Ukraine and Energy Terrorism: Attack on TurkStream Natural Gas Pipeline

The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation (Russia) reported that Ukraine attempted to attack the compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies natural gas to the TurkStream pipeline, with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Although this attack attempt is characterised by Russia as a continuation of energy terrorism, it may lead to extremely important developments in the coming days. As a matter of fact, it is extremely wrong to see the TurkStream natural gas pipeline only as a part of Russian critical energy infrastructures. Therefore, this incident is likely to have serious repercussions in the international arena.

Ukraine's Attack Attempts are Extremely Critical for Energy Geopolitics

Some of the steps taken by Ukraine in recent days, especially in the field of natural gas, are becoming extremely remarkable. While an important development such as the non-renewal of the natural gas transit agreement with Russia is still hot, Ukraine's attempt to attack the TurkStream natural gas pipeline has caused the eyes to turn to the Black Sea once again. However, this latest development in particular raises the question of whether Ukraine has started to act uncontrollably or has become a proxy for a number of different actors. As a matter of fact, Ukraine's attempt to attack the TurkStream natural gas pipeline should not be seen as an ordinary development. In fact, the pipeline in question is more than just a part of Russia's critical energy infrastructure. As a matter of fact, TurkStream is not primarily an energy transmission line that serves only Russian domestic consumption.

In this respect, a number of European countries, particularly Turkey, meet a significant portion of their natural gas needs through TurkStream. However, given the non-renewal of the Ukraine-Russia natural gas transit agreement and the status of the Nord Stream pipelines, TurkStream is the only pipeline through which gas continues to flow to Europe. Therefore, the effects of a possible interruption and/or stoppage in the TurkStream pipeline will not be limited to Russia. In this context, it is possible to characterise Ukraine's attempts to attack the TurkStream pipeline as an extremely critical development in terms of energy geopolitics. As a matter of fact, this situation may have important consequences for both regional energy security and Turkey's role as an international energy transit centre and energy security.

Ukraine's Motivations

The existence of a number of motivations underlying Ukraine's attempts to attack TurkStream is indisputable. The first of these is an economic and strategic blow to Russia. As it is well known, Ukraine uses attacks on energy infrastructure as a strategy to prevent Russia's gas deliveries to Europe and reduce its revenues. Another motivation is to target the cooperation between Turkey and Russia. This is primarily because TurkStream is one of the alternative routes bypassing Ukraine for Russia to export gas to Europe. Accordingly, Ukraine is trying to narrow Russia's energy export options by targeting such pipelines. Finally, Ukraine's main motivation is to gain the support of the West.

Accordingly, it can be considered that Ukraine aims to gain more military and economic support by utilising the West's sensitivity on energy security through such attacks. Of all these motivations, the one that comes to the forefront is undoubtedly gaining the support of the West. The recent behaviour of Ukraine supports this idea. On the other hand, the attempted attack on TurkStream shows that Ukraine is gradually turning into a proxy actor while trying to gain the support of the West. In this context, we can say that this incident gives the impression that Ukraine is acting as a proxy actor of the West.

Energy Terrorism

Energy has a strategic importance as one of the basic elements of the economic, military and social structures of modern societies. However, the control of energy resources and the security of supply of these resources have become an important area of competition in international relations. However, the increasing strategic importance of energy infrastructures has also led to an increase in terrorist attacks targeting these infrastructures. In this context, energy terrorism is defined as a threat element in which non-state actors carry out deliberate attacks against energy facilities and infrastructure.

Energy terrorism can be defined as sabotage and attack activities carried out by a state or non-state actor against energy resources, energy transmission lines, refineries, dams and energy production facilities. The main purpose of these attacks is to weaken the economic and military capacity of the target country, create social chaos and gain strategic advantage. Energy terrorism can be considered as a part of asymmetric warfare strategies. Since non-state actors or terrorist groups do not have sufficient capacity in conventional warfare, they try to gain strategic advantage by aiming to damage the critical infrastructures of the enemy state.

In this context, we can say that Ukraine's recent behaviour serves a kind of energy terrorism. In fact, especially with the recent developments, this situation is clearly evident. Therefore, Ukraine is one of the most critical security problems of recent years, such as energy terrorism. This threat should be reversed as soon as possible as it is becoming an important factor affecting not only certain regions but also global energy supply security and economic stability.

Conclusion

Energy supply security stands out as one of the basic parameters of inter-state competition in today's international relations. Natural gas pipelines are both economically and geopolitically strategic infrastructures and play a critical role in shaping the relations between energy transit countries and suppliers.

In this context, Ukraine's attempts to attack the TurkStream pipeline require a comprehensive assessment in terms of regional energy security, geopolitical balances and international law. Indeed, Ukraine's attempts to attack the TurkStream pipeline is a development with profound implications for energy security, geopolitical balances and international law. While such attacks lead Turkey to review its energy supply security policies, they also have an impact on Europe's energy dependence and NATO's strategic balances.

In the coming period, it is of utmost importance for Turkey to become more resilient against such threats by increasing its capacity to protect its energy infrastructures and to minimise the risks of attacks through diplomatic channels.