politics

The rule of law and the misery index for Turkiye

There are two main indices that the world recognises as indicating the status of countries in terms of law and economy. The first is the rule of law and the second is the misery index.

Turkey's in the Rule of Law and Misery Index

In the last week, there has been an accelerated arrest process in Turkey. While the government and its supporters try to normalise the situation with statements such as ‘Turkey is a state of law. The judiciary is independent’, while the opposition and its supporters complain about the politicisation of the law and express this complaint through rallies and social reactions. A large part of the society believes that these arrests are unfair. Of course, the impact of these events on the economy is inevitable. There is already an economic programme that is barely running and these events have a negative impact on the economy.

There are two main indices that the world recognises as indicating the status of countries in terms of law and economy. The first is the rule of law and the second is the misery index.

Let us analyse Turkey's situation in these two main indices and reveal who is right and who is wrong, the government or the opposition.

In the rule of law, Turkey ranks 117th among 142 countries with a score of 0.42. When we look at the countries with which Turkey competes, the gravity of the situation is obvious. Turkey is even worse than Russia, one of the most totalitarian countries in Europe.

Table 1: Rule of Law Ranking-2024

Unfortunately, Turkey has been getting worse, not better, in terms of the rule of law since 2015. Moreover, with the recent events, it is very likely that Turkey will fall even further behind in this index in 2025.

Chart 1: Rule of Law Values between 2015-2024-Turkiye

Let's take a look at the top 10 countries in the rule of law index. Is it possible to see Turkey in this list one day? Unfortunately, it seems difficult with this political understanding and administration method.

Table 2: Top 10 Countries in the Rule of Law Index

Let's talk about the misery index.

Used since 2014 (The Misery Index), the Misery Index was first created by economist Arthur Okun to show the economic situation of the average citizen.

The Misery Index is calculated by summing the unemployment and inflation rates. For example, if the unemployment rate in a country is 10 per cent and the inflation rate is 40 per cent, the Misery Index value is 50. The high value of this index indicates that the economic discomfort in the country affects the people more than other countries.

In 2014, Turkey ranked 22nd in the World Misery Index list with 29.4 points, and in 2019, it ranked 5th among 95 countries with 50.6 points.

According to the misery index score found by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate, Turkey ranks 5th among 162 countries with 120.6 points in 2024. Turkey is only better off than Argentina, Syria, Lebanon and Sudan. This value is a clear indicator that misery is unfortunately very intense in Turkey.

Table 3: Misery Index Ranking-2024

Chart 2: Countries with the Highest Levels of Misery

In a country that is so far behindin the rule of law index, ranked 5th in the world in inflation and unemployment, it is inevitable that young people will be pessimistic about the future and people will try to seek their rights on the streets.

These two indices show that the government, which has ruled Turkey for almost a quarter of a century, has brought the country to an outdated position and unfortunately relegated it to the relegation zone, let alone reaching the level of modern civilisation in these two indices.

As long as the rule of law does not improve in a country, the search for rights, law and justice will not end; as long as the misery index, which is the sum of inflation and unemployment rates, does not improve, the discomfort will not end.

In short, the discomfort in the society is not only related to the arrests, especially Ekrem İmamoğlu, but also to the levels the country has reached due to wrong policies.

If the diagnosis is wrong, the treatment is useless. The patient of a doctor who does not diagnose correctly cannot recover. The country cannot progress with wrong policies. No matter how good other values are, unless these two bad values are corrected, the level of modern civilisation cannot be reached.