The Green Electricity Corridor from the Caucasus to Europe: Turkey’s Rising Role in the Regional Energy Architecture

The New Axis of Electricity Diplomacy

Turkey’s energy foreign policy has witnessed a marked shift in focus in recent years, moving from natural gas transit towards electricity trade. The Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey-Bulgaria (AGTB) Green Energy Corridor initiative represents the most concrete and advanced example of this transformation. It is reported that the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has embarked on a multifaceted mobilisation to prepare for the supply of electricity from the Caspian region to Bulgaria, with preparations centred in Ankara being carried out simultaneously across various fronts, including the expansion of grid capacity, the development of energy exchanges, the regulation of cross-border electricity trade and the establishment of the necessary market legislation. This multi-layered preparatory process is a clear indication that the project has now moved beyond the stage of political declarations of intent and entered the phase of institutional implementation.

The Institutional and Diplomatic Background of the Project

The diplomatic foundations of the AGTB corridor are based on the memorandum of understanding signed in April 2025 by the energy ministers of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Bulgaria regarding the transmission and trade of green electricity; this agreement marked the starting point for cooperation on green electricity transmission and trade between the four countries. The project’s conceptual origins, however, date back to 2024, to an initiative by the heads of state of Azerbaijan and Bulgaria, and the project aims to expand the possibilities for the transmission and trade of renewable electricity between the two countries’ regions.

The meeting held in Istanbul in May 2026 holds particular significance in terms of the process taking concrete shape. At this meeting, the four countries reached an agreement on the establishment of a joint company to oversee the financing and implementation of the green electricity transmission corridor stretching from the Caspian Basin to European markets; this step has been described as the most concrete measure taken to date in this project, which is of increasingly strategic importance. The meeting was attended by Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources; Perviz Shahbazov, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy; Mariam Kvrivishvili, Georgia’s Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development; and Kiril Temelkov, Bulgaria’s Deputy Minister of Energy. In statements made during Baku Energy Week in June 2026, it was confirmed that the project’s preliminary feasibility study would commence this year, and it was noted that the parties had reaffirmed their commitment to the next steps regarding the implementation of the Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey–Bulgaria energy corridor.

“The TANAP of Electricity”: Turkey’s Institutional Preparedness

To understand Turkey’s approach to this process, it is necessary to examine how the project is conceptualised by the Ankara authorities. In his speech at the opening of Baku Energy Week in June 2026, the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Bayraktar, directly described the project as “the TANAP of electricity” and emphasised that whilst the TANAP project focused on gas transmission, the new project aims to transport electricity from this region to Turkey and, via Turkey, to Europe. This analogy is no coincidence; the aim is to transfer the institutional trust and operational experience built up by TANAP over more than thirty years to the electricity sector.

In line with this objective, three key institutions have been involved in the process. The Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ) has participated in efforts to establish the physical route linking the Caspian region with South-Eastern Europe and is coordinating technical cooperation with the electricity transmission system operators of the participating countries. The Energy Markets Operation Inc. (EPİAŞ) is carrying out work to establish the project’s commercial framework and modernise electricity trading networks; it is worth noting that Turkey currently operates Europe’s third-largest electricity exchange in terms of trading volume, whilst the Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) is also involved in the process of establishing the necessary market legislation. This tripartite institutional structure—namely transmission, trading and regulation—demonstrates that Turkey positions the project not merely as a transit line, but as an integral extension of its own energy market architecture.

Regional Context: Parallel Corridors and Competitive Complementarity

To fully understand the AGTB corridor, it must be assessed alongside other initiatives taking shape simultaneously within the same geographical area. The Black Sea Energy (Black Sea Energy) project, which was announced in 2022 as a strategic partnership between Romania, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Hungary and is based on a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cable running beneath the Black Sea, is a notable parallel initiative in this context; indeed, some analyses suggest that the AGTB corridor is viewed as a rival route to this project. Indeed, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Energy, Shahbazov, has stated that the feasibility study for the Black Sea Energy project is expected to be completed in July 2026, whilst the Azerbaijan–Turkey Energy Centre and the AGTB corridor projects have now entered the active implementation phase; he also noted that a strategic foundation has been laid for the formation of an energy architecture extending from Central Asia to Europe.

This multi-corridor structure should be viewed in terms of complementarity rather than competition. This is because Turkey’s geographical location offers simultaneous access to both the Black Sea infrastructure and the land-based Caucasus route; this positions Ankara as a hub within the regional energy architecture, shaped not by any single route but through multiple connection points. As emphasised by Zafer Demircan, Turkey’s Deputy Minister of Energy, at the opening conference of the Connectivity Agenda Platform held in Brussels, Turkey aims not only to facilitate the transit of electricity through its territory but also to integrate its own renewable generation capacity into these corridors, thereby ensuring that the European market receives more electricity from renewable sources.

Turkey’s Renewable Energy Capacity and Evolving Position

Turkey’s role in these corridors is fuelled not only by its geographical transit advantage but also by the growth in its own renewable energy capacity. By early 2025, installed solar power capacity had reached 21.6 gigawatts, representing a 129 per cent increase compared to the previous year, whilst wind capacity had exceeded 13 gigawatts. It is assessed that these developments are shifting Turkey from its position as an energy transit country towards that of a renewable electricity exporter, thereby enhancing the country’s geopolitical significance. This increase in capacity enables Turkey to position itself not merely as a ‘pipeline country’ within the AGTB corridor, but also as a centre of production and trade.

On the Azerbaijani side, plans are in place to export 1 gigawatt of green electricity from the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to Turkey, of which 760 megawatts is projected to come from solar and 240 megawatts from wind sources; the large solar power stations in Nakhchivan are scheduled to become operational in 2026, whilst the wind farms are planned to come online in 2027. This generation capacity is being developed via an infrastructure that will enable the transmission of renewable energy not only to Turkey but also from the Karabakh and Eastern Zangezur regions to Turkey’s eastern provinces, and the capacity of the line in question is projected to reach 1 gigawatt.

Turkey’s Central Role in Regional Interconnectivity

The AGTB Green Energy Corridor is a tangible reflection of the transformation in Turkey’s energy diplomacy, shifting from its identity as a natural gas transit country to that of a central hub for electricity trade. The simultaneous institutional preparations being carried out through TEİAŞ, EPİAŞ and EPDK demonstrate that efforts are being made to move the project beyond mere declarations of political will and to establish it on a viable technical and commercial footing. When considered alongside parallel initiatives such as the Black Sea Energy Project and the Central Asia–Azerbaijan Green Energy Corridor, it is evident that Turkey has emerged as one of the key players in the regional energy architecture through its multiple connection points. In the coming period, with the completion of feasibility studies and the progress of the intergovernmental agreement process, this corridor is expected to further consolidate Turkey’s role as a strategic bridge between Europe and the Caspian-Caucasus corridor.