The Effects of Alternative Maritime Trade Routes in the Arctic on the Geopolitics of the Black Sea in the 2050s

1. Introduction

1.1 Arctic Region, Climate Change and Alternative Sea Routes

The Arctic Circle is defined in open sources as the Arctic area according to various criteria. The Arctic Circle refers to the area between 66.5° N latitude and the north pole. This area has a surface area of approximately 30 million km2. The Arctic is actually a water area surrounded by land. Approximately 90 per cent of this water area is permanently covered with ice. The remaining area consists of the United States of America (Alaska), the Russian Federation, Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Canada and many islands under the disputed or undisputed sovereignty of these countries. More than half of the continental shelf consists of shallow waters.

Cover photo: Alfred-Wegener-Institut / Mario Hoppmann

The Arctic region has about four million inhabitants, including more than thirty different indigenous peoples. It also has vast natural resources and a still clean natural environment compared to many parts of the world. In the Arctic region, unusual climatic conditions - low temperature, high geographical latitude, a distinctive magnetic field, exceptional light conditions - slow down organic decomposition and soil formation processes. In the Arctic waters and cold deserts, food chains develop in a very special flora and fauna.

Once a frozen region of interest only to a few indigenous peoples, scientists and missionaries, the Arctic is now emerging as a region of economic, military and environmental importance. As climate change normalises the region, world interest in what is one of the world's most pristine areas is increasing dramatically.

Northern Sea Route (NSR)

The first satellite observation of the sea ice at the North Pole was carried out in 1979. With the launch of the Cryo-Sat2 satellite from Kazakhstan on 08 April 2010, the thickness of the ice layers was measured for the first time. Until this time, measurements could be made with submarines. However, the measurements made with satellites have determined that the volume of summer glaciers has decreased by 70 per cent compared to 30 years ago.

With the said melting rate, it is estimated that the Arctic region, which was open to maritime transport for a total of 30 days/year in 2010, will remain open to maritime transport for a total of 120 days/year in the 2050s.

One of the most common maritime transport lines in the world is between Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Yokohama (Japan). With the economical speed of merchant ships (13-14 kts.), it takes about 36 days to sail from the North Sea via the Suez Canal to Tokyo Bay. During this time, if maritime trade routes are taken as a reference, a distance of approximately 11,300 NM is travelled in terms of cruising distance.

However, as a result of global warming, if the poles become suitable for maritime transport, the journey from Rotterdam to Yokohama via the North Pole will be approximately 4450 NM shorter. Thus, a saving of 40% will be achieved.

When the costs in terms of fuel are calculated, 13 Kts. If economic speed is applied, a saving of 650,000 USD will be achieved for each voyage. The fact that the distance between Vancouver and Rotterdam is 8 days shorter than the Panama Canal once again reveals the importance of the Polar Region.

17,225 merchant ships passed through the Suez Canal in 2012 and 16,600 in 2013. The capacity of the canal is around 25,000 ships per year. 15 per cent of maritime trade is carried out through the Suez Canal.

Between 2011 and 2015, between 18-71 ships per year were transited using the Arctic Routes (NSR) within the scope of maritime transport. This number is negligible compared to the world trade volume.

With the Arctic becoming favourable for maritime trade, changes may occur in the main maritime transport lines that strategically connect the continents and the importance of some lines may decrease.

1.2 Economic Feasibility of Arctic Maritime Transport

Global shipping operations depend on three key factors: predictability, punctuality and economy of scale.

These factors currently have some limitations for shipping in the Arctic region. The unreliability of planning due to the high variability of transit times along the Arctic shipping routes and the difficulty in adhering to plans and schedules create an unacceptable (unprofitable) situation for maritime trade.

Profitability can only be achieved with large-scale shipping based on stable and predictable (year-round) operations. For this reason, since maritime transport with container ships requires punctuality, uninterrupted and planned service, Arctic transport may not yet be an appropriate approach, but since a more flexible planning is possible for bulk dry cargo ships and tankers, the transfer of these ships from the Arctic Region can be considered as a suitable alternative.

1.3 Challenges to be encountered in Arctic Maritime Transport

In the Arctic region, the change in the thickness and volume of the glaciers depending on the seasons, melting etc. The free floating of the glacier pieces that break off due to reasons such as melting etc. create a situation that prevents safe and sound navigation. Since it will be necessary to build ships in more specialised standards in order to use ships in such an environment, this situation creates a factor that increases the construction costs of the ships. Various standards have been set by the world's reputable classification societies for ships navigating in ice.

