strategy

Will the Greater Western Black Sea From Switzerland Draw Turkey Into the G-10?

“Turkey did not fall from the G-20, it will remain in the G-20. Because the economy is not the only criterion for the G-20, known as the “Group of 20s,” and it does not consist of the world's 20 largest economies. Not all countries in the world's 20 largest economies are members of the G-20, and not all G-20 members are among the 20 largest economies."

Labor Day. Then we entered the Ramadan Feast.

Owners of labor and patience deserve these holidays until the end.

Today is Saturday, the holidays are behind, but effort and patience are always needed.

Where labor and patience are not popular, there is regression.

G-20 Countries Or Group of 20s

First of all, let's say at the beginning that we will say the last thing, so that the expressiveness of our purpose is clear. Three little questions answered:

Which countries are members of the G-20?

from the Continent of Europe;

Turkey,
Britain,
Germany,
France,
Italy,
Russia
European Union (EU),
Spain is not a member, but attends the meetings as a "permanent guest member".

from the Americas;

USA,
Canada,
Mexican,
Argentina,
Brazil;

from Asia-Pacific;

Chinese,
India,
Japan,
South Korea,
Indonesia,

from the Continent of Australia;

Australia,

from the African Continent;

South Africa Republic,

from the Middle East;

Saudi Arabia.

What is the G-20, why and when was it formed?

The G-20 is a multinational global organization that holds 60 percent of the world's population, and 85 percent and 75 percent of the economy and trade, respectively. Although the organization is said to have been established "with the aim of more representation of emerging economies in global economic decision-making processes and a more stable structure of the international financial system", it can also be included in the hidden agenda as it "makes a move to prevent the emergence of rival actors from global actors".

As a matter of fact, the G-20 was established in 1999 based on two criteria in the international system:

Being one of the major developed countries,
Strategic importance and weight.

Since Turkey's human geography is of critical importance, it is one of the countries that meet both criteria.

Has Turkey fallen out of the G-20?

It didn't fall. But it could not be among the top 20 economies after 2020.

The table below shows the ranking of the countries with the largest GDP in 2015 and 2021 (Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2022.) [2]

Bird's Eye View Switzerland

Switzerland, the smallest country with the highest recognition after the Vatican, is among the 20 largest economies with a per capita income of 94,000 USD and a gross national product of 832 billion USD[3] in 2022. Switzerland, a Confederation consisting of six half 26 cantons, is a bird's eye view when abridged from the Turkish Ministry of Commerce sources: [4]

- "It is a landlocked country with an area of 41,285 km² located in Western and Central Europe." “30,741 km² of it is fertile (12,700 km² of forest, 15,300 km² of arable land, etc.), 2,457 km² of inhabitable areas) and 10,828 km² of unproductive lands."

- “The country with the most mountainous area in Europe has the Alps in the south and southeast of the country, and the Swiss Plateau lies in the north of the Alps. The said plateau constitutes 30% of the country's surface area.

- “The height of the country above sea level varies between 193 meters and 4,634 meters, and therefore climatic conditions differ between regions. The vegetation also varies accordingly. Olive groves, vineyards, oak and beech, pine and fir trees can be seen in the country, while on the other side there are pastures in the high mountains and mountainous regions covered with snow for a long time.

“The weather condition is generally mild, but it changes according to the altitude. While the winters are cold, cloudy, rainy/snowy, the summer months vary between cool and hot, rains are seen from time to time, and the weather can be humid and cloudy.

-“The distance between the north and the south of the country is 220 km, and the distance between the east and the west is 350 km. the country; It has borders with Germany (346 km), France (572 km), Italy (734 km), Austria (165 km) and Liechtenstein (41 km).

-“The main cities are the capital Bern, Zurich, Basel, Geneva, Lausanne.”

- “According to the human development index, Switzerland ranks second among 189 countries in the world. According to 2020 data, 73.9% of the population lives in cities.

- “Lakes and mountains are important for tourism”: “Switzerland, located in the hydrographic center of Europe, is the source of many rivers. The most important of these are the Rhône, which flows into the Mediterranean, and the Rhine, which flows into the North Sea.” “The largest lake in Switzerland is Lake Geneva. Besides Lake Constance and Lake Neuchâtel, there are dozens of lakes such as Lake Four Cantons and Lake Zurich”.

