Why was there a political earthquake?

Although I never wanted to in these sad days, the developments made me feel obliged, I think I have to comment on what is happening on the nation alliance front.

I actually wrote a lot of articles on this subject. In many of my articles, I have criticised the importance of common sense, even that this unity is very valuable, where the one-man system imposed by the government on this country has brought us and what the country may experience in the future.

Until yesterday, I also wrote that the six opposition parties, which we know as the six tables, came together around a table, and that the work they did with common sense in an order I call quantum theory in politics and the decisions they took together were really valuable in my opinion.

I even criticised the six-party table for being late on many issues.

However, as it is seen, the debate on who will be a candidate, which they have not been able to agree on for a long time and which I could not understand for some reason, has come and come, it has erupted as a crisis in these last days, and this crisis seems to be a big enough crisis that could cause the dissolution of the unity we now call the alliance of nations with the press statement made by Ms Meral Akşener.

Some people say that it is already over, but let me say that I still have a little hope.

Of course, it is not going to happen. 

As I have written before, I think the one who leaves the table has committed suicide and I think the IYI Party has really committed suicide.

I was describing Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu, who made great efforts in the establishment of the table, as the master who repaired the broken vehicle, or the master who recreated the vehicle.

In one of my articles, I even used a metaphor by saying let the master make the last fine adjustments.

So what is the objection of the İYİ Party? Or the reason for this suicide?

The candidate discourse that will win!

So?

Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, you can't win, the İYİ Party was saying!

And it was expressing this in front of the press, in every environment it could find.

But for Mr Imamoğlu or Mr Yavaş, he was clearly saying that they would win.

Yes, society has a favour for both mayors.

One of them gave the impression that he was following the same path in the political journey of Mr Erdoğan, and he did not hesitate to hint that he would be very pleased if he was nominated as a candidate in the first days of his mayoralty. 

Being the mayor of Istanbul, after all these years, had given the government a sense of defeat, and despite all the electoral tricks, he had won the mayorship by a large margin in the repeated elections. 

Of course, this is a very important achievement! 

The other one seemed to be closer to the İYİ Party as he came from a nationalist base in his past political life. 

In addition, after the mayoral elections, he had also gained popularity in the eyes of the society with what he quietly did in the capital.

Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, had lost the elections against Mr Erdoğan in all the elections he had entered one-on-one so far. In the last mayoral elections, although he finally achieved a great success in big cities with his candidate preferences, he was still slightly behind the People's Alliance in terms of vote rate throughout Turkey. 

Under these circumstances, when the discourse was on the candidate who would win the presidency, Mr Kılıçdaroğlu was interpreted as the candidate who would not win the election from the perspective of the İYİ Party.

This is what we all know and the tip of the iceberg that is visible to us.

However, what is the truth about the invisible part of the iceberg under the water?

This is a question that I am also very curious about the answer!

Why might Mr Akşener or the İYİ Party not want Mr Kılıçdaroğlu?

Let's try to analyse this together.

1) It is true, the difference in understanding between the Republican People's Party and the IYI Party in the management of the country is quite high.

From a general point of view, there are big differences between right-wing politics and left-wing politics. In addition, the right-wing voter base in Turkey is slightly higher than the left-wing voter base (60-65 per cent right-wing voters, 35-40 per cent left-wing voters).

In today's politics, however, differences of opinion in the management of the state, especially in the management of the economy, are more important than differences of opinion on the right or the left. The leftist view is interpreted as being more of a social state.

So, do these differences of opinion have any effect on the objection of the IYI Party against Mr Kılıçdaroğlu? 

I don't think so!

Since the state administration in this transition period will be carried out in accordance with the joint decisions taken and the transition period protocol, the differences in the economic perspective between the parties are not important for the time being. The welfare state policies are also written clearly enough in the protocol.

In other words, no matter who comes to power, at least the path to be followed during the transition period is clear from the beginning.

In this sense, it should not matter who the candidate is!

2) I will not even discuss whether Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is qualified for the presidency. 

In terms of his years of state experience and personal virtues, I think no one has any objection to the fact that he is the most suitable candidate for that position. 

The only objection is from the İYİ Party. All other parties have already accepted Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy. 

But the reason for the IYI Party's objection is not entirely clear. 