Vessels that will navigate in these regions must meet these standards in terms of seaworthiness and cargo seaworthiness. In addition to these, the presence of vulnerability areas in the environment of being suitable for search and rescue operations in case of an emergency, being able to move to the nearest port, being able to benefit from maintenance-repair facilities in case of breakdowns etc., being able to receive all kinds of supply services including fuel, and most importantly, being able to provide medical evacuation and medical support for the ship's crew in case of health problems constitute various obstacles to navigation in the Arctic region. Natural obstacles such as extreme cold, strong winds and icing also increase the risk factor. However, after 2070, many of these obstacles will be considerably reduced both naturally and technologically, and almost all days of the year will be suitable for navigation.

In the hypothetical case that the Arctic region becomes a suitable environment for maritime trade all year round, the question of how much economic loss will be incurred, as well as the decrease in the strategic importance of both world trade and the Mediterranean and Black Sea, will require some economic measures to be taken today and related investments to be planned. In order for the ships passing through this region to navigate safely and securely during the period until this hypothetical is realised, some facilities and capabilities of the region should be provided.

These include:

- Provision of environmental monitoring and forecasting services providing meteorological, oceanographic and sea ice information,

- Providing Search and Rescue and Ice Breaker service,

- Experienced mariners trained for Arctic operations operate the ships,

- Development of new ship technology for independent ship operations in ice-covered waters, capable of sailing most of the year,

- Activation of Vessel Traffic Services Systems (VTS) for environments requiring navigation in narrow waters such as the Barents Strait.

2. Review

2.1 Requirements of IMO Guidelines for Navigation in Arctic Waters

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has determined the minimum adequate requirements necessary to ensure the safety of life and property of ships and ship personnel navigating in Arctic waters.

Classification societies, port authorities, coast guard commands and organisations related to coastal safety control the seaworthiness and loadability of ships. The design and production of ships that will navigate in the Arctic region are also carried out according to these criteria. There are different applications in many details such as increasing the resistance of the ships against ice, heating measures against freezing and the structure of the propeller. The necessity to have appropriate equipment for emergencies also makes these ships different from other ships.

Arctic waters are completely covered with ice between October and June. For this reason, ice-class ships cannot navigate alone and need the guidance of icebreaker ships. Therefore, the speed of travelling is reduced to 3 kts. Thus, the advantage of shorter sea transport lines of 4500 NM is eliminated due to speed. While the ships using the Suez Canal are travelling at a speed of 13-14 kts, since the speed will decrease to 3 kts at the poles, the ships travelling from a port in China at the same time will arrive in Rotterdam at the same time even if they follow the northern and southern routes. Considering the rules set by IMO, the stone thrown is not worth the frog scared in the current situation. However, after 2050 and even in the 2070s, this situation will change in favour of the poles.

The presence of ice requires specially built ships and navigational skills. Ice in all its forms presents a significant obstacle to ships operating anywhere in polar waters.

Ice floes breaking off from icebergs in northeast Canada and Greenland float freely into the Atlantic Ocean, creating a hazardous situation for navigational safety.

According to Article 194 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), flag States of ships sailing in the Arctic region are responsible for the safety of navigation and environmental protection of the region. Therefore, it is necessary to realise a balanced cooperation between flag States and coastal States. Regional co-operation to achieve the objective must be complementary to the global framework and national regulation.

2.2 Diversity of Legislation and the Role of IMO

Although Maritime Safety and Maritime Security regulations are generally related to the safety of navigation, environmental regulations are also included in the concepts of safety and security. IMO's most important regulation on safety is the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (Safety of Life at Sea-SOLAS).

The concepts of safety and security are often confused when translated into Turkish and the concept of security is sometimes used instead of safety.

Reducing or preventing the possibility of fire by taking measures on our own can be explained by the concept of safety, and the fact that NATO ships ensure the safety of the attacked merchant ship as a result of an attack on a merchant ship by sea bandits can be explained by the concept of security.

Factors within our control should be described in terms of safety, while factors beyond our control should be described in terms of security. IMO's acting as an umbrella organisation and the flag states' respectful compliance with these standards have led to the implementation of standard practices worldwide, led to the development of appropriate devices and systems for safety of navigation, and led to the creation of widespread industrial products in this field. Thus, safety-related advances have been achieved from the design to the production of ships, from their equipment to the qualification of personnel.

