Turkey's Innovative Hydropolitics in the Middle East

Cooperation on transboundary water management and climate change management in the Middle East will have a lasting impact on the region's political and economic future. Currently, intensifying climate impacts and political instability are forcing governments to take urgent action. The way these countries manage climate action and water security will reshape state-society relations in the region. Cooperation on climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Middle East will play a significant role in shaping the region's political stability and economic resilience as climate change impacts intensify.

Innovative hydro-diplomacy could also accelerate broad-based regional cooperation. Instead of zero-sum, protracted negotiations, win-win hydro-diplomacy could secure long-term cooperation between countries by offering new opportunities.

This article argues that an innovative hydropolitics and hydrodiplomacy approach using water-oil swap agreements could serve as a good model for ensuring sustainable cooperation and regional development in transboundary waters. An innovative transboundary water management approach integrated with regional development projects will have many positive effects, such as facilitating the financing of new projects, creating positive social and political impacts, and increasing regional resilience to climate change.

Introduction

Turkey's relations with its southern neighbours, Iraq and Syria, have long been disrupted due to the intensity of conflicts in the region, the influence of terrorist organisations such as ISIS, PKK and PYD-SDF, and other reasons. An exception to this period was the extraordinary improvement in Turkey-Syria relations in 2008, which lasted until the start of the internal turmoil in Syria in 2011. Subsequently, while Turkey maintained relations at various levels with the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq, relations with Syria were completely severed and only resumed in December 2024 following the overthrow of the regime by Ahmed Sharif. Towards the end of this period of civil war and turmoil, Turkey signed an important ‘Water Cooperation Framework Agreement’ with Iraq, one of its southern neighbours, in 2024. This agreement was more than just a technical document on water management between the two countries; it constituted the first step towards a new model integrating water, energy and economic cooperation.

The agreement was shaped around the objectives of sustainable management of the Tigris-Euphrates waters, modernisation of Iraq's water infrastructure, and integration of Turkey's technical capacity into Iraq's projects. This agreement was followed by Turkey's unilateral withdrawal from the 1973 Crude Oil Pipeline Agreement on 21 July 2025. This decision can be seen as a new beginning for energy relations between the two countries within a broader framework. The new draft energy agreement offered by Turkey to Iraq aims to take energy relations between the two countries to a multidimensional, strategic level. The planned development corridor project in the region will also play a very important role in the development of cooperation.

The Increasing Effects of Climate Change

According to the World Weather Attribution Service, a two-degree increase in average temperatures in the region could cause severe droughts every five years in Syria and Iraq, and every two years in Iran. The severe drought in Syria between 2007 and 2010 caused 1.5 million people to migrate to cities. The subsequent drought of 2011-2014 increased food insecurity. Droughts and rising temperatures, which have intensified again since 2019, have deepened structural fragility in the country. Various scientific studies estimate that average rainfall in the region will decrease by 10-15 per cent by 2050. In the report on the effects of climate change in the Euphrates River Basin prepared by ACSAD and ESCWA (4), the 1995-2014 period was taken as the base period for the six global climate models used to create climate change projections for the region, with the 2021-2040 period defined as the short-term period and the 2041-2060 period as the medium-term period.

It is estimated that precipitation in the basin will decrease by up to 10% in the medium term, while evaporation will increase. According to a modelling study assessing the impact of climate change on GDP in the Euphrates region (4), in the short term, the average decrease in GDP per capita in the Euphrates basin in Iraq is 3.4%, reaching up to 4.6% in the most affected areas. In the medium term, per capita GDP could be 15.2% lower than in a scenario without climate change. GDP losses in the most affected regions are estimated to reach up to 20%.

In the Euphrates basin in the Syrian Arab Republic, average economic losses due to temperature increases are estimated to be 1.2% of GDP per capita in the short term and 6.6% of GDP per capita in the medium term (4).

The ACSAD and ESCWA Report predicts that agricultural productivity will also be negatively affected if no measures are taken against the effects of climate change. It is predicted that the gross value added (GVA) of the agricultural sector will be on average 3.5-5% lower in the short term. In the medium term, agricultural productivity is expected to be 16.4%–20.5% lower than in a period without additional temperature increases. In the Syrian section of the Euphrates basin, average agricultural productivity is projected to be 1.5% lower in the short term and 8.2% lower in the medium term.

