New Period Developments in Syria; Gone with the Wind

The 61 years of Baathist rule in Syria is now history. Undoubtedly, this change will undoubtedly have effects on both Syria and the countries in the region and even on world politics.

Although the events in Syria have developed very fast in the last 13 days, it can be said that the Arab Spring in 2011 was actually the beginning. The Syrian civil war or the Syrian crisis, which broke out in 2011 under the influence of the Arab Spring, has now entered another phase. In other words, it is foreseen that it is premature to say that the civil war or crisis has ended. For this, it can be said that it is appropriate to wait for the coming months and even years.

Firstly, let us make a brief summary of the recent developments. HTS (Heyet Tahrir al-Sham), which is considered a terrorist organisation by international circles (after the acceleration of the developments, the same circles started to call it the opposition). Under the leadership of HTS (Hizbul Tahrir al-Sham), the Syrian National Army (SMO) supported by Turkey, the YPG/PKK supported by the USA, or SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) as the USA defines it, first captured Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus, and the Assad Government was overthrown. Although the current situation of the ousted President Assad is still unclear, there are increasing reports that he is in Moscow. Of course, it is stated that local organisations and tribes also joined the groups mentioned above as the main actors. Later on, an event that is never encountered in cases where the regime in the country was overthrown and a new era began took place, and the prime minister of the Assad era handed over the country's administration to the leader and representatives of HTS, who led the attack that overthrew the government, with a handover ceremony, as if he had lost the elections.

The question of why the Syrian Army and the personnel working in Syrian state institutions did not resist this counter-attack led by HTS has always been asked. First of all, it can be said that the HTS has stated that the personnel who surrendered, did not resist and even joined them would not be subjected to any persecution or coercion and that they abide by this. Another issue is that the Syrian Arab Army (SAO) has old model equipment in terms of equipment, materials and weapon systems, and it can be said that the training, logistics and maintenance situation is at a very bad level. This is evident from the captured weapons and equipment, ammunition and places used as military facilities. A determination on this subject will be shared here.

Looking at the military aid and counselling services previously provided to various countries, the following conclusion can be drawn. With the beginning of the Cold War, the USA and Russia armed and trained many countries, resulting in the emergence of a Western (NATO) and an Eastern, Soviet Union (Russia) school and doctrine. This is accepted as the ‘standard’ in weapon systems. It can be said that while Western experts train the countries and formations to which they provide consultancy and military training in a more systematic manner, with an emphasis on planning, training and logistics, Russian experts directly emphasise operational issues. Therefore, this issue may have been effective in the sudden resolution of the SAO at the current stage. In addition, it is argued that Russia was again not effective in providing the necessary support to the SAO due to the Ukraine war. Another reason for the lack of support is the inadequacy of the Wagner elements.

We have already mentioned that what happened in Syria is a continuation of the Arab Spring in 2011. Based on the same modelling, some observations can be made about the future developments in Syria. In fact, what everyone is waiting for now is what might happen next in Syria. When we look at the characteristics of the countries that stabilised after the Arab Spring, two issues come to the fore. The first one is the presence of a strong leader (Egypt) or leader formations (Tunisia Quartet), and the second one is the implementation of some reforms by the governments in charge in line with the wishes of the people (Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain).

Syria has come to this situation mainly because the reforms mentioned in the second point were not implemented. The most important issue at the moment is whether HTS leader Colani and his appointed Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir are the right blood, responding to the wishes of the Syrian people, embracing all segments and most importantly, accepting all groups in Syria. In Egypt and Tunisia, where strong leaders emerged in the Arab Spring and responded to the wishes of their people, things have improved, while in Libya, it has rapidly led to division and instability. A similar situation has been experienced in Yemen. However, judging from the first statements of the HTS leader that the country will be ruled by Sharia and his first statements on this issue, it seems as if the instability in Syria may continue for a while.

Regional Effects and Turkey

When the operations against the regime started under the leadership of HTS, the question of where Turkey was in this development naturally started to be asked. The fact that the SMO was supported by Turkey and that Turkey also supported these operations and the statements of support for the operations from authorised mouths gave the answer to this question. But this time, the relationship between Turkey and HTS was being wondered. The fact that Ibrahim Kalın, the head of the National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), was seen in the same car with HTS leader Colani in Damascus and prayed at the Umayyad Mosque gave the answer to this question. In other words, there was a possibility that Turkey might have entered into such a co-operation with the US. The reason why it was with the US is related to Israel's gains, which will be explained a little later. If this is happening now, it seems that such an operation has been approved due to the overlap of the statements and views of Trump, who will take the US presidential seat on 20 January, on ending the war with Russia in Ukraine and the current administration's policies to overthrow Assad.

