Attention, Food Security Risk Increases!

Russia and Ukraine are at war, the world is starving:

Russia's military invasion of Ukraine continues. Strategists and international relations experts largely agree that the world will evolve towards a new order at the end of this operation.

From now on, we seem to live in a world where the global game will be re-established, the balance of power in the world will undergo regional changes, the importance of geopolitics will increase even more, and new sharing wars will take place through movements such as populism and micro-nationalism, which have been fostered by the neoliberal system.

Global powers will focus on creating new power balances and sharing calculations over Water, Energy and Food geopolitics in a re-established order. For this reason, countries will reconsider the threats that may arise through the new energy, food and water geopolitics, which has been shaped even more since the beginning of the 21st century.

While doing these studies, they will also take into account the national security threat posed by global climate change in water, energy, food and environment.

This will direct threat perceptions in many countries to the issue of ensuring water, energy and food supply security.

War in Ukraine Raised Agricultural Products Prices:

Agricultural products prices, which were 35 percent higher in January compared to last year, are expected to increase further as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that global food prices hit an all-time high in February, led by vegetable oils and dairy products.

It is estimated that the decrease in the production and export of foods such as wheat, corn, barley and sunflower in Ukraine, which is seen as the granary of the world due to its fertile lands, will have a very negative impact on food prices. It is noted that Russia, one of the world's leading fertilizer producers, may make cuts that will hit global agricultural activities due to the sanctions due to the occupation.

In its assessment last month, the World Bank highlighted Egypt and Mozambique, which import wheat and oil mostly from Russia and Ukraine, among the countries that could be most negatively affected by the developments in Ukraine. Egypt meets 80 percent of its wheat import from Russia.

Among the Risky Countries in Turkey:

The effects of climate change vary in different geographies in Turkey as well as in the world. There are scientific predictions that the lands suitable for wheat cultivation in the world will shift to more Northern regions in the near future. So much so that the frozen lands of Canada and Russia, which are not suitable for agriculture for most of the year, are thought to be the most suitable regions for grain production in the middle future.

Turkey is among the countries with high environmental and economic vulnerability due to climate change. Regional droughts have started to be seen more frequently, especially in regions starting from Southeastern Anatolia along the Mediterranean to the Aegean and in Central Anatolia. As a result of this, in the last two years, in which regional droughts were experienced in a row, there was a great decrease in wheat production. In the coming years, the problem will increase if some lands become unproductive by being unable to withstand the changes in drought and rain patterns.

Since 2000, wheat cultivation areas have decreased from about 9 million hectares to around 7 million. It is clear that it will be more difficult to ensure supply security in irrigation water in some regions in the coming years. Moreover, we also know that there are problems in productivity due to the problems caused by excessive and unconscious use of water related to soil chemistry. One of the ongoing problem areas is that the use of fertilizers is not made consciously and under control. For these reasons, productivity growth is unlikely in the coming years.

We must use our strategic resources such as soil and water correctly:

We have entered a period in which the strategic importance of water and land resources, as well as other natural resources, has increased and their sustainable use has become linked to national security.

In summary, our water and soil resources are our strategic resources, and the importance of government policies for their correct use has also increased. In this context, our food supply security should be addressed on the basis of the state's agricultural policies and reorganized with an understanding that includes all relevant institutions and stakeholders. In the initial period of this regulation, state policies will play a dominant role. Because the state, which directly or indirectly determines the prices of products and inputs, is also the most important political actor with the capacity to regulate the agricultural sector with its measures and directions at different levels.

However, it is imperative that state policies that will ensure the correct use of strategic resources are predictable and stable. Contrary to this, it feeds the spiral cycle and a chaotic structure that has been experienced for years. Government policies are also of great importance for taking measures against climate change and developing policies beyond price determination. The resilience of producers in the face of the changes created/will be created by climate change can only be possible with institutional guidance, not individual efforts.

We Need Renewed Institutional Structures and Innovative Management Approach:

Some problems that have become chronic in our country so far require the state to not only suggest institutional solutions, but also to actively guide in practice and even to engage in co-production practices in some regions. This approach will be perceived as the assurance of a new opening in the agricultural sector.

Experts state that the effects of climate change on agriculture will continue to increase in the coming years. In this process, the state needs to start structural arrangements that will increase the power and movement capacity of the farmer as soon as possible.

As a result, there have been signs that supply security may be at risk as a result of distrust in government policies in agriculture. Conscious policies determined according to the preferences and interests of national and global capital and market forces, which have been maintained for years, played an important role in shaping the insecure and unstable environment in agriculture.

Now is the Time for Rehabilitation and Structural Transformation:

Many economic, geopolitical and meteorological threats that have increased in the recent period have more clearly revealed the importance and priority of ensuring our food security in our country. We need a radical structural transformation in this regard. For this, a restructuring strategy should be established that will gather all public institutions, farmer organizations, universities, non-governmental organizations, cooperatives, chambers of agriculture within the agricultural production and management structure in an integrated management approach.

With the base prices, support purchases and incentives to be applied today, some results that the farmer may desire can be obtained in the short term. However, this will not solve the structural problems that we are facing, which have emerged over the years. For this, all relevant institutions and organizations should be clamped together around a new Food Security Doctrine aimed at increasing the state's confidence in new agricultural policies. This can only be achieved by a political will that believes in a rational, visionary and national policy for radical transformation in agriculture.

Conclusion:

Recent developments around us at a dizzying pace and Turkey's geopolitics are putting new and very important duties in front of the managers in the new period. As the Republic of Turkey, we have to reduce our vulnerabilities by rapidly implementing policies to ensure our water, energy, food and environmental security.