Safety Between Glaciers: Commercial and Strategic Advantages of Arctic Sea Routes

International trade is undoubtedly one of the lifeblood of the global economy. In this context, it is possible to state that international trade is vital for the functional sustainability of the global economy. As a matter of fact, the sustainability of international trade depends on a number of dynamics within itself. However, transport activities are perhaps the most important of these dynamics. In this direction, sea routes come to the fore. So much so that the vast majority of international trade is carried out by maritime transport. This is because a large part of international trade is carried out by sea routes due to their advantages in transporting especially bulky and heavy cargoes. As a matter of fact, according to current data, approximately 80-90 per cent of world trade is carried out by maritime transport. This ratio is even higher for large volume products such as crude oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, grain and container transport. Therefore, maritime transport is preferred due to its low cost and high transport capacity and continues to be one of the most important elements of the global logistics chain.

Importance of Maritime Transport Routes in International Trade

Transport, one of the main dynamics of international trade, ensures the efficient transfer of goods and services on a global scale. In this context, maritime transport routes play a critical role where a large part of world trade takes place. Today, approximately 80-90 per cent of international trade is carried out by maritime transport, and this ratio clearly demonstrates the importance of maritime transport networks for the global economy. The importance of maritime transport routes is primarily related to cost effectiveness. In this respect, maritime transport offers lower unit transport costs compared to land and air transport, which leads to its preference especially for the transport of large volumes of cargo. Especially in sectors such as crude oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, grain and container trade, maritime transport has a dominant role. In addition, the strategic importance of maritime routes stems from the critical straits, canals and ports that affect the sustainability of trade. For example, points such as the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Strait of Malacca and Strait of Hormuz function as nodes of global trade.

The control of strategic routes leads to the intensification of economic and geopolitical competition among countries. For instance, China's port investments under the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative and its efforts to reshape maritime routes are recent examples of this competition. Similarly, the melting glaciers in the Arctic are opening new sea routes, paving the way for this region to become an important part of international trade in the future. However, the importance of maritime transport routes also brings with it various risks. Piracy, marine pollution, extreme weather events due to climate change and political tensions on critical routes can pose threats to maritime transport. For example, the Ever Green accident in the Suez Canal in 2021 showed how delicately balanced global trade is. Similarly, piracy activities in the Strait of Malacca or political tensions in the Strait of Hormuz can disrupt trade flows.

In conclusion, maritime transport routes are indispensable for the sustainability and efficiency of international trade. The economic, logistical and strategic dimensions of these routes shape the dynamics of global trade and play a central role in future policy-making processes. Infrastructure investments, technological innovations and development of cooperation mechanisms for maritime transport can increase the sustainability of global trade by reducing the risks faced by maritime transport routes. Therefore, the importance of these routes should be considered not only from an economic but also from a geopolitical and environmental perspective.

The Importance of Security of Maritime Trade Routes

Maritime trade routes represent a strategically and economically critical infrastructure through which approximately 80 per cent of global trade is transported. These routes are indispensable for the economic development of states, the security of energy supply and the continuity of the global trade system. However, this strategic importance makes the security of maritime trade routes an international priority. This is because disruptions in maritime trade routes not only interrupt the flow of trade, but also cause serious fluctuations in the global economy. Therefore, the security of these routes is an issue that needs to be addressed not only at national, but also at regional and global levels.

Maritime trade routes play a critical role in connecting global value chains. The fast and efficient flow of goods provided by container transport supports the production processes of modern economies. For example, trade from production centres in the Asia-Pacific region to European and American markets is often carried out via sea routes. This shows how critical the security of maritime trade routes is for global economic growth and stability. However, in addition to the opportunities they offer for global trade, maritime trade routes are also exposed to a number of security threats. Piracy, terrorism, organised crime, natural disasters, environmental disasters and political tensions are among the main threats. Especially in the Gulf of Aden, Strait of Malacca and West African coasts, piracy activities stand out as an important threat that may disrupt maritime transport. In this respect, for example, Somali pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden in 2011 posed a serious threat to global trade and the security of maritime trade in this region required the intervention of international coalitions.

Similarly, narrow passages such as the Strait of Malacca are a potential source of risk for ships carrying a large part of the world trade volume. Any disruption in these areas could create a domino effect that could negatively impact global trade flows. In addition, political tensions are also an important factor threatening the security on maritime trade routes. In particular, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for transporting energy resources in the Persian Gulf to world markets, and any tension in this region directly affects energy markets. Moreover, the ongoing sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea constitute another pressure factor on the security of maritime trade routes.

The security of maritime trade routes is vital for the sustainability of global trade and economic stability. When these routes are not secured, not only economic losses are incurred, but also the risk of increased tensions in international relations and destabilisation of the global system arises. However, serious security problems are currently being experienced on these critical sea routes. Attacks in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are only one of them. Indeed, the Suez Canal is not the only vulnerable point on an extremely important maritime route between Asia and Europe.

In the south, for example, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait separates Africa from the Arabian Peninsula. It is also where Somali pirates have emerged as a key player and where Houthi terrorists operating from Yemen have begun to threaten shipping by laying sea mines. A node of similar importance in this regard is the Strait of Hormuz, which provides the only passage for tankers out of the Persian Gulf. Indeed, as tensions between Iran and the West have escalated, it has become an important global conflict point. This is because the increasing tension in the region makes this transit point risky at any moment. A similar situation is also valid for the Strait of Malacca. In fact, a possible disruption at this nodal point is an extremely important threat, especially for China's national security. China refers to this threat as the Malacca Dilemma. Thus, China has long been aware of its own vulnerability, as the US Navy could cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf in the Strait of Malacca. A complete blockade could halt 80 per cent of the Middle Kingdom's crude oil imports.

