The US has connected Europe to LNG. Now Trump takes it for granted

Trump warned the EU: You should buy more gas and oil from us

In 2012, the US Congress commissioned a report on the EU's energy dependence on Russia and how to reduce it. Due diligence was carried out. The conditions are ripe. The US entered the EU's LNG market in 2018. Then, as planned, the US, with the effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war, pulled the EU away from Russia's energy dependence and tied it to itself. With the effect of this geopolitical game, the US has created a large and continuous LNG market for itself in Europe.

This development also relieved the US shale gas and shale oil sector, which is seeking to open up to foreign markets. The fact that the EU's energy prices are five times higher than those of the USA has made the European market very attractive for the US Energy sector. Despite the European market, plans for new markets were needed for the US energy sector, which continued to develop rapidly as planned. As a result, the USA entered Far East Asia, the world's largest LNG market. However, there are countries in that region such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Qatar and Australia, which offer low prices with the advantage of geographical proximity to the market.

US LNG production and the number of export terminals are increasing

The increase in the number and capacity of natural gas liquefaction plants in the United States has fuelled the growth in global LNG trade. Increasing LNG demand in Europe with the embargo on natural gas exports from Russia to the EU also contributed to the growth of this market.

The number of US LNG filling terminals is increasing rapidly. Plaquemines LNG, the eighth US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal, became operational in December 2024. When the other phases of this terminal are completed, the total US export capacity will increase to 15.4 billion cubic feet per day. When the three other US LNG export projects currently under construction (Golden Pass LNG, Rio Grande LNG and Port Arthur LNG) are completed, LNG export capacity is estimated to increase to 21.2 billion cubic feet per day by 2028. This makes it necessary for the US to explore new markets and the most suitable routes today.

The US is the world's largest LNG exporter since 2022

US LNG exports in 2022 increased by 16 per cent compared to 2021. In the first half of 2022, after a new LNG export facility became operational, the US became the world's largest LNG exporter for the first time. Qatar and Australia remained the top two global LNG exporters in the second half of 2022 when one of the LNG export facilities in the US went out of operation. However, the US's role as the world's leading exporter in the LNG market continued in 2023 and 2024.

The largest LNG Market of the USA is Europe

Among the LNG importing regions in the world, Europe (including Turkey) has seen the largest increase in LNG imports globally. In 2022, LNG imports of the EU-27 countries and the UK increased by 73% (6.3 BCF/D) compared to 2021. This increase significantly reduced the EU's dependence on the Russian gas pipeline. France, the UK, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium accounted for 85% of the total increase in LNG imports with 5.4 billion cubic feet per day.

Germany resisted until 2022. Then it started buying LNG from the USA

Germany, the EU country most dependent on Russian natural gas, started buying LNG from the US in 2022 and imported 204 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas in 2023 and 210 billion cubic feet in 2024.

EU countries have been making intensive efforts to reduce their dependence on energy supplies from Russia since it began its invasion of Ukraine three years ago, leading to a sharp increase in LNG imports. This increase has pushed natural gas and LNG prices to record highs, especially in the European market. The US is the EU's first LNG supplier. Russia is still in second place. Brussels wants to eliminate its dependence on Russia by 2027. Trump does not want to see any country other than the USA in this market.

By 2023, the EU's total natural gas consumption was around 300 billion cubic metres, of which around 41% was covered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. In 2024, the European Union's (EU) total natural gas consumption fell to its lowest level in 11 years. Between August 2022 and May 2024, the EU's gas use fell by 18% (138 billion m3). Overall, the share of LNG in Europe's total gas consumption in 2024 is recorded at 30 per cent.

In 2023, the US shipped 65% (56.5 million tonnes) of its total LNG production to Europe. This amount decreased to 43.8 million tonnes in 2024.

The EU's dependence on Russian natural gas and LNG decreased from 45% in 2021 to 18% in 2024. While the USA had a 25% share in the European LNG market in 2021, this rate increased to 43% in 2024. In 2024, the US stood out as the country with the largest share in the EU's LNG imports and consolidated its leadership in global LNG exports.

Turkey's LNG imports from the US also increased rapidly

Turkey's LNG imports from the US started at 8.7 billion cubic feet in 2016 and increased to 30 billion cubic feet in 2019, then rapidly increased to 192 billion cubic feet in 2022 and approximately 180 billion cubic feet in 2024.

US opposed. Eastern Mediterranean Gas put on hold

The East Med. Project, which was initiated by Greece, Israel and the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus to bring Eastern Mediterranean gas to the EU, stopped in 2022. Project report preparation stopped in 2022. The US announced that it withdrew its support for the Eastern Mediterranean Natural Gas Pipeline Project (EastMed) in January 2022, causing the project to be shelved for now. This situation brought the European market closer to the US and increased LNG trade.

Trump Warned the EU;

The amount of US natural gas production and the number of LNG export terminals are increasing. This means creating an additional market. The US is trying to increase its share in the Asian market. However, there are countries in that region such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Qatar and Australia that offer lower prices with the advantage of geographical proximity to the market. Therefore, developing the European market is important for the EU. Before Trump took office in January, he warned the EU that it would face trade tariffs unless it imported more oil and gas from the US.

High Energy Prices in Europe

Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, said: ‘Energy prices in Europe are significantly higher than in major economic powers such as the US, China and India. On average, natural gas prices in Europe are 5 times higher than in the US and electricity prices are 4 times higher than in China.’ Stating that exports are the backbone of the European economy, Birol emphasised that the EU continues to be the world's largest exporting economy, leaving the US and China behind. However, he warned that the high cost of energy is eroding Europe's competitiveness in global trade.

As a result, it is argued that the European economy, especially the industrial sector, will face a serious crisis if it cannot find cheap energy. On the other hand, the EU's dependence on the US for energy is increasing. The energy supply from the US is not cheap. The EU continues to search for a solution between this dilemma.