All studies clearly show that failure to take climate change impacts into account and neglecting cooperation in this regard could condemn the region to an unstable future.

Multi-Layered Innovative Hydro-Diplomacy

Water diplomacy is generally defined through treaties, negotiations or river basin organisations. These formal processes are important, but they reflect only part of the picture. The literature emphasises the need for water diplomacy to occur through multiple, overlapping layers. The first of these is the international dynamics, where political relations between upstream and downstream countries shape expectations. The second is national priorities, where infrastructure, agriculture, energy, and economic development policies affect basin and regional outcomes. The third is basin-level institutions that provide continuity and help sustain cooperation even during periods of political uncertainty. The fourth is community-level systems that manage water locally and form the social basis for effective agreements.

This multi-layered perspective is particularly important in regions where the climate crisis, demographic changes and political instability place additional pressure on transboundary resources. Each layer influences the others, and successful water diplomacy can only be achieved by recognising and managing these interconnections.

A New Hydropolitical Approach to Regional Cooperation

Turkey's innovative hydropolitics and multi-layered diplomacy approach in the Euphrates-Tigris basin is an important step towards strengthening cooperation between riparian countries.

National development priorities can shape regional water relations, and diplomacy evolves alongside these priorities. For example, as an upstream country that has made extensive investments in hydroelectricity, irrigation and regional development, Turkey has long affected water availability in the downstream basin. However, over time, Turkey's approach has evolved from a primarily nationally focused development strategy towards one that increasingly emphasises the sharing of benefits and enhanced technical and economic cooperation. This evolution reflects the need for long-term sustainable water management and regional cooperation in the basin, driven by an increasing awareness of the impact of changing regional dynamics and shared vulnerabilities.

Recent cooperation agreements signed between Turkey and Iraq demonstrate this shift. The two countries have established mechanisms to support major water-related infrastructure projects and construction in Iraq, including water storage and diversion structures, irrigation system improvements, and land management. These agreements are supported by joint financing arrangements linked to long-term economic partnerships. These developments also reveal the relationship between the countries' national strategies and regional diplomacy. At the right time, new investments, financing and technical cooperation can become diplomatic tools that strengthen common interests and help translate political commitments into practical results. As climate change pressures increase in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, the need for such collaborative approaches is also growing. This paves the way for countries to transform zero-sum, lengthy and inefficient negotiation processes into cooperation through innovative policies based on a win-win approach.

A Cooperative Approach to Sharing the Benefits of Water

The necessity and importance of a water-energy-food/land nexus approach among the countries of the Euphrates-Tigris basin is clear. Negotiations in this context are inherently complex, multi-layered and protracted. Stakeholders may sometimes display unexpected attitudes stemming from misinterpretations, limited technical knowledge or historical sensitivities. In these processes, an evidence-based persuasion approach, rather than rhetoric, plays an important role in building understanding, trust and harmony over time. Therefore, political will, effort and unity of purpose are essential for success in these processes. Many basins around the world, such as the Euphrates-Tigris basin, require transboundary water management cooperation that addresses water, energy, food and environmental security in a politically comprehensive manner. For this to happen, instead of a rigid, traditional approach focused on the quantitative sharing of water, a more flexible and innovative cooperation approach is needed, one that focuses on regional development projects and prioritises the sustainable use of all resources.

The approach to cooperation between Turkey and Iraq in the fields of water and energy has been such an initial step that should be extended to the entire region. In this context, it should not be limited to simply allocating more water to downstream countries, but should also be based on a broader vision that encompasses the water-energy-food-environment nexus, sustainable water management, joint projects, water efficiency, technological cooperation, and energy and investment dimensions. This vision has the potential to transform the classic water diplomacy model from the narrow field of resource sharing into a strategy aimed at regional cooperation and development in many areas, such as resource management, energy, environment, and climate change.

A New Hydro-Diplomacy Framework

Reports and scientific studies prepared by the United Nations and the World Bank reveal that risks such as climate change, drought, desertification and water crises are increasing in many regions of the world. In this context, transboundary water negotiations, which have so far prioritised the allocation of water in terms of quantity, should now focus on the sharing of benefits linked to water, energy, food security and economic cooperation. The transition from reactive to strategic diplomacy, starting with water management among riparian countries, is not only necessary but also vital for the future in some regions, such as the Middle East, where pressure is rapidly increasing.