-“Swiss trains run like clockwork and, in fact, Switzerland probably has the most reliable train network in Europe. By train, you can go almost anywhere quickly and safely. In addition, you can swallow your tongue in the face of the sights you watch and witness.[5]”

- Switzerland has Worldwide Brands: “Watch like Vacheron Constantin, Rolex, Longines, Omega, Tissot, Cartier, Bank & Finance like UBS Group AG, Credit Suisse Group AG, Jewelry like Chopard, Toblerone, Nestle, Lindt & Sprüngli, It has Chocolate like Milka, Clothing like Mammut, Akris and Fogal, Pharmaceuticals like Novartis, Roche, Ricola, Pocket Knife like Victorinox, Coffee like Nescafé, Mövenpick, Bushido Premium Coffee, Davidoff, Egoiste and nearly 20 cars[7]

Looking at Turkey-Switzerland-Western Black Sea Region BK10 (TR) (Table-1);

Switzerland, which has twice the population of the Western Black Sea Region, is Turkey's province. When Sakarya is included (UK11), its area is almost half of the Western Black Sea Region and one-twentieth of Turkey. However, this small landlocked country not only produces 33 times more than the Western Black Sea region, but also produces 150 billion USD more national product annually than Turkey. This situation is also reflected in personal national income, each Swiss citizen earns 16 times more than Turkish citizens living in the region and 12 times more than citizens throughout the country, respectively. The region is growing less than both countries with similar growth. While the Western Black Sea is more homogeneous than both countries, only Switzerland does not have a coastline.

Will Little Switzerland from the Western Black Sea Push Turkey Out of the G-20?

“Turkey's growth has reached the highest rate (11 percent) among the G20 countries in 2021”[8] However, World Bank and IMF data show that in 2021, Turkey left the top 20 economies and ranked 21st after Switzerland. shows regression.

Moreover, at the end of the year, Turkey will fall behind Poland and Taiwan in 2022 and will regress to 23rd place[9].

But it will not stay out of the G-20.

Because economic size alone does not always make sense.

Strategic importance and weight are equally important.

Not all G-20 member countries are among the 20 largest economies in the world. Some come from smaller economies. Therefore, not all of the top 20 economies are members of the G-20.

For this reason, Poland and Taiwan, like Switzerland, may even remove Turkey from being one of the 22 largest economies.

But it can't get it out of the G-20.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) size and GDP per capita are the two most basic criteria of the economic power of countries.

There are other areas of power such as strategic importance, sphere of influence, military power.

The country's total national income is calculated cumulatively by valuing all goods produced in a period over the average market prices for that year.

The average national income per capita is obtained by dividing this amount by the population.

It is obvious that general economic indicators have not been positive over the years.

Economist Mahfi Eğilmez presented the developments of 7 years (now it has been 8 years) to our attention by comparing the years 2015 and 2021 in the analysis he made in his blog[10]. Counting this year, Year 8:

"There have been the most serious changes in the last seven years, while Turkey and Brazil have experienced the most deceleration in the last period, while Iran seems to have reached the position of the country with the highest output".

-“In terms of income per capita, while Turkey was in the 66th rank in 2015, it seems to have regressed to the 78th rank in 2021. In the last 6 years, Turkey's decline in both GDP and per capita income is extremely striking."

- “The table above and the decrease in per capita income clearly show that the thesis that things are getting worse in the world where people take shelter in relation to the deterioration in the economy is not true.”

-“IMF estimated the year-end inflation rate as 52.4 percent. If this forecast is realized, it is understood that there will be no serious decrease in inflation at the end of the year, although it is foreseen that the inflation, which was 61.4 percent as of March, will decrease slightly.”

Will the Greater Western Black Sea From Switzerland Draw Turkey Into the G-10?

“Turkey, which aims to be among the 10 largest economies in the world, will become the 23rd largest economy in the world with a GDP of 692 billion, according to the IMF report dated April 2022”[11]

Top 10 is a big dream for now. Our top 23 possible locations.

A new perspective is inevitable in Turkey. Basins and connections should be considered.

Construction has been used for years as the engine of growth. It can now be made the locomotive of regional growth.

Basin planning should not be ignored. Regional development model. The locomotive must be the West Black Sea.

Will the Western Black Sea be Turkey's new locomotive?

Switzerland produces more than Turkey, which is 20 times bigger than itself. In a narrower, more closed area than the Western Black Sea. Not everything can be tied to the Nazis' gold.

