Provocative Thoughts, New Horizons (2)

Within the framework of the military operations in Ukraine, you have read countless articles and watched videos that analyze the situation of the parties in the war moment by moment. Why did the Russian Air Force fail, for example? Why hasn't he achieved air superiority yet? What faults does it have?

To these familiar questions, I would like to add the following two questions:

Technical Questions Regarding the Russia-Ukraine War:

Who wants to buy Russian-made military aviation platforms from now on?
How will countries that already have Russian-made military aviation platforms maintain their power after all these isolation and sanctions?

Buy Russian-made planes?

Let's consider the answer to the first question together. Those who are interested in the subject know. Questions about Soviet/Russian military aviation quality have been a hot topic since the Arab-Israeli wars. I had previously published an article on STRASAM, including much more recent examples on this subject. If you haven't read it, I suggest you read it from the link below.

https://strasam.org/savunma/havacilik-ve-uzay-sanayii/rus-savas-ucaklari-turkiye-icin-cozum-olkazan-mi-422

Now, the subject has reached a certain conclusion with the help of Russian warplanes used by the Russian Air Force. Russian military aviation school; The concept is behind the times in all aspects including the platform and ammunition. For this reason, we can predict that foreign sales channels will remain closed for any reason other than "compulsory".

Russian military / civil aviation industry; It would be realistic to expect it to concentrate entirely on domestic needs and modernization efforts, at least in the next 15-20 years. However, some countries that have been using/knowing these planes for a long time, knowing their weaknesses and making efforts to eliminate them are within the knowledge of those interested in the aerospace industry. India is one of these countries.

India's Warplanes Experience:

After the Cold War, Russian aviation tried to fill the gaps in modern electronic and optical systems, primarily with subsystems procured from France. For example, the first targeting pod used in Su-30 aircraft was the Damocles of France. As a customer of French military aviation, India has both maximized this unseen support and strengthened it with the much more advanced Israeli electronics industry. Therefore, it makes sense to consider the Su-30 aircraft, which form the backbone of the Indian Air Force, as the product of a four-country consortium: Russian + Indian + French + Israeli.

Possible Problems Awaiting Russian Aerospace Industry:

We can say that Russia's access to military electronics, which it can obtain from other countries, will be restricted, as it will enter an increasingly tighter isolation period. Especially since the very first day, limiting this country's access to all advanced technologies has been clearly stated as a goal. This makes it logical for Russia to start looking for a proxy in the field of military aviation that the West will also turn a blind eye to. This logic pushes us to search for the answer to the second question.

Countries that use Russian Aircraft right now:

There are many countries that have Russian Military Aviation platforms and have to maintain them. Their primary need is to ensure the flow of spare parts. The second requirement is the provision of necessary factory level maintenance service. The third need is the modernization of these systems to approach western standards.

It is clear that there will be a need for a deputy for all three needs. Because the difficulties faced by Russia are obvious even in the money transfer part within the framework of the current sanctions. In this context, although there are countries with high experience such as India, it can be predicted that these countries will not offer sufficient profitability and control opportunities for Russia.

What Can Turkey Do?

Ukrainian personnel with qualified knowledge in the field of Soviet / Russian aviation can transfer to Turkey. Russia, on the other hand, can direct companies and employees in its current aviation industry to Azerbaijan. Currently, it is obvious that Azerbaijan can achieve a unique position with its strategic position against Iran, its friendship with Israel, its rising indispensability in Europe's future energy policies, its proximity to the Russian language and culture, and its inclination to western technologies.

To re-establish a Russian military aviation center indirectly in Azerbaijan, which will be undertaken in Azerbaijan, shaped with the support of Turkey, Israel and Russia, that the West will condone and the East will hope for a sustainable performance, and to Turkey through all the countries in the region and Azerbaijan in the field of aircraft industry. It can open an important door of opportunity. It is possible to attempt such a purpose and I consider it the right time for timing.

Could There Be An Opportunity For Turkey?

Of course, all of the current defense industry exporters in the world will grab some of the market share that Russia will lose and increase their turnover. 

it will flow. The USA, China and France are the first countries that come to mind in this context. However, it can be said that this gap cannot be fully closed by the said countries, and many alternative countries in the market will also benefit from it. Of course, Turkey is among the alternatives to this.

I intend to present the options regarding Turkey to your attention in a separate article.

Russian aviation culture is quite foreign to our country, which has developed completely within the NATO military aviation culture and has maintained this feature for generations. However, if an alternative channel can be created, the importance of the knowledge that we can obtain by watching this channel and interpret it according to our own standards is obvious. Since the existence of a brotherly country like Azerbaijan and its inclination towards the Russian school are combined with the opportunities that the Russia-Ukraine war will bring, it seems quite possible that these gains will be sustainable both inside and outside our border.

Life Doesn't Accept Emptiness:

Of course, "The horse is neighing for its owner." and of course "The horse is for the one who rides and the one who takes the sword." But our age is also quite cruel. Taking risks means seizing opportunity. Unfortunately, in our age, blood flowing in one country turns into cash flowing in another country. It is clear that we will have to take advantage of the opportunities that come our way in this unscrupulous and cruel age.

(To be continued)