The only thing that can be said is the difference in belief, which I remember that Mr Akşener's response to people from her own party who raised this issue was quite harsh.

So this cannot be the problem!

3) Could it be that the political foot games of the government, factions within the opposition, and moves of sedition and mischief have worked?

Yes, there were several calls for Mrs Meral to return home. Meral Hanım even gave a humorous response to one of them in the evening, saying that she had finished her work at the party headquarters and was going home.

However, as far as I understand, this call went in one ear and stayed in the other. It may have been somewhere in her mind.

Yes, what would the IYI Party lose if it came to power?

It would lose a lot for sure.

First of all, it would lose a large part of its voter base on which its existence is based. 

In the beginning, its voters were already the nationalist voters who were uncomfortable with the pro-government stance of the MHP, and its founding cadres were those who had broken away from the MHP. 

In the course of time, it had incorporated former Justice Party and ANAP cadres, and it even claimed to be a centre party by incorporating some left-wing cadres.

Therefore, I can say that we do not have enough evidence to claim that it had a goal of coming close to the government.

However, the example of today's MHP stands in front of their eyes, and the power that the MHP has gained in the administration of the country under the wing of the Ak Parti is perhaps fascinating to some of the current cadres.

Could this situation be a reason?

Why not, I think this meaningless and disappointing decision taken unanimously by the GİK is a proof of this situation! 

I think this information has also been denied. I remember I heard a news report that the decision was not unanimous and that one of the GİK members even resigned from both the GİK and the party.

It does not matter, since this decision was accepted by a large majority, we can say that they are behind Mr Akşener as a party.

Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, who said that he would destroy the established order and recover the 418 billion dollars you stole, may have been scaring the IYI Party cadres for a long time! 

Because even though they are not in power, there are many cadres within the IYI Party who are part of this order.

Could this be a reason? 

Why not!

4) Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's HDP card may also be a factor. 

Unfortunately, the nationalist vein cannot accept that there are voters of Kurdish origin in this country and that the majority of these voters voted for HDP in the last elections. 

In this regard, the nationalist thought from which they have emerged unfortunately does not realise how much their insistence on ethnic discrimination affects this country.

I am also a person with nationalist thoughts, but my nationalist thought is completely in the nationalist line of Atatürk. Therefore, I think national unity is the nationalist view that we should have. 

Although Ms Meral Akşener has started her journey from Ahlat, she has not been able to have enough contact with Kurdish voters. Unfortunately, sensitive cadres within the party have not been able to make their voices heard enough.

The CHP wing, on the other hand, stands closer to Kurdish voters, unlike the IYI Party. 

Especially in the case of Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, although it is certain that he will receive the votes of the majority of Kurdish voters, it seems that this is not enough for the İYİ Party to accept Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy.

Ethnic concerns seem to be more dominant for the İYİ Party! I think they are wrong.

5) I think it is also a problem that the rate of votes to be received throughout Turkey with the mayors is higher than Mr Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, and that it is expressed with the discourse of the candidate to be elected. 

In my opinion, if this is the problem, they should have said it in a clearer language.

It is not really understandable why this situation is ignored by the IYI Party despite the fact that it is certain that the mayorships, which have already been obtained with great difficulty, will change hands in this situation due to the ruling majority in the municipal assemblies.

Although some IYI Party members have already stated that when the presidency is obtained, even if the representative of the government in the municipal councils is elected as the new mayor, this situation can be transferred back to the opposition side with the legal arrangements to be made, I understand that the negative situation that the surrender of the municipality to the government in this process will create in the eyes of the society has not been evaluated well enough by the IYI Party for some reason. I think this thought and explanation is not enough.

Since Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu knows this situation well, since he has analysed it better, even if he tries to prevent this situation in his own way after a certain period of time after the local elections, I must say that it is a matter of criticism for me that he has not resolved this issue in a timely and high enough tone!

Nevertheless, the compulsion of the İYİ Party on this issue is really incomprehensible. They were expected to be aware of this situation.

Moreover, in the last press release, it is not acceptable for Ms Meral Akşener to invite the mayors to rebel against their party. 

I think this call can be characterised as political impoliteness to say the least. In fact, I think this call deserves a heavier definition.

In short, if this objection is based solely on the argument that Mr Kılıçdaroğlu will not win the election, then an alternative to Mr Kılıçdaroğlu should have been created much earlier, which the İYİ Party itself would propose.