After the ship accidents that created a sensation in the world, very serious regulations were put into practice by IMO. For example, even though the shady discussions about the sinking of the RMS Titanic in 1912 by hitting the icebergs make scientists sceptical today, serious standards have been implemented by IMO for ships that will navigate in icy sea conditions based on this argument.

Whether the sinking of RMS Titanic was caused by hitting an iceberg or by fire, safety of navigation comes to the fore in both cases. It is considered that possible accidents and incidents can be minimised by bringing the personnel and material to high standards in terms of safety of life and property at sea.

The Arctic marine area. Source: AMSA

2.3 Evaluation of World Maritime Transport Lines

There are three important main arteries for world maritime trade.

These are the Southern Corridor, the Eastern Corridor and the Northern Corridor.

Potentially, there could be an infinite number of maritime transport routes that could be used in maritime trade, but the configuration of the global system is relatively simple. The main axis is an equatorial corridor linking North America, Europe and Pacific Asia through the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malaka and the Panama Canal. The main routes are those that support the most important commercial transport flows serving major markets. Secondary routes are more often links between smaller markets. The Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malaka are important and primary chokepoints for global trade in goods and commodities. The Magellanic Passage, the Strait of Dover, the Sunda Strait and the Taiwan Strait are secondary chokepoints, although of secondary priority.

After the 2008 crisis, freight rates have shown a significant decline until today. However, the main maritime trade routes have not changed. This is because, considering the countries supplying and demanding goods and commodities, the most economical routes pass through these chokepoints. If all commodities are taken into account, Europe and East Asia, especially Japan, as well as Shanghai, Singapore and Hong Kong and the United States of America have important ports. Especially the East coast of the United States of America is the scene of intensive trade. Maritime traffic is intensified in narrow passages and straits.

Dover, Gibraltar, Malaka, Malaka, Lombok, Hormuz and Turkish Straits are the passages that require intense attention and experience, while the Horn of Africa and Cape of Good Hope have both intense maritime traffic and are risky localisations open to sea bandits.

The table below shows the localisations where the demand for major, minor and liquid cargoes subject to maritime trade is met.

Table-1 : Localisations where major, minor and liquid cargo demand is met

The total Gross National Product (GDP-Global Domestic Product) of the world in 2015 is approximately 74.152 trillion dollars.

Under normal conditions, 90% of these produced goods are transported by sea trade.

The major, minor and liquid cargo demand shown in Table-1 is transferred from the countries where it is met to the needy countries and the final products obtained after processing these raw materials, semi-finished products or finished products supplied by the needy countries are transferred from these countries to new needy countries. Thus, main trade routes are formed.

In times of crisis, the shrinkage of production, the large number of carrier ships cause freight prices to decrease and maritime trade decreases up to 75% of the shrinking world production.

If the North Pole becomes an alternative sea transport route, the countries bordering the Mediterranean and the Black Sea will be able to carry out maritime trade faster and more economically. This situation will require new measures to be taken for the countries bordering the Mediterranean and Black Sea, which will meet the demand for raw materials. In terms of oil and natural gas, the importance of pipelines will increase compared to ship transport.

3. Assessment of the Impact of the Arctic on the Geopolitics of the Black Sea

At first glance, it is not a conceivable argument that a region thousands of nautical miles away from itself in terms of time and space factors can have a geopolitical impact. However, when we look at the countries bordering the North Pole, since these countries are among the G-10 countries and are located in the centre of countries with high strategic influence at the level of global and continental power such as the USA and the Russian Federation, a situation that may affect their maritime strategies in the future with the effect of global warming has arisen. Although it is also taken into consideration that important logistic centres such as the Netherlands may be submerged due to the melting of the ice and the rise of the sea water unless precautions are taken, the significant shortening of the sea trade routes will be an important alternative to the usual trade routes due to the ‘economy of scales’, i.e. the economic scale effect.

The most important advantage of the Black Sea is the richness of hydrocarbon deposits. Raw materials of important goods and commodities of world trade are in the Asian continent. The Eurasian region is a geography of the same importance. Sea transport is 3.5 times cheaper than railway, 7 times cheaper than road and 14 times cheaper than air transport.

In this respect, although other modes of transport cannot be an alternative to maritime transport, it should be aimed to minimise the commercial loss that may occur by supporting river transport and pipelines. However, in case the need for fossil fuels ends or fossil fuels are depleted, the Middle East, the Caucasus and the Caspian region will lose their importance, and the rich availability of boron ore or hydrocarbons in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which contain abundant hydrogen, will eliminate the concerns that the geopolitical importance will decrease.

