Turkey's Impasse in Syria
Turkey's interlocutor in Syria is no longer only the US but also Israel. Unfortunately, it is obvious that Israel has no intention of listening to Turkey's suggestions and threats and does not take Turkey into consideration. After all, the US supports Israel unconditionally.
Syria is trying to recover. The people are happy to get rid of the oppressive Baathist regime and Assad. But it is very difficult to see whether Syria will be able to resume its life as a state with territorial integrity.
Yes, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) has taken control in the centre, but the north, south, east and even the west of Syria are under the control of others, and those who control these regions have no intention of leaving these regions; on the contrary, Israel's operation into Syria continues in the south, and the conflict between the SMO (Syrian National Army) and the PYD (Democratic Union Party) continues in the north.
Turkey had entered Syria from the north, rightly, because of the need for a security corridor against terrorism, and now Israel has entered Syria from the south under the pretexts of creating a buffer zone against terrorism, controlling the Golan Heights and controlling water resources. It should be noted that the HTS leader was born in the Golan Heights and his nickname is Golani, not his real name. It is not known whether Israel will advance as far as Damascus, but it is obvious that the new Syrian government has no power to stop Israel. The rulers of Turkey should have foreseen that Israel's expansionist policies would continue in Syria and should have developed policies accordingly. But they didn't. Isn't this already Turkey's biggest administrative problem in recent times? Engaging in current problems with current solutions and not scrutinising the future much, and then regretting and asking for forgiveness, saying God forgive, the nation forgive.
Anyway, thankfully we have a good grasp of the present, but what about the future?
What can happen in the continuation of this course?
It seems that the Euphrates River will form a kind of border in Syria. The two separate entities to the east and west of it should be together within the Syrian state structure, but it is obvious that these two sides cannot agree within themselves and continue to clash. In addition, their backing states (the US and Turkey) are also unable to agree among themselves. In this framework, it seems that Israel will take control of as much territory as it wants in the south of Syria, Turkey and the SMO in the north, the PYD in the east, and HTS in the intervening region. On the Latakia side, a Russian-backed autonomous Alawite region could be established with the security of its bases. Thus, the idea of Syria's territorial integrity will disappear.
It should be debated whether Turkey should insist on or change its strict policy on Syria's territorial integrity, because this is no longer the reality. The idea of Syria's territorial integrity ended when Israel entered Syria from the south and the US destroyed whatever military value the Syrian government had. Turkey's interlocutor in Syria is no longer only the US but also Israel. Unfortunately, it is obvious that Israel has no intention of listening to Turkey's suggestions and threats and does not take Turkey into consideration. After all, the US supports Israel unconditionally. If we remember the previous Trump era, it is certain that this support will increase even more with Trump taking over the administration. In this new conjuncture, Turkey cannot solve any problem related to Syria, including its own security problems, by fighting and having problems with these two powers, one regional and one global.
Turkey should recognise this reality and shape its policy accordingly. These new developments have shown that the guarantorship of Turkey, Russia and Iran over Syria, which was formed with the Astana process, has come to an end. The guarantor countries of the new state structure likely to be formed in the new Syria may be the USA and Israel together with Turkey. Russia and Iran have been pacified both regionally and globally by the US and Israel. Eurasianist utopian policies are difficult to realise. The best policy for Turkey, in a realist perspective, is to improve its relations with all components of the Syrian state and the new guarantors. Of course, the interests and interests of the US and Israel may overlap with Turkey's interests and interests. It is possible to prevent this conflict by acting together, not in opposition. Turkey needs reconciliation, not fighting, in order to protect its interests and interests and to avoid a problem of survival.
It is not for nothing that the genius who founded the country said ‘Peace at home, peace in the world’ .
