individuals to a certain party starts at an early age with the influence of their parents and close environment and continues throughout their lives. Voters identify with the party and have psychological attachment. Party identification model voters adopt the party as their own party and tend to support it continuously. It can also be expressed as supporting a party like supporting a football team. It is not obligatory for the voter to have any legal ties with the party they identify with. AKP and CHP voters are examples of this model.

In general, apart from economic reasons, income and education levels also affect voters' voting preferences. Individuals with stable but low income levels want the ruling party to continue in power because they are worried that their situation will worsen if it changes. Individuals with low levels of education tend to favor the continuation of the party in power because they believe that their conditions will not change even if the government changes.

Studies conducted in Turkey show that voters' preferences are generally shaped by the image of the leader rather than the party name. According to the 2014 Ankara local elections, 59.5% of the voters who chose to vote for the AKP did so because of the party leader. In the elections held in the following years, it was observed that AKP voters voted for the party leader Tayyip Erdoğan more than the party itself.

French philosopher and sociologist Gustave Le Bon, in his book 'Psychology of the Masses', lists the characteristics of the voting masses in the chapter titled 'voting masses' as follows: "Inability to reason, lack of critical mind, irritability, gullibility and simplicity. Apart from these, factors such as leadership influence, declaration and repetition have a great influence on the decisions they take." Gustave Le Bon; as it can be seen, he is more than criticizing the electorate, he is also bashing it." According to him, the rapidly proliferating dictators and their new legal regulations are constantly restricting individual freedoms. Certain restrictions are imposed on areas where the citizen was previously free to act, and the people are forced to perform certain acts that they could previously decide to do or not to do of their own free will. Falling prey to the illusion that equality and freedom can be more firmly secured through more laws, the people submit to ever heavier chains being imposed on them. This acquiescence is the ultimate punishment: "...peoples accustomed to endure any kind of yoke will soon begin to crave it and finally lose all energy."

In conclusion, the social scientist Le Bon wanted to warn the electorate not to be will-less, resistless, powerless, hollow shadows, passive automatons.