I think the IYI Party has made a big mistake in this regard.

However, it is another handicap that the mayors are not disturbed by these thoughts on themselves, or even that they are favourable to this situation. 

Let me cut this issue short by saying that politics is such a thing. 

I would have prevented these discourses with a very precise language from the beginning.

But I am not a politician. 

They are politicians!

6) The discourse that the aim is to change the system and that the presidential candidate is actually not very important, although it was a pleasant discourse for both parties at the beginning, it means that this is not the case, and the fact that both the CHP and the IYI Party entered into a discussion at a level that would break the table on this issue is actually proof that the initial discourses are not true.

So this is also a big problem in terms of misleading the society.

Isn't the aim to govern the country with the current system during the transition period?

So what was wrong with the candidate being a respected person that all parties could get behind, as it was said at the beginning?

Couldn't such a candidate have been found from outside? I think it could have been found if asked!

For Mr Kılıçdaroğlu, it seems to be a contradictory situation for him to say that it would not be appropriate for party leaders to be the president at the time, or more accurately, that it is not acceptable for the president to be a party member, and to be put forward as a candidate today. He probably receives a lot of criticism on this issue.

However, I guess no one is aware of the situation he is in and does not realise that his opinion on this issue has not changed. 

Mr Kılıçdaroğlu intends to complete his political life as president. 

Therefore, he has already said that he will remove his party badge as soon as he becomes a candidate. 

But nobody pays attention to this statement!

In fact, by not bringing this idea to the agenda clearly enough, he is causing the minds to be blurred on this issue.

The issue to be criticised here may be how compatible this desire of Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is with the current situation in the country. Since the priority is to change the system, it would have been appropriate for him to give up this desire once again.

I think this is partly because he was provoked by the government. 

If you remember, for the first time, he responded to a taunt made to him in the parliament by saying, "How do you know, maybe I will be a candidate", and in those days he had already entered the candidate candidacy pot.

Today, even if his aim is not to impose his candidacy, that is, even if he feels obliged to do so under the pressure of those around him because he is not a more suitable candidate in appearance, the fact that the outward appearance is personal ambition and that this situation is expressed in this way by the İYİ Party, or that it is understood in this way, is an indication that both parties cannot analyse each other sufficiently.

In terms of the Good Party, the fact that Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is apparently the most suitable candidate is not accepted for other and different reasons, as I have tried to explain above.

However, the fact that both parties are imposing their own positions shows that the aim is not only to change the system, but also that who will be the president is also very important from the point of view of what the president can do at least in the transition period with the current system's possibilities.

So what is it? The candidate is important!

Even if it is a transitional period, being president is important!

What can I say, I can only say that they are pitying the society. 

7) Let me conclude this topic for now by mentioning the perspective of the other four parties.

The accusation made by the IYI Party against these parties is actually not an accusation that can be swallowed. 

Although it is a matter of criticism that these parties side with Mr Kılıçdaroğlu through political negotiations, what would you do?

Or let me ask the question from a slightly different angle.

If you think that Mr Kılıçdaroğlu is the most suitable candidate, at least if you have no objection to Mr Kılıçdaroğlu becoming the president and if you, as a young party, are planning for your future in Turkish politics, what could be more natural than seeking the most favourable conditions for your political future?

While saying this, I would like to remind you that the aim is to change the current government. 

If the result will in any case result in the overthrow of the current government, it will make no difference to you whether it is Mr Kılıçdaroğlu or someone else.

Therefore, I do not think it is an issue that can be criticised too much that these parties' sole aim is to fill their sails with every wind blowing in the sea of politics. 

As long as they realise in time that the wind is getting stronger and the storm is coming.

At this point, my mind is a little confused. 

Is this exit of Ms Meral Akşener an indication that the storm is approaching? 

Or has it been beneficial for the national alliance? 

I think it is necessary to watch events a little more to understand this.

However, I must have felt it some time ago, because I wrote an article on the Trojan horse.

Yes, this move seems to be very similar to the wooden horse game Odysseus set up to conquer Troy.

What can I say, while so many people in the earthquake zone are in this situation, I am sitting here trying to analyse the situation.

I am really ashamed of myself now, I think it was a pity to spend so much time on this article.

All the best, what can I say.

Love and respect to everyone from Moscow