If Switzerland, a terrestrial country with twice the population of the Western Black Sea, produces 33 times more than the Western Black Sea, our region, which opens to the world with a sea connection, can gain the ability to produce even more.

Because the region has a homogeneous structure. Its natural structure is milder and more beautiful than Switzerland.

In fact, Switzerland does not have many natural resources. But the Western Black Sea reaches natural gas from Filyos, steel from Karabük, coal from Zonguldak and offers it to our country.

It should definitely increase the production efficiency of the Western Black Sea Region. Why would the Swiss earn tens of times more than our local people?

If Sapanca Lake, which is located in Sakarya Province in the Western Black Sea, is counted, it has many lakes such as Melen, Abant, Akgöller, Acarlar Lake, Yedigöller and Gölcük[12]. These lakes are too small to compare in size with the lakes in Switzerland, but their beauty is magnificent. Switzerland's Mediterranean

The Rhône flowing into the Iz and the Rhine flowing into the North Sea is no bigger than Sakarya in the West and Yeşilırmak and Kızılırmak in the East, which surrounds the Western Black Sea. Yes, Switzerland's lakes and rivers are convenient for transportation, but the country has no coastline. The Western Black Sea Region has hundreds of kilometers of beaches and bays.

Because Switzerland is a brand…

Confidence attracts investment. Organization production is booming. Like brand country name. Peace and justice mean development… Freedom is the key to security.

“Switzerland is a country with world-renowned brands in many fields such as accessories, clothing, food, and automobiles. Nestlé, one of the Swiss brands, is known as the largest food company in the world. Another Swiss brand, Rolex, is seen as the best watch brand in the world. Brands such as Toblerone, Lindt, Swatch, UBS, Victorinox, Novartis, Roche are the most famous Swiss brands.[13]”

Conclusion

Switzerland is the vault of the market economy. No one knows the Swiss Prime Minister or President, whoever he is. Because Switzerland is the embodiment of the system. People don't matter. The Western Black Sea, on the other hand, has to carry the production methods from the Sumerians and Hittites to the Industrial Revolution and beyond. The 4-legged process to be reached is described as follows[14]:

The “First Industrial Revolution”, which highlights steam power-based machinery and mass production from the economy based on agriculture and manpower, The “Second Industrial Revolution” based on Henry Ford's low-cost mass production by applying the moving assembly line and implemented with Taylor's principles based on electrical energy, The "Third Industrial Revolution" or "Information Technology Era", which emerged with the use of electronics and information technologies, is the result of smart systems originating from the Internet and wireless internet, innovative approaches, new technologies, computers equipped with advanced technologies, new software and the interactive work of qualified human resources. “Industry 4.0” or “Fourth Industrial Revolution”,

It should be caught from the end to the beginning at the same time.

The pandemic period has largely liberalized the physical connection of production. It has provided important evidence for the acceleration of the "Digital Transformation" in this World and the necessity of establishing a "Cyber Physical System".

“The working population in Switzerland is 5.09 million. Of these, 3.5 million are Swiss and 1.6 million are foreigners. 19.9% of the working foreign population come to Switzerland to work daily and reside in neighboring countries.[15]”

Istanbul is a medium-sized West Black Sea World city. However, BK10 is one of the closest neighbors of the western Black Sea in the core concept. “Turkey's most populous province, Istanbul, has surpassed 131 countries with its population of 15 million 67 thousand 724 people.[16]” Half of them are employed[17].

Just as hundreds of thousands of people living in other countries can work in Switzerland, more than millions of people working in Istanbul can live humanely in the Western Black Sea hinterland with nature.

The indispensable condition for this will be the construction of the Western Black Sea High Speed Train Line and the transportation and communication networks integrated with it[18].

Life in the green field and high value-added production in the "Cyber-Physical System" enable strong brands to emerge.

If it comes from Taiwan and Poland, not Switzerland, which produces more than Turkey, it cannot remove Turkey from the G-202. Couldn't get it out.

But if the Western Black Sea Region is considered as Turkey's new development locomotive and green-digital development methods are applied, the Western Black Sea High Speed Train Line is built accordingly.

If tourism, informatics, education and industrial-agricultural production become brands…

If natural gas off Filyos, coal in Zonguldak, steel produced in Karabük are used...

Undoubtedly, the Western Black Sea pulls Turkey into the G-10.