It should be emphasised that some of these events have already occurred, while others are possible. Therefore, there is no complete reality. Nevertheless, the existence of some realities should not be ignored. Because, even if such results are not obtained, the fact that long-term disturbances on these critical routes reach the level of concern is already causing great damage to the sector by increasing uncertainties and thus increasing insurance costs. For example, the insurance costs of ships operating in Black Sea ports have increased by up to 40 per cent since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War. A similar situation is also valid for the Suez Canal. In fact, it is sometimes encountered that total transport costs increase 2-3 times.

In such an environment, it is undoubtedly not a complete solution to bear the increasing transport costs in international trade or to extend the transport routes. In this direction, the real solution is to turn to reliable alternatives to the existing sea routes. Considering that it does not seem possible to eliminate the security problems experienced in the current situation, turning to reliable alternatives seems to be the most rational option. Arctic Sea Routes are an extremely important alternative at this point.

Arctic Sea Routes

The Arctic region is gaining more and more commercial and strategic importance due to global warming. The melting of glaciers due to climate change makes it possible to open new maritime trade routes in this region. Arctic maritime trade routes offer a great potential for reshaping global trade, especially through routes such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the Northwest Passage (NWP) and the Transpolar Route. The Arctic region is in a position to provide an alternative to the traditional routes through which world trade is intensively travelled.

In particular, the Northern Sea Route shortens the distance between Asia and Europe by approximately 30 per cent compared to the traditional Suez Canal route. This provides a significant advantage in the maritime transport sector by offering the potential to reduce transport times and costs. For example, a sea freight voyage from China to Germany would cover a distance of 20,000 kilometres via the Suez Canal, compared to around 12,800 kilometres via the Northern Sea Route. These routes are important not only for commercial transport but also for the transport of energy resources. The Arctic region is home to a significant portion of the world's energy reserves. The transport of natural gas, oil and mineral resources through these routes has the potential to change the dynamics of energy markets.

Piracy and Maritime Security

One of the most important security advantages of Arctic maritime trade routes is that the risk of piracy is almost non-existent. The Gulf of Aden, the Strait of Malacca and the West African coasts, which are traditional trade routes, have been among the regions where piracy activities have been intensely observed for many years. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reports, more than 90 per cent of the piracy incidents reported worldwide in 2023 occurred in these regions. In contrast, no piracy incidents were recorded in the Arctic region. This situation ensures that ships using Arctic routes face lower security costs and less operational risks.

The absence of piracy activities can be attributed to the fact that Arctic routes are subject to less human interference. The region's extremely cold climate and sparse population structure provide an unfavourable environment for illicit activities. In addition, countries with a strong military presence in the region play an important deterrent role in ensuring the security of Arctic sea trade routes.

Geopolitical Stability

Arctic maritime trade routes carry less risk of geopolitical conflict compared to other traditional routes. Busy trade areas such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and the South China Sea have historically been the focus of international tensions and military conflicts. For example, the Russia-Ukraine war and sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea have negatively affected maritime trade in these regions. The Arctic region, on the other hand, is largely free from such tensions. Although there are occasional disputes between the countries in the region based on sovereignty claims, most of these disputes are resolved through diplomatic means. In particular, international cooperation mechanisms such as the Arctic Council play an important role in maintaining stability in the region. This enables Arctic routes to offer a more predictable and secure trade environment.

Reducing Environmental Risks

Arctic maritime trade routes also offer significant advantages in terms of environmental safety. Traditional routes, which are subject to heavy ship traffic, are prone to maritime accidents and environmental disasters. For example, accidents in the Suez Canal have caused serious disruption to global trade. In contrast, the low traffic density in the Arctic region minimises the risk of accidents. In addition, ships using Arctic routes are generally equipped with icebreaking technologies and have advanced navigation systems. These technologies allow ships to detect potential environmental risks in advance and take precautions. However, as most of the sea routes in the region are still in pristine condition, the risk of environmental pollution from heavy traffic is quite low.

Strategic Location and Military Protection

Arctic sea trade routes are strategically located and offer advantages in terms of military protection. Countries such as Russia, the United States and Canada maintain strong military assets to protect the sea routes in the Arctic region. In particular, Russia has developed new icebreaking vessels, port infrastructures and radar systems to increase its control over the Northern Sea Route. These investments ensure the safe maintenance of ship traffic in the region. Moreover, the fact that the sea routes in the Arctic region are located on the high seas makes them less vulnerable to security threats such as terrorist attacks. In traditional trade routes, transit points close to ports and coasts make ships more vulnerable to attacks. In contrast, Arctic routes offer a more isolated area of protection against such threats.

Economic and Operational Security

The fact that Arctic maritime trade routes are safer than others also provides advantages in terms of economic security. Lower piracy, conflicts and environmental risks lead to lower insurance costs. For example, war risk premiums of ships operating in the Arctic region remain at much lower levels compared to ships operating in other risky regions. This situation allows trading companies to increase their profitability by reducing their operational costs. Moreover, Arctic maritime trade routes are more predictable, which facilitates logistics planning. Frequent congestion, delays and high costs on traditional routes pose a serious problem for trading companies. On the other hand, Arctic routes are less congested, ensuring supply chain continuity.

Conclusion

Arctic maritime trade routes offer a safer alternative to other traditional routes for many reasons such as low risk of piracy, geopolitical stability, environmental safety and economic advantages. However, the use of these routes depends on factors such as environmental sustainability, infrastructure development and international cooperation. In the future, climate change and technological developments may make it possible to utilise Arctic sea trade routes over a wider timeframe. This presents an important opportunity to increase the security of global trade. However, realisation of this opportunity requires that environmental and legal challenges in the region are effectively addressed.