Since 2016, Turkey has been present in some areas east and west of the Euphrates in Syria through both the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and the SMO it supports. Now Manbij and Tel Rifaat have been added to these. In fact, Turkey's reasons for being in Syria are linked to the final picture it has desired over time since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. Let us briefly list this picture in items:

- Preventing its territory and people from terrorist elements and actions that may come from Syria,

- Preventing a new influx of refugees,

- Repatriation of existing asylum seekers,

- Protecting the rights and interests of Turkmens living in Syria,

- Preventing the establishment of a terrorist state(s) in Syria.

UN Resolution 2254 envisages a ceasefire, cessation of attacks on civilians and a political solution. However, there is a confusion as to what constitutes a political solution and territorial integrity. Syria's territorial integrity can be preserved in two situations: as a unitary or federal state. Although Turkey has been expressing from the most authoritative mouths that Syria's territorial integrity should be preserved as a unitary state, it is highly probable that disagreements may arise on the realisation of this at the current stage. However, it is certain that a Syria divided into autonomous regions or states may contrast with Turkey's desired end state mentioned above. For this reason, it is foreseen that Turkey, as the country most affected by the Syrian Civil War, will endeavour to ensure that the new Syrian constitution to be prepared is unitary and within the scope of rights and freedoms.

Another important issue in which Turkey will play a role in the future is the reconstruction of Syria. Since the beginning of the crisis, Turkey has spent a lot of resources both for Syrian temporary refugees and to facilitate the daily life of the civilian population in the regions where it is effective in northern Syria. However, it should also bring to the agenda the creation of a fund for Syria, especially the EU and Gulf countries, for the reconstruction of Syria (See; AKYAR, M.S. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2300121, Le Processus De DDR De Deuxième Génération De l'ONU: Une Étude De Cas Sur La Syrie).

Therefore, it can also be seen as the criteria that will reveal the situation of Turkey's intervention in the developments that may occur in Syria in the future. In other words, if the above criteria are met, it can be said that the developments in Syria are in Turkey's favour. On the contrary, developments that may occur in the opposite direction should be seen as developments that may jeopardise Turkey's vital interests and living spaces in the future. Therefore, it is premature to say whether these developments are in Turkey's favour or against it. However, it is foreseen that Turkey is indirectly, if not directly, an important actor in the current developments.

Israel's interest in Syria

While the developments regarding Syria were taking place, at the meeting of the UN, Turkey, Russia, Iran, Iran, Jordan, Iraqi officials (DIB) in Doha on 7-8 December 2024, it was agreed on a provisional government in Syria and it was agreed that no outside country should intervene in Syria. However, following the capture of Damascus by the opposition, Israel occupied the Golan Heights, both the strategic areas and the water basins of Syria, Libya, Israel and Jordan. At the same time, Israel has destroyed the full arsenal and critical facilities of the SAO, especially the port of Latakia, with air strikes and continues to do so. However, it seems as if there is a logic error here. Regarding Gaza, the relevant countries involved in the Syrian issue, especially Turkey, terminated their relations with Israel, and Israel was left virtually alone in Gaza.

Now, none of the countries involved in the Syrian issue are in contact with Israel because of Gaza, but Israel behaves as if it is an irresponsible country in Syria, but it is currently the most advantageous country in Syria. Therefore, the relevant countries, Turkey in particular, have to establish some kind of relationship with Israel by excluding the Gaza issue. If this cannot be done directly, these relations should be established behind closed doors or by the US and Israel should be asked to respect Syria's territorial integrity. Otherwise, Syria's territorial integrity and unitary structure may already be jeopardised. A similar issue was also experienced at the ‘Future of Syria’ meeting of the DIBs held in Aqaba, Jordan on 14 December.

In conclusion, it is not correct to say that the civil war or crisis in Syria is over, the government to be established at the end of the Assad era should respond to the needs and wishes of all Syrian people and be embracing, and instability in Syria may continue depending on what will happen during the transition period,

Turkey is an important actor in the current developments in Syria; for this reason, it should endeavour to preserve the unitary structure of Syria in the new constitutional negotiations to be prepared, but depending on the developments, it may need to establish a holistic buffer zone along the entire Syrian border, perhaps by combining the Peace Spring Hrk. Depending on the developments to be experienced, it may need to establish a holistic buffer zone along the entire Syrian border, perhaps by combining the Peace Spring Zone with the west of the Euphrates,

It is foreseen that Russia's losses in Syria will likely lead to a Ukraine-Russia peace, and therefore, it will be able to compensate for its losses in Syria in Ukraine. It is predicted that it is important to bring Israel under control by the USA or in another way in order to protect the unitary territorial integrity of Syria.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. M. Sadık Akyar

Girne American University, Faculty of Political Sciences, Department of International Relations and Director of the Centre for Security Studies

References:

-https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/yazarlar/ahmet-hakan/ibrahim-kalin-ile-colaninin-sam-bulusmasi42625639

-AKYAR, M.S. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2300121, Le Processus De DDR De Deuxième Génération De l'ONU : Une Étude De Cas Sur La Syrie

-https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/disisleri-bakani-fidan-urdun-un-ev-sahipliginde-duzenlenen-uluslararasi-suriye-toplantisina-katildi/3424533