The extraction of natural and living resources from the continental shelf of the Arctic Region only by the littoral states will be the beginning of another unacceptable struggle in the future. The United Nations 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea introduced the concept of exclusive economic zone, introduced rules allowing transit between exclusive economic zones in order to strengthen the principle of freedom of the seas, and delegated the authority to exploit the underground resources of the high seas to an international commission as explained in Chapter XI.

The International Seabed is the seabed under the open sea, excluding the inland waters, territorial waters and continental shelves of the coastal states, over which no state has sovereignty or jurisdiction. The Polar Region is within this scope. However, among the littoral states, especially RF, Norway and Canada are endeavouring to expand their maritime jurisdiction areas. The exploration and exploitation of extremely important riches (nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, etc.) in the international area, such as polymetallic nodules and polymetallic sulphides found in recent years, are carried out under the supervision of the International Seabed Management to be established.

Turkey is too late to participate in this commission. Moreover, this issue is not only related to the poles, but also to the exploitation of natural resources in the seabed outside the continental shelf. It is of vital importance in terms of national interests that Turkey, which will almost become one of the G-10 countries, should definitely take part in these mechanisms.

Countries bordering the Arctic are rich countries. Somehow, they will be able to create a de facto situation that will narrow the areas outside the continental shelf. The RF shows the greatest power in this regard. This region belongs to humanity and can only be used for the benefit of humanity. Therefore, it is a common area where all countries should show interest without calling it near or far. Because an undesirable strategic transformation in this region will also affect the future of the Black Sea. In this context, for the first time, Turkey and Russia may not be in parallel in terms of interests in the Black Sea. Because RF has coasts on both sides.

4. Conclusion and Solution Suggestions :

Due to global warming, the importance of the Arctic for maritime trade is increasing day by day. Until 2070, it is estimated by scientists that sea trade routes will be completely opened with a gradual melting.

In order for the maritime trade routes to be economical, it is evaluated that a significant advantage can be obtained by travelling 4500 NM in 15 days instead of covering the distance of 11300 NM in 36 days with the ability of merchant ships to move at a minimum speed of 13-14 kts.

The Baltic-North America line can be travelled in 8 days shorter than the Panama Canal. Similarly, the time between the Far East and the Baltic will be 15 days shorter than through the Suez Canal. From 2030 onwards, the routes that are open for 30 days until 2050s will increase up to 120 days and after 2070s, an alternative waterway will be formed to be open almost all year round. In this context, the North Sea Routes (NSR-Rotterdam-Yokohoma) and the Northwest Passages (Rotterdam-San Francisco) will become advantageous. However, maritime companies that will use this route until 2070 will have disadvantages in terms of having ships that fulfil ice-class criteria, having to sail at low speed (3 kts.) and having to incur additional expenses, but they will also be advantageous in terms of fuel saving, time saving, average 40% shorter distance and more income. When profit-loss accounting is done until 2050s, it is considered that it will not be a preferred alternative unless it is compulsory. However, it is an obligation that should not be ignored to plan investments for taking the necessary measures for the period after 2070 from today.

Since it is currently quite risky to navigate on these routes, it will require additional efforts to equip the ships with the standards and special equipment stipulated by IMO. There is already a growing interest in the region for Fisheries, Scientific Research and Tourism. It is important for Turkey to take part in all international mechanisms in order to have a presence and a say in this region in the future.

In conclusion, considering that the centre of gravity of maritime trade shifted from Phoenicia to the Baltic in 4400 years, and from the Baltic to China in 600 years, and taking into account the current speed of technology and the new political climate of the world, it is evaluated that the trade centre will shift from east to west again in 200-300 years.

It will be in the long-term interest of Turkey and the Black Sea littoral countries to plan strategic target plans for more than 20 years ahead in order to be among the countries that play a dominant role in the 22nd century with long-term strategies.

Sir Walter Raleigh, who lived between 1552-1618, emphasised the importance of maritime trade and dominating the seas with his statement ‘Whoever commands the sea, commands commerce, whoever commands commerce, commands the wealth of the world and ultimately dominates the world’, as if confirming the words of Barbaros Hayrettin Pasha in 1538, ‘He who dominates the seas dominates the world’.

The realisation of projects that will keep the strategic importance of the Black Sea alive, create interdependence and maintain peace and stability will be an indispensable necessity of the coming century.

Endnotes

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