Turkey's Policies Regarding North-Eastern Syria and Northern Iraq

Northeastern Syria and northern Iraq are two strategic regions that are decisive for Turkey's security, energy and foreign policy priorities. These two regions are important for Turkey primarily in the context of counter-terrorism, border security, energy corridors, migration flows and diplomatic balances. Today, alongside the rich oil and natural gas reserves in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Iraq, the instability triggered by the Arab Spring and Israel's efforts to consolidate its dominance in areas such as Gaza, Lebanon, and the Golan Heights through maximalist policies amounting to genocide have placed the region, and indeed the Middle East, at the centre of the global power struggle. Meanwhile, major powers such as the US, Russia, the UK and France are pursuing their interests in the region through ‘proxy wars’ rather than direct intervention. In this context, minority groups in Syria, such as the Kurds, Assyrians and Druze, continue to serve as tools for imperialist interests against the central government.

The activities of the US and other states, particularly in north-eastern Syria and northern Iraq, influence the direction of Turkey's regional strategy and shape Ankara's multidimensional foreign policy approach.

Turkey's priority in northern Iraq is to eliminate the PKK's capacity to establish bases in the region and to create a secure zone along the Iraqi border. To this end, alongside the ‘Claw’ series of operations that have been conducted in this region for years, permanent base areas have been established in the region.

The Security Agreement signed between Turkey and Iraq in 2024 has provided a legal basis for the Turkish military presence in northern Iraq. The US is working closely with Kurdish tribes in the region to erode Iranian influence in Iraq. This policy, which Washington is pursuing by acting as a kind of guardian for the Kurds, poses a security risk for Turkey. Israel, meanwhile, views the Kurdish elements in the region as a counterbalance to Iran and takes a cautious approach to Turkey's military power and security-focused operations in the region.

Turkey's Syria Policy

Turkey's primary goal in Syria is to prevent the PKK/YPG from establishing a state and to ensure border security. With operations after 2016 (Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring, etc.), Turkey has established de facto control along the Azez–Jarablus–Afrin–Tel Abyad–Rasulayn line. These regions are important for Turkey in terms of both secure settlement and migration management. In fact, the gradual normalisation process between Turkey and Syria began in 2022 with Russia's mediation. Following the regime change on 8 December 2024, the Damascus-Ankara axis has gained the opportunity for stronger cooperation.

Ankara has intensified diplomatic relations with Damascus and never left the Sharif government alone, so that the Central Syrian Government under Sharif's leadership could free itself from the influence of imperialist states and build Syria's future in line with Turkey's expectations.

On the other hand, Israel has been closely monitoring Turkey's increasing military and political presence in Syria and has continued to seek manoeuvres that could disrupt Ankara's Syria policies as much as possible. While avoiding direct ground operations in Syria, Israel is conducting an intelligence-based and low-profile “Shadow War”. The aim is to prevent the transfer of weapons and missiles to Syria.

In his 2024 Parliament opening speech, President Erdoğan stated, "Israel, acting on the dream of the promised lands, with complete religious fanaticism, after Palestine and Lebanon, will set its sights on, I say this clearly, our homeland. All calculations are currently based on this." This statement points to another reality in this context: the existence of a potential threat on the horizon. The Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which originate in Turkey, located within the Promised Land, are of great importance not only as water sources but also geopolitically. Our control over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers gives Turkey regional manoeuvring capability and means it has the upper hand in negotiations with other countries. Thanks to the GAP project implemented in the region, Turkey has gained both energy security and control over water resources. Therefore, the Euphrates and Tigris rivers should also be seen as cornerstones of socio-economic stability in the context of the fight against terrorism.

In conclusion, Syria and Northern Iraq are of extreme strategic importance in terms of Turkey's national security, energy supply security, and diplomatic manoeuvring space.

The ‘safe zones’ established by Turkey along its border are considered critical in terms of both managing migration and breaking the PKK/YPG's territorial dominance. The most important policy Turkey should pursue in the coming period is to carry out significant operations against the PKK/YPG presence. (The fact that the PKK and its extension, the YPG, are under US control should not be forgotten.) Furthermore, Mosul and Kirkuk, where Turkmen are in the majority, are also of great importance in terms of the strategy Turkey will implement on the ground. The Claw operations conducted by Turkey indirectly play a role in strengthening the security of Turkmen regions.

Although the PKK terrorist organisation has announced that it has withdrawn from Turkey and laid down its arms many times during the process, it is known that it continues to amass forces in northern Iraq. On 26 October 2025, they announced that they had withdrawn from Turkey and were stationed in northern Iraq. The Terror-Free Turkey, Terror-Free Region process continues. We are hopeful about this process. However, it should be known that neither the Turkish Nation nor the Turkish Armed Forces will permit any terrorist organisation that poses a threat to our country at our borders and seeks to undermine our nation-state structure.