Predicting May 14th

On May 14, 2023, we are ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections. There is a voice from every head. It is necessary to stop the cacophony of "If he wins, this will happen, if he wins, that will happen" and examine what might actually happen, in line with past experiences and promises.

Although 4 candidates will compete for the presidency, it seems very likely that one of the candidates of the two major alliances will win. Therefore, let us briefly evaluate what might happen if these two candidates win the election. 

If the candidate of the National Alliance, Mr. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu wins:

1. First of all, the mentality will change. With a multi-management approach, consensus will be the key word in decision-making processes. Although Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will have the final say in decision-making, reaching this decision through the consensus of different political understandings and cultures will ensure the general acceptance of the society. 

2. The text of common policies will come into play. All liberal, social democratic and conservative groups will act together. The fact that the leaders of the parties of the nation alliance are in the administration at the level of president and vice-president will speed up implementation. If solutions come quickly, public support will increase; if solutions are delayed, public support will decrease. Recognizing this, the administration will have to work intensively.

3. Whether promises will be kept or not will be carefully monitored by the public. If promises are kept, public support will continue to grow; if promises are broken, people will look back to the old days and their support will decrease. This will be the main indicator of whether the next election will be won or lost. 

4. While the state's fight against terrorist organizations will continue unabated with military measures, it is likely that both separatist and reactionary terrorism will come to a complete end years from now. Because terrorism can be ended not only by military measures but also by economic, political and cultural measures and the most important antidote to terrorism is advanced democracy. The level of democracy will inevitably be strengthened because the coalition formed before the elections will be in power. Thus, the truths hidden from the public will be revealed and the real criminals who manipulated the public will be found and punished. 

5. The concepts of right, law and justice will be reshaped. The society will regain confidence in the institution of justice and stand on the side of the right and the just. The pleasure of earning through hard work and labor, not through unjust and unlawful gains, will be understood. Knowledge, not money, will come to the fore, and the future of the country will be saved as the people get used to and embrace this new situation. 

6. Foreign powers' view of Turkey will change. The perception that democracy is getting stronger will lead to an improvement in relations. Correcting the perceptual, political and mental confusion created by the previous government on foreign powers will lead to normalization of relations. Our friends who had become enemies will become friends again. Refugees and immigrants who came to our country due to wrong policies will be sent back to their countries with the right policies. Thus, Turkey's decline in the world economic rankings will reverse to an upward trend. 

7. Turkey's regional and global effectiveness and deterrence will increase by increasing its democratic, economic and political power in addition to its military power. In the regional sense, relations with the countries around it will increase in line with the main principle of "peace at home, peace in the world". The steps to establish the Middle East Security and Cooperation Organization will accelerate. 

If the People's Alliance candidate Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins:

1. The current mentality, that is, the understanding and form of government will not change. The years-long continuity of receiving support from the people no matter what happens, no matter what happens, will inevitably lead to more marginal decisions. The one-man system will become more entrenched. The outside world will see Turkey as a more authoritarian regime. Relations with the West will become even more strained. Turkey will become a state associated with authoritarian regimes.

2. Since the main program is determined as the earthquake and the recovery from the earthquake, there will be intense construction activities as in the past. Every new building and facility will be used as a propaganda tool. The public will be consolidated by thinking how useful every building and facility is for them. 

3. On the other hand, impoverishment and income inequality will accelerate. As the palliative increase in the lower income group does not trickle down to the middle income group, almost half of the population will become minimum wage earners or close to it. People will be tempted to earn money illegally due to the lack of livelihood. Theft, bribery and illegal betting will increase.

4. The economic wreckage will turn into a collapse due to the likelihood that unscientific policies will continue to be implemented in the economy. Elections, earthquakes, external forces and various lobbies will be blamed, and people on fixed incomes will become poorer. From 16th in the 2000s to 21st in the 2020s, Turkey's economy will likely fall out of the top 25 in a few years with this negative momentum. This economic decline, one of the reasons for which is the more than 6 million refugees in the country, will continue to increase as refugees are not sent to their countries. 

5. After the elections are over, the applicability of the 30-point consensus text signed by the People's Alliance will be a complete mystery. It is likely that the policies that the parties that have signed the agreement but have no authority in the administration want to be implemented will be suspended. The policies of the AK Party and Erdoğan, who hold the power of governance and have not delegated any authority, will continue as the main policy. The other partners of the alliance will have no say in governance. 

6. Because of what happened in the past, it will not be meaningful to expect change in the future; the status quo will continue in a similar way. Problems that have not been solved for 20 years will not be solved for another 5 years. In addition, the state's resources will continue to be spent on investments that are not recyclable, that are pleasing to the eye, but that do not bring profit. 

7. Erdoğan will be the invincible armada, so the system of checks and balances will completely disappear. The not insignificant number of Erdoğan's opponents in society will be completely silenced in this context. There will be a massive brain drain due to fear of retribution. 

It is of course possible to increase these predictions, which I have tried to explain in 7 points each, for both sides. This is the likely situation. After the elections, we will re-evaluate which predictions will be realized and to what extent, depending on the winner of the election. 

The important thing is that you do not allow your perceptions to be manipulated while making your choice. Close your mind and perception to those who associate with terrorism, those who antagonize and marginalize.

It is enough to listen to the voice of your conscience, to think about the future of your children, your country and this strange nation.

You will surely find the right choice.