TPAO-NOC Cooperation: Seeking a New Balance in the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Geopolitics

The Memorandum of Understanding signed on 25 June 2025 in Istanbul between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) and the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) marks a paradigm shift in the complex energy geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Assessment of the Strategic Context

Over the past decade, the Eastern Mediterranean has emerged as a region of growing importance on the global energy map. The natural gas reserves discovered in the region have profoundly impacted not only energy markets but also international power dynamics and diplomatic relations. In this context, the agreement signed between TPAO and NOC introduces a new dimension to the existing geopolitical equation.

The technical content of the agreement is quite comprehensive: geological and geophysical studies will be conducted in four offshore areas, two-dimensional seismic surveys covering 10,000 kilometres will be carried out, and the data obtained will be processed within nine months. These figures demonstrate the scale of the project and the strategic importance both parties attach to the issue.

Historical Continuity: The Process from 2019 to the Present

It would be incorrect to view this agreement as an isolated development. The roots of energy cooperation between Turkey and Libya date back to the maritime jurisdiction agreement signed in 2019. This agreement, which sparked significant debate at the time, actually laid the legal and political foundation for today's energy cooperation.

The hydrocarbon cooperation memorandum signed in 2022 constituted the second phase of the process and paved the way for today's concrete projects. This historical perspective reveals that Turkey has adopted a systematic and long-term approach in its relations with Libya.

Geopolitical Dimensions: Regional Power Struggle

Greece's harsh reaction immediately following the signing of the agreement highlights the sensitivity of energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean. Athens' decision to immediately bring the issue to the European Union summit shows that the agreement is not merely a technical energy cooperation agreement, but is perceived as a strategic move in terms of regional power balances.

Natural gas reserves discovered in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years have created new alliances and areas of conflict among countries in the region. On one side, the triangle formed by Egypt, Greece and Southern Cyprus, and on the other, Turkey's strategic partnership with Libya, have crystallised into opposing blocs in maritime jurisdiction areas. This situation is a concrete example of the power balancing behaviour predicted by classical geopolitical theory. Turkey is pursuing a strategy of forming an alternative axis with Libya against alliances that exclude it from the region. This strategy not only aims to gain access to energy resources, but also to break its diplomatic isolation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey's Energy Security Perspective

Turkey's dependence on energy imports is among the country's national security priorities. For Turkey, which is currently heavily dependent on foreign energy, the partnership established with Libya is strategically important in several respects.

First, Libya is an ideal partner for diversifying energy sources due to its geographical proximity and political partnership. Second, TPAO's gaining international experience and increasing technical capacity strengthens Turkey's global position in the energy sector. Third, such projects constitute the energy dimension of Turkey's maritime policy within the framework of the ‘Blue Homeland’ doctrine. Being an active energy player in the Eastern Mediterranean strengthens Turkey's status as a regional power.

TPAO's recent agreements with international partners also show that Turkey is systematically focused on becoming a global player in the energy sector. The Libya project is a critical component of this comprehensive strategy.

Libya's Motivations and Opportunities

From Libya's perspective, this agreement presents important opportunities for the modernisation and development of the country's energy sector. For Libya, which is in the process of economic recovery following the devastating effects of civil war, the development of undersea energy resources is of critical importance.

Although Libya has proven oil reserves among the largest in Africa, its offshore potential remains largely unexplored. The modern technology and technical expertise that TPAO will bring will provide valuable support in helping Libya realise this potential. Additionally, the success of Turkish companies in infrastructure and construction projects in Libya serves as a reassuring reference for cooperation in the energy sector. This experienced cooperation increases the chances of success for new projects. It is also possible for Libya to receive support from Turkey in areas such as strengthening the institutional capacity of the NOC and training personnel. This is important for Libya to achieve its sustainable development goals in the energy sector.

Technical and Technological Dimensions

The use of modern seismic research technologies in this project will enable detailed mapping of Libya's subsea geology. Advanced technologies such as two-dimensional seismic imaging, three-dimensional geological modelling and artificial intelligence-supported data analysis will be used to determine the exact locations of hydrocarbon resources.

This technological approach promises a higher success rate compared to traditional exploration methods.

In addition, environmental impact assessments and sustainable development approaches will ensure that the project is carried out in accordance with international standards.

The 10,000-kilometre seismic survey will enable a comprehensive examination of Libya's continental shelf. This data set will be a valuable resource for future exploration activities.

Economic Impact and Expectations

The economic dimension of the agreement is of strategic importance for both countries. Although Libya's oil reserves are among the largest in Africa, its offshore potential has not yet been fully assessed. The research to be conducted under this agreement could lead to significant increases in Libya's energy revenues if new reserve areas are discovered.

From Turkey's perspective, this partnership could contribute to reducing energy imports and achieving the long-term goal of becoming a net exporter in the energy sector. The technical experience and revenue that TPAO will gain from international projects will enhance the company's global competitiveness.

If the project is successful, economic cooperation between the two countries could expand into new areas. A successful partnership in the energy sector could create opportunities for cooperation in other sectors as well.

Regional Reactions and Diplomatic Outcomes

The reactions of regional countries following the signing of the agreement demonstrate the intensity of energy competition in the Eastern Mediterranean. In particular, Greece's immediate initiative at the European Union level reveals that the issue is not only a matter of bilateral energy cooperation but is also being assessed in terms of regional power balances.

Egypt's silence is noteworthy and can probably be interpreted as a reflection of Cairo's process of normalising relations with Turkey. Israel's lack of an official response to the issue most likely indicates that it is closely monitoring developments.

These reactions will play an important role in shaping regional diplomacy in the future. Turkey's partnership with Libya may also encourage other countries in the region to engage in new diplomatic initiatives.

Conclusion: Paradigm Shift or Tactical Move?

The TPAO-NOC cooperation agreement should be considered an important development in the energy geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean. In order to fully understand the long-term effects of the agreement, both its technical results and geopolitical implications must be closely monitored.

The success of this cooperation depends not only on the amount of hydrocarbon reserves to be discovered, but also on the preservation of regional peace and stability, the fulfilment of environmental sustainability criteria, and the establishment of legitimacy within the framework of international law.

This move in Turkey's energy diplomacy should be seen as part of a comprehensive strategy to strengthen the country's regional power status. For Libya, this partnership presents a valuable opportunity to achieve its modernisation and development goals in the energy sector.

In the coming period, it will be important to closely monitor how this agreement will affect the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and whether it will create new opportunities for regional cooperation. It is critical that energy resources be used as a tool for cooperation rather than conflict in order to enhance regional peace and prosperity.

In this context, the TPAO-NOC agreement should be viewed not merely as an energy project but as a strategic move with the potential to shape the future geopolitical architecture of the Eastern Mediterranean. The success of this agreement is significant not only for the two countries but also for the energy security and economic prosperity of the entire region.