Strategic diplomacy should adopt a broader approach to develop regionally beneficial projects and promote water-energy-food nexus agreements that create lasting cooperation. A new and innovative hydro-diplomacy also requires strengthening Track Two Water Diplomacy, which includes academic and policy linkages. Therefore, academic and policy networks among riparian countries must be more interconnected to understand and anticipate both rational and irrational stakeholder reactions. This is because every stakeholder interaction is an opportunity to strengthen trust, reduce asymmetries, and secure long-term cooperation. There is great benefit in continuing a new diplomatic process in the region that takes all these issues into account.

Iraq-Turkey Water Diplomacy

The management of transboundary waters should be addressed not only as a technical issue but also as a geopolitical issue in Iraq-Turkey relations. The issue of transboundary water management with Iraq directly concerns many areas in Iraq, such as energy, food, environmental security, socio-economic development and social welfare. In southern Iraq, particularly around Basra, declining river flows have led to higher salinity, reduced agricultural yields, and economic and social tensions among the local population. Therefore, despite various fundamental shortcomings, water diplomacy has continued in Iraq-Turkey relations and has made significant progress in recent times. The declining flow regime in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin highlights "a process that needs to be managed and the need for increased multilateral diplomatic cooperation.

Iraq has faced extreme droughts in recent years and has occasionally requested additional water releases from Turkey. Most recently, on 1 July 2025, following the visit of Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani to Ankara, Turkey began releasing 420 cubic metres of water per second from the Tigris River. Turkey has been meeting Iraq's requests for additional water without interruption during periods of drought. This situation demonstrates the concrete results of the new water diplomacy between the two countries.

Conclusions

The risks to water, energy and food security in the region, which will increase due to climate change, will not only create environmental and local problems, but will also negatively affect regional peace and stability in political, economic and social terms.

The Turkey-Iraq Water and Energy Cooperation Framework Agreement (2024) can be considered an important step towards regional hydropolitical transformation, in line with the ‘oil-water cooperation’ model. However, the geopolitical landscape of the region is not conducive to the rapid development of mutual trust and interdependence between countries, nor to hydropolitical relations yielding benefits in the short term. The speed and effectiveness of agreements made in this context also depend on numerous regional and international factors. Differences in institutional capacity and lack of coordination between the two countries, fluctuations in oil revenues, and the effects of climate change can also be considered as some risks and challenges to progress. However, despite all these challenges, the region is obliged to cooperate, and this cooperation must be implemented rapidly.

In summary, climate change and other geopolitical risks are increasing in the Middle East. Therefore, the countries of the Euphrates and Tigris Basins must move towards regional cooperation with a broader vision than the short-term, zero-sum classical hydropolitical approach. Within the scope of indirect diplomatic relations, civil society, academia and experts should move away from classic crisis analyses and towards an innovative vision of cooperation to encourage regional cooperation. Turkey's New Innovative Hydropolitics and Hydro-Diplomacy initiative aims to increase regional cooperation. Therefore, this initiative should be carefully evaluated by the countries in the region, taking into account climate change and increasing geopolitical risks. Efforts towards cooperation in the Middle East must also take past experiences into account. In this context, there is a need for a more innovative and visionary approach to sustainable water management of transboundary waters in the region.

References

[1] Yıldız D (2025) “An Innovative Approach to Water-Energy Cooperation in Türkiye-Iraq Relations” World Water Management, Diplomacy & Science News- 2025-10021 available at https://www.academia.edu/144651425/An_Innovative_Approach_to_Water_Energy_Cooperation_in_T%C3%BCrkiye_Iraq_Relations

[2] Feyzullah Tuna Aygün 2025 “The Beginning of a New Era in the Turkey-Iraq Energy Sector: The Search for Comprehensive Cooperation” 31.07.2025 https://orsam.org.tr/yayinlar/turkiye-irak-enerji-sektorunde-yeni-donemin-baslangici-kapsamli-is-birligi-arayisi/

[3] Mohammadreza Joufar, Hamidreza Mohammadi. Analysis of the crisis in the hydropolitics of the Islamic world, a case study of Iran and Turkey's ‘GAP’ and ‘DAP’ projects. Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World.

[4] Arab Centre for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD) and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). 2021. Impact of Climate Change on Shared Water Resources in the Euphrates River Basin. RICCAR Technical Report, Beirut. E/ESCWA/CL1.CCS/2021/RICCAR/TechnicalReport.11.